New Poly DVC rumors

[MichiganDVC]

So, here's what's been floating around the last few days:

1. Poly DVC will be expanded to include Tokelau
2. Poly DVC will only be available to Poly DVC owners, not to other DCV members
3. No cash reservations allowed for Poly DVC

Clearly #1 is a non-issue. But are #2 and #3 even possible?! If possible, are they likely?

My thoughts on why #2 isn't likely: Would Poly DVC members be able to make reservations at other DVC resorts, too? Because if so, it wouldn't be fair if I, as a DVC owner, have difficulty making a reservation at a resort like Boardwalk because a bunch of Poly owners have reserved there. And then I would also be shut out of Poly. Wouldn't this policy leave Poly without full occupancy at some times when their owners inevitable stay elsewhere?

Thoughts?

 

[disneynutz]

2&3 won't happen, the strength of a timeshare product is being able to book at various resorts and Disney loves cash money.

Bill

 

[MichiganDVC]

2&3 won't happen, the strength of a timeshare product is being able to book at various resorts and Disney loves cash money.

Bill

That's what I'm thinking, but I keep hearing these rumors....

 

[tjkraz]

2. Poly DVC will only be available to Poly DVC owners, not to other DCV members

That's been a "rumor" attached to every DVC resort added in the last 10 years. Any guesses as to how often it's panned-out thus far?

For the most part, you are correct that blocking other owners from DVC Poly would also require blocking Poly owners from booking at other DVCs. There are some maneuverings DVC could perform in order to make it happen (Dean has discussed in the past--if memory serves, it involves DVD buying-back points at other resorts and placing them in an entirely separate system along with the Poly.) But even that would dramatically limit Poly owners' access to other resorts.

I cannot really fathom why they would consider such a move. Why go to the trouble when the booking window gives Poly owners a 4-month head start for all reservations?

I don't really see how this would make people more likely to buy at the Poly. Prospects who have knowledge of the resale market will also quickly learn that booking a resort like the Poly will be a crapshoot at 7 months.

 

[tjkraz]

That's what I'm thinking, but I keep hearing these rumors....

Rumor or speculation? Here's how things usually go down:

Post on forum #1: "I wonder if DVC would block other owners from accessing the Poly."
Post on forum #2: "I read a rumor on another forum that DVC will block other owners from the Poly."

Or it originates with someone who doesn't really understand timeshares / DVC.

Or it originates with a DVC ASA or Guide...whose sole purpose is to sell new points even if it means stretching the truth.

Don't mean to sound too caddy but if you search the DIS, you'll find similar speculation regarding AKV, BLT, VGC and VGF at a minimum. You'll also find "rumors" that Art of Animation would have DVC villas, that Grand Floridian villas would all have concierge access and a host of others.

I just don't see the upside for DVC. It isn't going to drive a lot of additional sales, yet it has the potential to alienate (upset / enrage) the hundreds-of-thousands of current owners.

There aren't a lot of potential buyers who find a 4-month booking window to be inadequate, to the point of deciding not to buy.

 

[MichiganDVC]

Rumor or speculation? Here's how things usually go down:

Post on forum #1: "I wonder if DVC would block other owners from accessing the Poly."
Post on forum #2: "I read a rumor on another forum that DVC will block other owners from the Poly."

Or it originates with someone who doesn't really understand timeshares / DVC.

Or it originates with a DVC ASA or Guide...whose sole purpose is to sell new points even if it means stretching the truth.

Don't mean to sound too caddy but if you search the DIS, you'll find similar speculation regarding AKV, BLT, VGC and VGF at a minimum. You'll also find "rumors" that Art of Animation would have DVC villas, that Grand Floridian villas would all have concierge access and a host of others.

I just don't see the upside for DVC. It isn't going to drive a lot of additional sales, yet it has the potential to alienate (upset / enrage) the hundreds-of-thousands of current owners.

There aren't a lot of potential buyers who find a 4-month booking window to be inadequate, to the point of deciding not to buy.

Here's the source. You're right, not a knowledgeable source about DVC, but very knowledgeable about Poly: http://www.tikimanpages.com/poly/news/item/200-more-changes

 

[tjkraz]

Here's the source. You're right, not a knowledgeable source about DVC, but very knowledgeable about Poly: http://www.tikimanpages.com/poly/news/item/200-more-changes

Steve's exact comment is: "I even heard that they bungalows could not be booked if you did not buy into the Polynesian DVC. "

Not knowing the context in which that information was passed to him--or the origin--it strikes me as a function of the booking windows more than anything else. With tens-of-thousands of Poly owners and only 20 bungalows, those rooms will not often slip through at 7 months. (Unless they are vastly overpriced, of course.)

Going back to my earlier comments, I really don't see why DVC would bother placing a legal restriction on those specific units. They WILL sell fixed weeks, giving a few high rollers the ability to lock-in a bungalow for 50 years. All Poly owners WILL get that 4 month booking advantage.

If DVC were to flat-out ban other owners from reserving the bungalows, suddenly you have the entire membership body on high alert. Now they're wondering what sort of restriction will be next. That level of concern / mistrust would not be healthy for DVC.

And there would be little value to the restriction in the first place. There just aren't many prospects who would refuse to buy because other owners can book the Poly bungalows at 7 months.

As for the restriction on cash reservations, that would be tough to pull off if the Poly participates in DVC's other exchange programs. They might be able to keep the bungalows specifically away from CRO, but not every DVC villa.

Sales guides could still TELL prospects that the villas won't be bookable with cash...another stretching of the truth. And they could even limit / control cash access for a couple years while Poly points are being actively sold.

But there will come a time where Disney really doesn't care who is staying in those villas. If Poly owners trade out to DCL, ABD or some other non-Disney destination, they'll need cash revenue from villas to balance the transaction.

 

[drusba]

Disney cannot put Poly into the current DVC system without subjecting it to reservations by owners from other DVC resorts. It would have to create a whole new separate system for it under which Poly owners and other DVC owners would not even be part of the same program and Poly owners would be the only ones who could reserve at Poly but they could not reserve at any other DVC resort.

The no cash reservations point probably proves that the Poly owner only rumor is false because the no cash reservation point is completely preposterous. DVD always retains a protion of each resort for rental and it rents other vacation time it gets via trade-outs, foreclosures, and exercise of ROFR, and can rent anything not yet reserved at 60 days or less out so rooms are not left empty. Moreover, while a resort is being sold it rents out the portions not yet sold. That is how DVD/Disney make some additonal money and assure rooms are filled, and DVD would be out of its business mind to ever give up a right to rent rooms for cash.

 

[Sammie]

I would say no cash reservations for the bungalows is very likely since that is the policy for BW view and standard room at BWV and concierge at AKL.

As to the other I don't see it happening, as TJ said there is no financial benefit for DVC to do that.

As hard as it is for some right now to imagine that any DVC member that has Polynesian as their home would ever want to trade out, 50-60 years is a very long time and eventually they will want to. For one thing, who knows what is next on the DVC horizon.

And yes I definitely see them selling fixed weeks because again that is a financial advantage to them.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

Based on the current conversations across several Disney forums, it truly seems that Disney's Polynesian will have the greatest villa inventory on the monorail beam. With three potential longhouses and several bungalows, it seems very likely that there will be more than 428 total villas.

Personally, I think it might actually be easier to book the Polynesian than Grand Floridian during off-peak times (e.g. end of August).

 

[nd43]

To be honest, I just do not get the infatuation with Poly. It was the first resort we used 15+ years ago. When I visited it over Christmas, it was not much different. In many, many places it is very dated. It even has drop ceilings with square foam tiles in many common areas (something no current deluxe resort would even consider). I realize that is not critical but it just speaks to how dated this property is compared to the more recent efforts. Compared to AKL, there is really no comparison to the quality of facility (theme aside).

The location is great. The theme most likely has a broader appeal. However, this place needs major updates.

Of course, I would say the same thing about the Contemporary (outside of the theme having broader appeal) and BLT sold really well. Perhaps there are enough romantics about Poly to sell it out quickly.

However, to put it in a class way above the other DVCs just makes no sense to me. There are two other DVCs that have monorail access. GF has aged better in IMO as an overall resort and got a completely new building. BLT has walking access to MK and the new separate building has allowed them to at least modernize the DVC area. Poly has not aged well as a resort and they are re-using old buildings and does not have walking access.

At best, to me, it is just another monorail DVC option with a different theme. That is a really good thing (and I am sure the updates will help) but not "let's create a bunch of new rules" type of thing because this is so special / different?

 

[SpaceMountain77]

In many, many places it is very dated. Poly has not aged well as a resort and they are re-using old buildings and does not have walking access.

I have mentioned this in other threads and am quite sure someone will chastise me for it. While I certainly appreciate the nostalgia, I do not understand how 30+ year old buildings will be in such demand. BLT and VGF owners purchased a new building. Bungalows aside, Polynesian owners will be purchasing renovated longhouses. In 2064, VGF will be 50-years-old. In 2065, Rapa Nui and Tahiti will be 80-years-old.

 

[Dean]

So, here's what's been floating around the last few days:

1. Poly DVC will be expanded to include Tokelau
2. Poly DVC will only be available to Poly DVC owners, not to other DCV members
3. No cash reservations allowed for Poly DVC

Clearly #1 is a non-issue. But are #2 and #3 even possible?! If possible, are they likely?

My thoughts on why #2 isn't likely: Would Poly DVC members be able to make reservations at other DVC resorts, too? Because if so, it wouldn't be fair if I, as a DVC owner, have difficulty making a reservation at a resort like Boardwalk because a bunch of Poly owners have reserved there. And then I would also be shut out of Poly. Wouldn't this policy leave Poly without full occupancy at some times when their owners inevitable stay elsewhere?

Thoughts?

#2 and #3 are not possible if the Poly is part of the current DVC. As I read the POS restricting to home resort is not possible. #3 is not possible for the same reasons because if the owners there ever trade for cash type exchanges, there has to be a method to recoup the costs. I suspect this is more in context of availability than actual restrictions.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I would say no cash reservations for the bungalows is very likely since that is the policy for BW view and standard room at BWV and concierge at AKL.

FYI AKL concierge villas have shown up on CRO for cash reservations. I've seen it twice but haven't really looked more than that. I expect the bungalows will also be available for cash reservations thru Disney.

 

[Sammie]

FYI AKL concierge villas have shown up on CRO for cash reservations. I've seen it twice but haven't really looked more than that. I expect the bungalows will also be available for cash reservations thru Disney.

It can happen, very rarely at 60 days, but it is not the norm.

Pretty sure the bungalows will get the same classification as BW view, etc.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

It can happen, very rarely at 60 days, but it is not the norm.

Pretty sure the bungalows will get the same classification as BW view, etc.

The first time I saw it was at 9 1/2 months out and it was available over Christmas. The next year it was similar - actually I think it was a little bit further out. It was not a 60 days out inventory being turned over. I also contacted DVC about this and was told that they could select all categories of rooms at AKV to turn over to CRO.

 

[hakepb]

That's been a "rumor" attached to every DVC resort added in the last 10 years. Any guesses as to how often it's panned-out thus far?

For the most part, you are correct that blocking other owners from DVC Poly would also require blocking Poly owners from booking at other DVCs. There are some maneuverings DVC could perform in order to make it happen (Dean has discussed in the past--if memory serves, it involves DVD buying-back points at other resorts and placing them in an entirely separate system along with the Poly.) But even that would dramatically limit Poly owners' access to other resorts.

I cannot really fathom why they would consider such a move. Why go to the trouble when the booking window gives Poly owners a 4-month head start for all reservations?

I don't really see how this would make people more likely to buy at the Poly. Prospects who have knowledge of the resale market will also quickly learn that booking a resort like the Poly will be a crapshoot at 7 months.

Some people might actually like the limitation of a Poly-only system if it meant they had a better chance of getting a Poly room at the last minute.

 

[tjkraz]

Moreover, while a resort is being sold it rents out the portions not yet sold. That is how DVD/Disney make some additonal money and assure rooms are filled, and DVD would be out of its business mind to ever give up a right to rent rooms for cash.

Excellent point. No matter how high demand may be, it's going to take around 2 years to sell all of the Poly points. Over that time Disney will own thousands of room nights which would be rented for cash.

Disney will not fail to capitalize on that asset.

Based on the current conversations across several Disney forums, it truly seems that Disney's Polynesian will have the greatest villa inventory on the monorail beam. With three potential longhouses and several bungalows, it seems very likely that there will be more than 428 total villas.

Personally, I think it might actually be easier to book the Polynesian than Grand Floridian during off-peak times (e.g. end of August).

Depends on how you want to count the rooms. If the hotel rooms are being converted to traditional DVC villas, three rooms are needed for each Two Bedroom villa. Assuming most of the 428 rooms you mention are hotel rooms (I didn't check the number), that's equal to around 143 two bedroom equivalents. By comparison, BLT is over twice as large with 295 2Bs.

Some rumors suggest that all of the rooms will actually be converted to Deluxe Studios. In that case, a party of 8-9 individuals would require two connecting rooms. To compare to the number of 2B villas at BLT and VGF, you'd have to count two Studios for every 2B...approx 214 Poly rooms (connecting Studios) vs. 100 2Bs at VGF and 295 at BLT.

I have mentioned this in other threads and am quite sure someone will chastise me for it. While I certainly appreciate the nostalgia, I do not understand how 30+ year old buildings will be in such demand. BLT and VGF owners purchased a new building. Bungalows aside, Polynesian owners will be purchasing renovated longhouses. In 2064, VGF will be 50-years-old. In 2065, Rapa Nui and Tahiti will be 80-years-old.

If they are tearing the rooms down virtually to the structural steel, it's not a huge issue, IMO. It's not like they shut the buildings down...brought in new furniture...and then opened DVC sales a week later.

I think most people are going to decide based upon how the finished product looks. Some people may have reservations over the age but I don't think it will cost Disney significant sales.

Poly doesn't really suit my tastes either but to each their own.

Some people might actually like the limitation of a Poly-only system if it meant they had a better chance of getting a Poly room at the last minute.

It may sound good in theory but owners would not like the corresponding inability to book other DVC resorts. 50 years is a long time to be stuck in one location.

A move like this would cost DVC more sales than it would earn.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

The Grand Floridian is THE flagship of WDW. If they didn't make this change at the GF, it WON'T happen anywhere else. Period.

The Poly DVC is just another DVC. Let's not make it something it's not.

 

[zavandor]

Could they say that all bungalows can be sold as fixed weeks all year around without the 35% limit existing for the VGF?
Even if it's not likely they will ever sell out, guides could say: "if you don't buy a fixed week you won't be able to get a bungalow when they'll be sold out".
This could originate the rumor "you won't get the bungalows if you don't buy them".