New Disney Hotel??

[lockedoutlogic]

Hey @lockedoutlogic,
Did you just finish up a vacation down at WDW?

I'd say the overbuilt in the 90s and now they're meeting the capacity and selecting their target markets. We'll see about Flamingo Crossings. As of October of last year the main developer said there were 7 more sites to choose from and he wanted to announce several new hotels within the year. It's been 9 months with not a peep from them on new plans. Their slow moving nature on FC raises questions in my book, and I'm not ready to count them out yet.

Yep...and I covered that on another thread.

Disney has no desire to run more hotels beyond the vacation club model.

You heard it here first...

There would have to be a proven over 100% demand for the longterm future at a price point that is minimum what the deluxes are now or even higher to consider the construction, Infrastructure, and longterm staffing costs.

That's as likely as a leprechaun riding a purple unicorn to El Dorado

And deluxes aren't flying off the rack at their current rate - even in "good times". If you want a hard example - I got a couple of spare nights at beach club for the last week of June - basically when every American child is out of school - for 52% off at wholesale rate. And on short notice.

Not an impressive reflection of how well they've priced the market. That room should have been sold 6 months out at basically retail or the package equivalent to it.

They know that...which is why the agressive expansion...hoping to build to drive the market is over. Eisner would not continue to build now the way he did 20 years ago...that's what lead to his downfall - the desire to build more that forced budget decisions that lowered the bar on what could be built. It ends up looking cheap.

Why no need for expansion? Because ma and pa don't have the week off and the vacation fund like they did in the late 20th century.

Disney parks are still at their backbone a middle
Class enterprise. There move to position it as an "upper class" one is a gamble. We'll see if they have hedged their bets the right way. Time will tell.

Pop century, port Orleans...we're built for a market that is shrinking...it isn't gonna comeback. Nothing has ever trickled down. Except Ponzi schemes.

Unless you want to pay $415+ in your Trinidad south (it's called TOBAGO) room at Caribbean to make the prospect of building more look good...

In which case - more power to you...

 

[minnie-apple-mouse]

And deluxes aren't flying off the rack at their current rate - even in "good times". If you want a hard example - I got a couple of spare nights at beach club for the last week of June - basically when every American child is out of school - for 52% off at wholesale rate. And on short notice.

Not an impressive reflection of how well they've priced the market. That room should have been sold 6 months out at basically retail or the package equivalent to it..

DVC is kind of a double edged sword for WDW IMO.

Like I say-we get BCV (or GFV, POLY whatever) for free more or less, certainly no need to pay for BC-even at 1/2 off. That's pouring cash down the drain. Plus we can get 2BR's and a kitchen.

Without DVC we would be paying deluxe every night, instead of here and there anyway.

So they have lost a deluxe guest because of DVC, probably not the only one.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

DVC is kind of a double edged sword for WDW IMO.

Like I say-we get BCV for free more or less, certainly no need to pay for BC-even at 1/2 off. That's pouring cash down the drain. Plus we can get 2BR's and a kitchen.

Without DVC we would be paying deluxe every night, instead of here and there anyway.

So they have lost a deluxe guest because of DVC, probably not the only one.

No doubt...

I think another thing that DVC did - much to Disney chagrin - is that it allowed the "90's era" DVC customer to lock in their costs at a much more reasonable rate - when rack prices were...um...more appropriate. That is still the core Disney park clientele...the boomers and the gen x - eisners people.

My inn laws got theirs for $37 a point...that was late 90's... My bottomline ten years ago was still less than half the price now...

Do I like the poly? Yes. Would I like to stay there with DVC? Yes. Would I ever pay $155 or more a point?
Have you lost your mind? - hell no!!!

I would be getting now with my "expensive contract" exactly what I got ten years ago with the "cheap one":

The same four parks - more or less - blizzard, typhoon...same food ( but at lesser quality ...so that's a demerit)...a shopping district at retail...same fireworks...

Same food and wine booths...
Same dole whip...same buses...

Blah blah blah...on and on and on.

 

[minnie-apple-mouse]

No doubt...

I think another thing that DVC did - much to Disney chagrin - is that it allowed the "90's era" DVC customer to lock in their costs at a much more reasonable rate - when rack prices were...um...more appropriate. That is still the core Disney park clientele...the boomers and the gen x - eisners people.

My inn laws got theirs for $37 a point...that was late 90's... My bottomline ten years ago was still less than half the price now...

Do I like the poly? Yes. Would I like to stay there with DVC? Yes. Would I ever pay $155 or more a point?
Have you lost your mind? - hell no!!!

I would be getting now with my "expensive contract" exactly what I got ten years ago with the "cheap one":

The same four parks - more or less - blizzard, typhoon...same food ( but at lesser quality ...so that's a demerit)...a shopping district at retail...same fireworks...

Same food and wine booths...
Same dole whip...same buses...

Blah blah blah...on and on and on.

Yea there is a cost some are less comfortable with, and a gamble on resale prices.

But today for under $10K (far less than most cars) you can get a week at OKW every year for no extra charge, then sell the 150 points when you feel the time is right. Probably get your $10K back, or at least a big chunk of it.

About $18K will get you a week at GFV every year, POLY for even less-maybe $16K.

 

[Josh Hendy]

The same sort of story happened at the Contemporary, Polynesian, and Animal Kingdom Lodge. Deluxe hotel inventory has shrunk and will likely continue to shrink.

This is the credit bubble at work. You can't rent out luxury hotel rooms at a decent price going night-by-night or week-by-week ... but the same people who won't rent the room a week at a time can and will go out and borrow money so that they can "buy" the room for 2 weeks x 50 years (or whatever) at a time?

There's a word for feeling financially pinched, but instead of restructuring and re-prioritizing, you take a big breath and kick the can as far as you possibly can down the road ... it's called "Greece". This year. Next year it'll be called something else.

 

[DDLand]

Yep...and I covered that on another thread.

Disney has no desire to run more hotels beyond the vacation club model.

You heard it here first...

There would have to be a proven over 100% demand for the longterm future at a price point that is minimum what the deluxes are now or even higher to consider the construction, Infrastructure, and longterm staffing costs.

That's as likely as a leprechaun riding a purple unicorn to El Dorado

And deluxes aren't flying off the rack at their current rate - even in "good times". If you want a hard example - I got a couple of spare nights at beach club for the last week of June - basically when every American child is out of school - for 52% off at wholesale rate. And on short notice.

Not an impressive reflection of how well they've priced the market. That room should have been sold 6 months out at basically retail or the package equivalent to it.

They know that...which is why the agressive expansion...hoping to build to drive the market is over. Eisner would not continue to build now the way he did 20 years ago...that's what lead to his downfall - the desire to build more that forced budget decisions that lowered the bar on what could be built. It ends up looking cheap.

Why no need for expansion? Because ma and pa don't have the week off and the vacation fund like they did in the late 20th century.

Disney parks are still at their backbone a middle
Class enterprise. There move to position it as an "upper class" one is a gamble. We'll see if they have hedged their bets the right way. Time will tell.

Pop century, port Orleans...we're built for a market that is shrinking...it isn't gonna comeback. Nothing has ever trickled down. Except Ponzi schemes.

Unless you want to pay $415+ in your Trinidad south (it's called TOBAGO) room at Caribbean to make the prospect of building more look good...

In which case - more power to you...

I see now, you posted that after I sent that one. Well I hope you had a good time with your family! How were crowds?

You and I have been at this before, and I whole heartedly agree that deluxe rooms appear to be lower occupancy than they should be. That doesn't mean that they're not quickly hitting higher occupancy then they have in years. That management is showing amazing confidence in this property. That times seem to be changing.

Disney isn't really pushing Flamingo Crossings. Universal Studios is rapidly expanding their inventory. Disney just spent 1 billion in large part to defend their hotel inventory.

Occupancy numbers don't lie. Jay Rasulo could've said nothing of substance about the hotels. Instead he highlighted them.

I'll leave it here, the WDW is growing. WDW will continue to grow. I think they should invest in that growth.