I'll comment for the benefit of anyone who didn't read the entire thread and might otherwise think you're making points which haven't already been discussed.
It's called the UNOFFICIAL GUIDE. Disney doesn't even release official theme park attendance statistics. They certainly don't release proprietary and confidential information regarding number of ADRs made, number no-shows etc. Sorry but those numbers don't even support your points.
High no-shows, and high variances, in the month of January makes a lot of sense to many of us. Winter storms results in guests having to delay their vacations by hours, sometimes even a day or two. Winter storms result in some guests cancelling their trip altogether. Guests observing empty tables in January may be less likely to cancel an ADR then a guest during a peak travel time when a guest may see the need to free an ADR for another guest. I've never cancelled a January trip due to weather. Do the CMs who process your resort cancellation ask if you have ADRs that need to be cancelled? Do you think some guests might think Disney automatically takes care of it? I call and tell the CM I'm weathered in and need to change my trip. Not a reach to think Disney should assume I won't be dining.
10%. That sounds about right for guests on a vacation. Shouldn't be an issue handling it by either overbooking or accommodating walk ups.
The figures are made up. OK they're probably based on anecdotal conversations some of Unofficial Guide people had with some CMs in restaurants. The point is they're not based on official statistics. Without knowing day to day variances as well as circumstances which might lead to those variances they tell us nothing.
Huge backups and lines could be a result of guests spending more time dining then expected. How many people try stretch out an early ADR at the CG so they can stay for fireworks? Some of think one of the reasons Disney dropped the appetizer from the DDP was to increase restaurant turnover. Disney could have offered guests the option of an appetizer or dessert. Good chance people at the table would split appetizers and desserts. The appetizer could have been dropped to choice of soup or salad. Price fixed dinners are normally 3 courses but don't include a wide range of appetizers. Choice of soup or salad is common. Logical to think the issue was turnover as much as food cost savings.
We know Disney instituted peak surcharges as a way to make more $$$. I'll speculate the "bean counters" look at the no-shows as a new revenue source.
I'm curious, but I understand I'll never know, what causes variances.
I don't think "guest rudeness" as a reason would have large variances.
The numbers have been posted in this thread, coming courtesy of Touring Plans. The no-show rates average between 10%-33%, depending on the month (10% is in July and 33% in January). Some have questioned those figures. But I have a hard time thinking that they would publish those figures in their book (The Unoffical Guide) and on their website unless they knew they were accurate. 10% is a very high rate, 33% is absurdly high. Then there is the question of variance. All we can do is speculate, but if the avergage for the month of January is 33%, then that must mean there are many days where the number is actually higher (possibly much higher). I think that constitues a HUGE problem for Disney - and would for any business.
It's called the UNOFFICIAL GUIDE. Disney doesn't even release official theme park attendance statistics. They certainly don't release proprietary and confidential information regarding number of ADRs made, number no-shows etc. Sorry but those numbers don't even support your points.
High no-shows, and high variances, in the month of January makes a lot of sense to many of us. Winter storms results in guests having to delay their vacations by hours, sometimes even a day or two. Winter storms result in some guests cancelling their trip altogether. Guests observing empty tables in January may be less likely to cancel an ADR then a guest during a peak travel time when a guest may see the need to free an ADR for another guest. I've never cancelled a January trip due to weather. Do the CMs who process your resort cancellation ask if you have ADRs that need to be cancelled? Do you think some guests might think Disney automatically takes care of it? I call and tell the CM I'm weathered in and need to change my trip. Not a reach to think Disney should assume I won't be dining.
10%. That sounds about right for guests on a vacation. Shouldn't be an issue handling it by either overbooking or accommodating walk ups.
People can choose to believe those numbers aren't accurate (most likely because they just don't want to). That's fine with me. And even if you cut those numbers in half, those would still be high.
And as for the actual numbers versus what they overbooked...you asked what "if they overbook 25% and only 10% no-show"? Well then they have another huge problem in that scenario - huge backups and long waits to be seated. Then everyone will be complaining about that. They can't win no matter what. That's why it's my opinion that thier ultimate goal is to reduce the no-show rates and the variance within it to better predict on a daily basis how many no-shows they will have. This will allow them to run a far more efficient operation (including but not limited to better staffing/supply ordering/more accurate [over]booking) - which should all result in a better guest experience.
The figures are made up. OK they're probably based on anecdotal conversations some of Unofficial Guide people had with some CMs in restaurants. The point is they're not based on official statistics. Without knowing day to day variances as well as circumstances which might lead to those variances they tell us nothing.
Huge backups and lines could be a result of guests spending more time dining then expected. How many people try stretch out an early ADR at the CG so they can stay for fireworks? Some of think one of the reasons Disney dropped the appetizer from the DDP was to increase restaurant turnover. Disney could have offered guests the option of an appetizer or dessert. Good chance people at the table would split appetizers and desserts. The appetizer could have been dropped to choice of soup or salad. Price fixed dinners are normally 3 courses but don't include a wide range of appetizers. Choice of soup or salad is common. Logical to think the issue was turnover as much as food cost savings.
We know Disney instituted peak surcharges as a way to make more $$$. I'll speculate the "bean counters" look at the no-shows as a new revenue source.
I'm curious, but I understand I'll never know, what causes variances.
- Weather related?
- Related to seasonal sickness?
- Transportation related? Buses run slow due to WDW events (marathon).
- Empty restaurants? Does that mean guests don't see the need to cancel? Does that mean guests are able to score a walk up at an alternate restaurant and don't see the need to cancel the unused ADR?
- Crowd related? Long lines means guests spend time on line for an attraction rather then dining. If you believe the statistics then this isn't the case. No-shows are lower during peak months.
I don't think "guest rudeness" as a reason would have large variances.