New Al Lutz Update: Fantasmic Dragon and Captain Eo's Return?

[HydroGuy]

Al Lutz has a very informative update today here: http://miceage.micechat.com/allutz/al072809a.htm

o Fantasmic dragon update - return in late August?
o Fantasmic Flotsam and Jetsam jet ski issues and minor accident
o Fantasmic to close for two months after Labor Day to resolve recent issues
o Fantasmic to close Jan-April 2010 for River of America drainage
o Looks like the RDCT fireworks show will not return
o Captain Eo may come back to DL
o AP program getting out of control? Now there are over 800,000 AP holders
o AP program likely to change - higher prices?
o Updates on the D23 Expo

 

[blackjackdelta]

Thanks Trey.

Jack

 

[prettyprincessbelle]

Thank you, HG!

 

[Kayla's Mom]

Oh man... I am really bummed about the Remember fireworks not coming back.... And also that Fantasmic will be down after Labor Day....

 

[Sherry E]

Interesting stuff about the AP holders. Even before this article, it was really starting to seem like the AP holders were seriously affecting crowds and attendance this year, assuming that most of the newer AP holders do not have Premium APs and instead have lower-level APs with blockout days. I am one of those PAP holders who does NOT go to DLR all the time, but rather, would like to go a couple or few times per year during Halloweentime or the cooler holiday months and then use the AP for discounts on food, hotels, etc. Many people are getting APs these days just for the discounts, I think (as recommended on this board). So I wonder if imposing a price hike on the APs will prevent people from buying them for discounts, even if they don't flock into the parks routinely. Actually, I anticipated some sort of a price hike, as we all did, but I wonder if they will make the price increase for all the AP levels SO substantial that it will scare off the bulk of folks who have them!

Well, I had planned on trying to renew my AP in December - if I renewed at all this year - but now I am thinking maybe I should try to renew in Fall, before the price goes way up. What is the current PAP price? Is it $389?? Hmmm....I wonder how much they would raise it. I was initially thinking they would hike it up by $15 or $20, but now I am wondering how high they will go in order to discourage people from buying it! An extra $15 or $20 doesn't seem like it would be enough of an increase to turn away the folks who really want a PAP - or any level of AP, for that matter.

 

[TheZue]

Interesting stuff about the AP holders. Even before this article, it was really starting to seem like the AP holders were seriously affecting crowds and attendance this year, assuming that most of the newer AP holders do not have Premium APs and instead have lower-level APs with blockout days. I am one of those PAP holders who does NOT go to DLR all the time, but rather, would like to go a couple or few times per year during Halloweentime or the cooler holiday months and then use the AP for discounts on food, hotels, etc. Many people are getting APs these days just for the discounts, I think (as recommended on this board). So I wonder if imposing a price hike on the APs will prevent people from buying them for discounts, even if they don't flock into the parks routinely. Actually, I anticipated some sort of a price hike, as we all did, but I wonder if they will make the price increase for all the AP levels SO substantial that it will scare off the bulk of folks who have them!

Well, I had planned on trying to renew my AP in December - if I renewed at all this year - but now I am thinking maybe I should try to renew in Fall, before the price goes way up. What is the current PAP price? Is it $389?? Hmmm....I wonder how much they would raise it. I was initially thinking they would hike it up by $15 or $20, but now I am wondering how high they will go in order to discourage people from buying it! And extra $15 or $20 doesn't seem like it would be enough of an increase to turn away the folks who really want a PAP - or any level of AP, for that matter.

I actually wonder if they'll up the price of the cheaper passes first. At least those of us who are getting them to get discounts when we go once or twice a year are actually spending in the park. Like I got mine because I easily plan on spending over $600 on food and gifts while we are there in October; I would bet a lot of locals often go in without buying anything or eating much. We also don't cause the massive spikes in attendance since we don't have as many blacked out days or no blacked out days at all. Maybe they'll up all of them, but it seems to me the bigger impact on reducing the problems could be dealt with raising the prices on the SoCal passes which are already less than a five day pass...they really are far too cheap.

 

[Sherry E]

I actually wonder if they'll up the price of the cheaper passes first. At least those of us who are getting them to get discounts when we go once or twice a year are actually spending in the park. Like I got mine because I easily plan on spending over $600 on food and gifts while we are there in October; I would bet a lot of locals often go in without buying anything or eating much. We also don't cause the massive spikes in attendance since we don't have as many blacked out days or no blacked out days at all. Maybe they'll up all of them, but it seems to me the bigger impact on reducing the problems could be dealt with raising the prices on the SoCal passes which are already less than a five day pass...they really are far too cheap.

I think you're right. I was kind of thinking along the lines of what you were saying as I typed my first post - that it would logically make much more sense for DLR to just hike up the prices of the SoCal passes and even the Deluxe to a degree, as those all have blockout days and the AP holders surge into the parks before the blockout days set in. The PAP holders can go any day of the year and don't necessarily pack into the parks at a specific time because they are not blocked. I am probably one of the few PAP holders who lives within an hour from DLR who does not go there terribly often, but when I do go, I certainly spend $$ because I am there for a full weekend or 4 days/3 nights. However, the people who can go once a week for a few hours at a time most likely do not spend much money at DLR. I have friends who have APs and they used to go for a couple of hours every couple of weeks just to ride TSMM or Indy or Soarin' or whatever, and then leave - no souvenirs, no lunch or dinner, nothing. Just a way to kill a few hours here and there.

One thing I think DLR will likely do is cut the installment payment program for APs for SoCal residents. Even though I think that was a great option for the guests to have in this terrible economy, for DLR, they basically invited thousands and thousands of people to get APs by doing that, and they weren't prepared for how many people actually got them. So I could picture that after this year they would most likely want to stop the monthly payment option for APs just to make it a little harder to get one, along with raising the prices, but who knows....

 

[LuLusApple]

it really appears that the socal passes and the payment plan
with all the perks socals get may be the main crowd problem. I wonder what the actual breakdown is? How many are deluxe and premium out of that 800,000?? I am guessing the socals must outnumber ?
I bet they are going to eliminate the payment plan or only keep it if they raise the socal $$ dramatically. Along with raising all other APs.
Bummer regarding the dragon... They estimate 8/16 we have PSs for 8/13 just crossing my fingers they are early

 

[TheZue]

I think you're right. I was kind of thinking along the lines of what you were saying as I typed my first post - that it would logically make much more sense for DLR to just hike up the prices of the SoCal passes and even the Deluxe to a degree, as those all have blockout days and the AP holders surge into the parks before the blockout days set in. The PAP holders can go any day of the year and don't necessarily pack into the parks at a specific time because they are not blocked. I am probably one of the few PAP holders who lives within an hour from DLR who does not go there terribly often, but when I do go, I certainly spend $$ because I am there for a full weekend or 4 days/3 nights. However, the people who can go once a week for a few hours at a time most likely do not spend much money at DLR. I have friends who have APs and they used to go for a couple of hours every couple of weeks just to ride TSMM or Indy or Soarin' or whatever, and then leave - no souvenirs, no lunch or dinner, nothing. Just a way to kill a few hours here and there.

One thing I think DLR will likely do is cut the installment payment program for APs for SoCal residents. Even though I think that was a great option for the guests to have in this terrible economy, for DLR, they basically invited thousands and thousands of people to get APs by doing that, and they weren't prepared for how many people actually got them. So I could picture that after this year they would most likely want to stop the monthly payment option for APs just to make it a little harder to get one, along with raising the prices, but who knows....

Exactly, and if they can't afford to pay for a season pass that's under $200 without installments they aren't going to be spending much in the park anyways. It was just a poor business decision to fill the park.

 

[94bruin]

Oh man... I am really bummed about the Remember fireworks not coming back.... And also that Fantasmic will be down after Labor Day....

Same here. I wouldn't mind missing it, but my parents haven't been in ages, so I think they would've enjoyed it.

Well, I guess that's one less thing to worry for our September trip.

 

[3Minnies1Mickey]

Wow! I'm bummed about just about everything in that article. We will be in DLR the weekend after Labor Day....if there is no Fantasmic along with the no SM, I will not be a happy camper! Fantasmic is the ultimate in Disney Magic, with or without the dragon. The music just puts me in the Disney spirit. Capt. Eo for Halloween would be fun, haven't seen that since I was 10!

 

[blackjackdelta]

Exactly, and if they can't afford to pay for a season pass that's under $200 without installments they aren't going to be spending much in the park anyways. It was just a poor business decision to fill the park.

There was alot of doom and gloom with the economy, has it affected the volumes of people coming to the parks? Doesn't sound like it has. Up the price, folks are still going to buy. Even if people spend just a few $$ on drinks, cotton candy, whatever, the shear volume makes money. It will be interesting to see what Disney's quarterly report looks like.

Jack

 

[MAH4546]

Remember is currently set to return for President's Day Weekend and then it will run on weekends, and daily during spring break peak. It will be the spring fireworks show. However, since Fantasmic! will be down for most of spring 2010, I suspect it might run daily.

I do not know the breakdown for APs except that, traditionally, PAP was 30% of AP sales. However, I suspect that in 2009 the breakdown has shifted significantly.

Next summer Disneyland will be loaded with entertainment at night: Fantasmic! (will the dragon be fixed by then?), the fireworks (I'm curious if Magical will return; it has seen very poor guest reaction), and the return of MSEP.

 

[Albort]

There was alot of doom and gloom with the economy, has it affected the volumes of people coming to the parks? Doesn't sound like it has. Up the price, folks are still going to buy. Even if people spend just a few $$ on drinks, cotton candy, whatever, the shear volume makes money. It will be interesting to see what Disney's quarterly report looks like.

Jack

yeah, all the profit margins are going into the weirdest place. Store Ops are suffering... but ODV is actually breaking their profit margins. :\ Hence, why TDA decided to give QSR ODV carts to help their sales...

 

[Eeee-va]

It sounded from the article that DLR might be considering trying to cater to tourists, who are on average a more lucrative target than locals. As a non-local, I'm personally all for that.

But now that I finally have an AP myself, I don't want them to give any special perks (besides Magic Morning) to people who buy non-annual-passes. Maybe perks for people who have to drive at least 4 hours to get to the park?

Historically they haven't raised the prices of APs astronomically (though Al's been calling out the need to do so for probably at least 5 years). I agree the price of the Southern California APs and the $99/3 day pass for locals are probably what's bringing in the biggest group of locals. But the Deluxe APs get you a lot of visits for your money too. I've got to selfishly hope they don't raise the Deluxe rate too much, though, in case I want to renew!

I think it would be really interesting if they brought Captain EO back for Halloweentime. I'm afraid that would probably be the tipping point to make me have to go, even if it may be difficult financially and with my work schedule. It would be really interesting to see it again and I doubt they'd consider bringing it back in 2010 (which would be a much more reasonable time for me to go). That coupled with a new Space Mountain, new fireworks, and with luck, the party in DCA, would make it really way too tempting to pass up. (Even though I saw the Captain EO video on YouTube and I don't know that it's actually a particularly compelling movie. )

I'm not sure it's really a smart idea for Disney to try, though. October was swamped last year, right? This year it's been made abundantly clear that any new entertainment offering will fill the park up for at least a few days, and days that are not blocked out for APs are often busier than traditionally busy days that ARE blocked out. October doesn't have all that many blockout dates. Space Mountain already has one of the longest lines in the park throughout the whole day, and putting in new effects will probably attract even more guests. So will the new fireworks. It's scary to imagine how crowded things will be, so I'm not sure that giving people one more reason to go is a good idea.

On the other hand, the show would be a nice holding pen for a lot of people who have no interest in HISTA, and would keep them off the walkways, so maybe it's not an awful idea.

But anyway, if Captain EO is played too, expect me to be one of those annoying APers who comes to the park just to camp out to see a few new (or old) attractions.

 

[PinkBudgie]

I have been wondering about the whole AP thing too. I was always surprised at how many discounts Socal got when they just pack the park for every new thing without spending much money.

Here is my idea: Give the discount APs to those who live outside of Socal. We have APs but when we visit we are tourists and spend like tourists. We don't need more blockout dates because it is hard for us to visit often anyway. Our APs should be cheaper. I also believe more deals like the 5 for 3tickets should continue if they want the tourists to come.

The Socal APs could stagger the blockout dates. For example, for the same price you choose blockout plan A or plan B. The cost is the same, the number of blockout days is the same, but the blockout dates are different. People could choose which they like better and it would keep them from all storming the park at once just to see a new show.

Or, have Socal APs that are blocked out of certain attractions in the park on certain days. They could set up some type of FP type machine to issue tickets for WOC, for example. You put in your ticket to get your WOC ticket. On certain days Socal APs could be blocked out from getting tickets like maybe the first week it opens. Also, you would want to go get your tickets in the morning to be sure they don't run out. That would bring Socal APs in to the park in the morning to get tickets for the evening. They would stay and spend money all day. If they chose to pop over at 5pm, they may not get tickets.

Ok, I'm sure my ideas don't really work for a number of reasons but I'm just thinking out loud.

 

[Sherry E]

I have been wondering about the whole AP thing too. I was always surprised at how many discounts Socal got when they just pack the park for every new thing without spending much money.

Here is my idea: Give the discount APs to those who live outside of Socal. We have APs but when we visit we are tourists and spend like tourists. We don't need more blockout dates because it is hard for us to visit often anyway. Our APs should be cheaper. I also believe more deals like the 5 for 3tickets should continue if they want the tourists to come.

The Socal APs could stagger the blockout dates. For example, for the same price you choose blockout plan A or plan B. The cost is the same, the number of blockout days is the same, but the blockout dates are different. People could choose which they like better and it would keep them from all storming the park at once just to see a new show.

Or, have Socal APs that are blocked out of certain attractions in the park on certain days. They could set up some type of FP type machine to issue tickets for WOC, for example. You put in your ticket to get your WOC ticket. On certain days Socal APs could be blocked out from getting tickets like maybe the first week it opens. Also, you would want to go get your tickets in the morning to be sure they don't run out. That would bring Socal APs in to the park in the morning to get tickets for the evening. They would stay and spend money all day. If they chose to pop over at 5pm, they may not get tickets.

Ok, I'm sure my ideas don't really work for a number of reasons but I'm just thinking out loud.

I really like the idea of making the blockout days for each AP different, so that the AP holders don't all storm the parks at the same time. I don't know if they will do that, though. I almost get the feeling that DLR feels it bit off more than it could chew by offering the payment plans and making it so easy for folks to get APs that now they almost want to discourage people (locals) from buying APs. I kind of think that somewhere in a conference room, some DLR VIPs are having meetings where someone says, "Okay, we created a monster by making these APs so easy to get. Now we still want people to buy the APs and spend lots of money, obviously, but we don't want 800,000 people to buy them - so how do we stop the beast?!!" I tend to think they will cut the payment plan and just raise all the APs to stratospheric prices!

Actually, and this may sound counter-intuitive, if they made the Premium APs more affordable and dropped the price a bit (but still more expensive than the other APs), they could still make lots of money by attracting more folks to buy the PAP rather than the lower level APs, but they would be making strides towards minimizing masses of people descending on DLR because the PAP holders would spread out throughout the whole year and not all crowd into the parks on the same days. But the Disney way of controlling the masses would be to make everything so expensive that no one wants to buy it at all. Look how many folks are staying off-site now, because the DLR hotels are so expensive that they are scaring a lot of people away!!

 

[mybestieismickey]

I think the economy is why there are so many AP holders, period. The payment plan just made it easier. If you think about it, to the average local AP holder, Disneyland is cheap thrills. The more times you go, the less expensive it is.

I grew up about an hour away from Disneyland and one year my dad got a fantastic deal on APs and bought them for our whole family. It was mom's ultimate bribe. If our rooms were clean by the time we got home from school on Friday she would take us to Disneyland. Our rooms were never so clean as they were that year. Our entire cash expediture on each trip was a churro or a frozen banana or something like that. Sometimes, we got to actually have a CS meal for dinner, but we didn't always stay that late. Usually we got dinner on the way home. On the very rare occasion, we would eat at the Plaza. Spending money came from our own pockets. Yeah, we probably wanted to buy everything in sight, but we knew that complaining meant you got nothing and you stayed home next time. Who wouldn't rather be at Disneyland without treats than home with a sitter?

If I lived close enough and I had kids, I would totally do this now. It would sure break up the monotony and create the feeling of going somewhere without spending much if anything.

 

[Sherry E]

I think the economy is why there are so many AP holders, period. The payment plan just made it easier. If you think about it, to the average local AP holder, Disneyland is cheap thrills. The more times you go, the less expensive it is.

I grew up about an hour away from Disneyland and one year my dad got a fantastic deal on APs and bought them for our whole family. It was mom's ultimate bribe. If our rooms were clean by the time we got home from school on Friday she would take us to Disneyland. Our rooms were never so clean as they were that year. Our entire cash expediture on each trip was a churro or a frozen banana or something like that. Sometimes, we got to actually have a CS meal for dinner, but we didn't always stay that late. Usually we got dinner on the way home. On the very rare occasion, we would eat at the Plaza. Spending money came from our own pockets. Yeah, we probably wanted to buy everything in sight, but we knew that complaining meant you got nothing and you stayed home next time. Who wouldn't rather be at Disneyland without treats than home with a sitter?

If I lived close enough and I had kids, I would totally do this now. It would sure break up the monotony and create the feeling of going somewhere without spending much if anything.

I also grew up going to DL (hence, the title of my Trip Report in my signature below) and have only developed more of an appreciation and affection for DL & DLR over the years rather than less of one like a few other people I know, but until just last year I thought that having an Annual Pass would kill the magic for me. For some reason I had this vision of getting the AP and going so often to DLR that I would get sick of it, or never being able to get to DLR at all and wasting the money. Well, getting my Premium AP for $191 was too good of a deal to pass up, so I took it, and it started paying for itself right away in the discounts I got on food and merchandise, not to mention the GREAT AP rate I got at the PPH last December, in the peak of the holiday season. But I have not actually made a lot of trips to DLR since I got the AP because it is just not possible for me to get there very often at this point in time. Now I can see where my AP comes in very handy, however, and it expires at the beginning of October. So I am at a crossroads as to whether or not to renew it, and if so, exactly when to renew it, even though I know I will not be making lots and lots of DLR trips during the year. I considered possibly going the route of the monthly payment plan, but now I suspect that DLR may put a stop to that so that may not be an option. Having the AP is a good value, though, whether you can get to DLR often, or whether you go a couple of times a year and stay onsite for a few days and eat character meals, etc. Either way it is worthwhile at the current price. Now if they suddenly hike up the AP prices so that they are way more expensive than they currently are, then the value might decrease.

The funny thing is, one of my friends who is always with me on DLR trips happens to live in Anaheim, 5 minutes up the street from DLR, close enough to be annoyed by the fireworks every night when she is trying to sleep or watch TV or talk on the phone. And she does NOT have an AP!! If I lived where she lived and had an AP, I would probably go to DLR - I would walk there - at least once or twice a month, by myself, if not more. I would go 20 times during the holiday season, just because that is my favorite time of year to go. But my friend is not interested in getting an AP, nor is she interested in going to DLR for just a few hours at a time by herself. So technically I should live where she lives since I am the one with the AP!!

 

[tripletlyblessed]

I think if they dropped the payment plan it would drop a few people. I know that our passes (a premium and 4 deluxes) would break the bank if paid all at once ($1465!). Instead I got my pass as a SoCal and then upgraded later. Then I bought the Costco ones one-at-a-time as we neared dds birthdays. Still a lot of money, but broken up. Next April will kill me when the 4 deluxes are all expired at the same time, though.

I've always thought they should do some sort of promo for getting more premiums. Like better parking or a (limited) number of discounted tickets you can buy for friends/family.