New Al Lutz: AP Holders Nearing 1 Million, Captain EO to Return in Feb

[HydroGuy]

There was another informative update by Al Lutz posted this morning on MiceAge here: http://miceage.micechat.com/allutz/al120109a.htm

Here are some highlights:

o AP holders now at 925,000, should reach 1 million by year end
o AP holders crowd parks before Thanksgiving, with crowds dropping after Thanksgiving - not the usual pattern
o Parking woes grow because of AP holders who have less people per car and stay less hours, as well as removal of Timon lot and delayed construction of new parking
o DLR attendance is up (driven by AP holders) and Orlando attendance is down
o Captain EO will open in February
o Captain EO coming to Epcot and Tokyo DL too
o Changes to DCA entrance and new theming inside DCA delayed to 2011/2012
o Princess and the Frog movie shows Lasseter "gets it" by making contributors come to DL

 

[prettyprincessbelle]

Thanks again, HG!

 

[goofycathy]

Thank you so much for the info, very interesting!

 

[Eeee-va]

As an AP-holder living 5 or 6 hours from Disneyland, I'm displeased to read that "Of that huge number, nearly 40,000 were Annual Passholders, all arriving in their own personal cars and stretching the Resort infrastructure to the breaking point."

I reckon it's true that most AP-holders are within day-tripping distance, but certainly not all of them. Heck, the only people I met in DL back in June who said they were AP-holders were from Northern California, I believe (not local enough to use a payment plan, except they used a friend's address...).

Anyway, that makes me rather less likely to believe anything else he says, such as tempers flaring at the slightest provocation, etc. My grain of salt for his articles has been growing bigger and bigger.

(Though in fairness I am just HOPING that he's wrong about the Friday and Sunday during my trip being awful. Sunday's the day we're going home so I guess that's fine, but as far as Friday afternoon and evening...come on, rain! )

 

[spacemermaid]

Thanks for posting this! *goes off to inform BFF of Capatin EO's return, and on an online seach for a hotel in February*...

 

[HydroGuy]

As an AP-holder living 5 or 6 hours from Disneyland, I'm displeased to read that "Of that huge number, nearly 40,000 were Annual Passholders, all arriving in their own personal cars and stretching the Resort infrastructure to the breaking point."

I reckon it's true that most AP-holders are within day-tripping distance, but certainly not all of them. Heck, the only people I met in DL back in June who said they were AP-holders were from Northern California, I believe (not local enough to use a payment plan, except they used a friend's address...).

Anyway, that makes me rather less likely to believe anything else he says, such as tempers flaring at the slightest provocation, etc. My grain of salt for his articles has been growing bigger and bigger.

(Though in fairness I am just HOPING that he's wrong about the Friday and Sunday during my trip being awful. Sunday's the day we're going home so I guess that's fine, but as far as Friday afternoon and evening...come on, rain! )

The funny thing is I think Al Lutz is one of those 925,000 AP holders. I for one do not take that as hypocritical. I mean, should he not get an AP because so many others do?

On the other hand, it is my understanding that Al has contacts inside Disney at multiple levels that were developed during the DCA fiasco - executives who think they are smarter than everyone else designing theme parks instead of theme park designers. The result? DCA. And even worse, believe me - I have been there - Walt Disney Studios at DLR Paris - designed near the same time as DCA.

In any case Al gives us a glimpse of what is going on inside, and reports of trouble with CMs, etc., that are known inside Disney. Does Al embellish to make his points? Does he use selective information? In some cases I think he does both. But overall I have found his information over the last five years to be, by far, the most reliable of what is happening at Disney.

 

[K&A mom]

Out of the million APs, any idea how many are the SoCal & SoCal Select? Would sure help with planning!!!

 

[Eeee-va]

I've never considered Al to really be hypocritical, but we agree that he embellishes, HydroGuy.

Honestly, before his faulty info on Captain EO (that it would be back for Halloweentime for sure, etc.) and Starbucks coming to the parks (which turned out to be a different coffee company), I had a lot more trust for what he had to say. I know anything he says is subject to change but he's had so much false info in the last couple updates (particularly Starbucks, which really wouldn't be a last-second change), I'm starting to wonder if any of his "sources" are sending him red herrings.

Doesn't stop me from reading, though. Lately I'm pleasantly surprised to find that the info on the DISboards is about as good as the info on the local-dominated (and generally meaner) MiceChat boards.

 

[Albort]

micechat is Disneyland Heavy as well...

Most users here are WDW heavy...

Makes me wonder if Disney will actually read that...

 

[PinkBudgie]

I take his criticism to be aimed at the DLR executives for not adapting quickly enough to all the APs in the park they have been encouarging. We live 8 hours away and had an AP last year and plan to get one again this summer. I just didn't get the feeling that he was blaming AP holders. He simply stated what a large number of AP holders do. To me, parking is the biggest issue that they should be dealing with. Probably because we always drive.

As for his "predictions", I never took his word to be absolute, but only rumors of what might happen. Either he was told wrong things, or plans fall through. I find what he says interesting and sometimes hopeful, but I don't believe it until I see it.

 

[HydroGuy]

Out of the million APs, any idea how many are the SoCal & SoCal Select? Would sure help with planning!!!

My understanding is the 90+% of all AP holders are one of the two SoCal categories.

 

[HydroGuy]

I've never considered Al to really be hypocritical, but we agree that he embellishes, HydroGuy.

Honestly, before his faulty info on Captain EO (that it would be back for Halloweentime for sure, etc.) and Starbucks coming to the parks (which turned out to be a different coffee company), I had a lot more trust for what he had to say. I know anything he says is subject to change but he's had so much false info in the last couple updates (particularly Starbucks, which really wouldn't be a last-second change), I'm starting to wonder if any of his "sources" are sending him red herrings.

Doesn't stop me from reading, though. Lately I'm pleasantly surprised to find that the info on the DISboards is about as good as the info on the local-dominated (and generally meaner) MiceChat boards.

I think we both agree here. To amplify, I never take Al as saying "this is what is going to happen". Rather, he says about himself and I understand him to be saying "this is what Disney is currently thinking of doing".

EO is good example. If you follow his posts for the last four months it appears there was enthusiasm to bring EO back, then there were advisors who thought up all the drawbacks (that is what they are paid to do), then right before the D23 Expo the execs saw a performance of EO and got cold feet about the changeover. With the latest update it appears that the execs worked through their concerns and decided to move forward with EO in February.

All of this appears to me to be the normal way businesses work. Someone has an idea. Initially it sounds good. People consider all the upsides and downsides, lawyers come in and warn of legal pitfalls, the idea is modified if still viable, then the idea is implemented.

All Al did in this case was give a running commentary of the process. If Al says Disney is planning to do something, and then they change their mind, that does not make Al wrong.

Al is almost always the first one to report what Disney is thinking - from the POTC makeover, Nemo subs, DCA makeover, etc. I think he has many sources and his sources are solid.