MyMagic+ Delay - Article

[KatieCharlotte]

I don't know about the first-time/casual visitor. But I was for the concept of FP+ because I detest rope drop. But the tiering will be the thing that drives me away from WDW, or at least makes me shorten my trips and perhaps split them with another destination

It's a math problem with no solution that will make everyone happy, except increasing headliner capacity. Pretend that Disney gave out 100 TSMM fastpasses for each hour x 10 hours. [Clearly the number is much higher, but I'm trying to simplify the math.] Those 1,000 fastpasses were taken by early-arriving guests in the first two hours. The 2,000 people who would have gotten FP but arrived too late are out of luck. They might get in standby or might grumble and move on to Star Tours. They cheer when FP+ is implemented.

So, there are 3,000 people who wanted TSMM fastpasses. Disney promises they can book their favorite ride. They have two months to book TSMM from the comfort of their homes or mobile devices. So now what does Disney do? Triple the number of fastpasses they are giving out per hour, thus greatly increasing the FP line? Or discourage some people from booking TSMM if it's not truly their favorite attraction...maybe they have teens and would really prefer RnR or maybe they've been dreaming of seeing Fantasmic. Tiers are born.

Epcot is even worse because you have 3,000 people who want fastpasses for BOTH Soarin and Test Track. So, make them choose and hope you can push a few more off onto Maelstrom or Illuminations.

Clearly, this analysis is too simplistic because it is unknown whether more or less people will use FP+ than tried to use FP, but you get the general idea.

 

[clsteve]

I do have DD, or Dueling Dragons. I wasn't counting shows. But, I do think a few other Uni rides are borderline for inclusion, like Dr. Doom.

Point is, if you take the out the fluff that is meet and greets, and very low tech dark rides (which I LOVE, but are losing their luster in general), and you can plainly see the massive attraction glut Disney has created for itself.

I mean, who on this board, 3 years ago, would have said: "You know what, I sure wish Disney would limit my FPs to 3 a day, that way I wouldn't have to get up early!"

Yet there are plenty on here now acting like it's a great idea.

Jason

Sorry- thought you meant DD as Dr. Doom

and I'm guessing you don't have a lot of pictures of you with Mickey and Ariel in your scrapbook.......

 

[ArwenMarie]

It's a math problem with no solution that will make everyone happy, except increasing headliner capacity. Pretend that Disney gave out 100 TSMM fastpasses for each hour x 10 hours. [Clearly the number is much higher, but I'm trying to simplify the math.] Those 1,000 fastpasses were taken by early-arriving guests in the first two hours. The 2,000 people who would have gotten FP but arrived too late are out of luck. They might get in standby or might grumble and move on to Star Tours. They cheer when FP+ is implemented.

So, there are 3,000 people who wanted TSMM fastpasses. Disney promises they can book their favorite ride. They have two months to book TSMM from the comfort of their homes or mobile devices. So now what does Disney do? Triple the number of fastpasses they are giving out per hour, thus greatly increasing the FP line? Or discourage some people from booking TSMM if it's not truly their favorite attraction...maybe they have teens and would really prefer RnR or maybe they've been dreaming of seeing Fantasmic. Tiers are born.

Epcot is even worse because you have 3,000 people who want fastpasses for BOTH Soarin and Test Track. So, make them choose and hope you can push a few more off onto Maelstrom or Illuminations.

Clearly, this analysis is too simplistic because it is unknown whether more or less people will use FP+ than tried to use FP, but you get the general idea.

Oh I totally agree, and I know that the numbers are the numbers, unfortunately, and nothing will change that except adding more headliners.

What I think they are thinking (at least for onsite guests) is..."Come for a week! Stay with us! Sleep in, relax, you're on vacation! Get to ride all of our headliners (once)!" Of course, this means the standard 2 days to Epcot, 1 day to DHS, 1 day to AK and 3 to MK. Which is what it is.

From my perspective as someone who stays onsite the entire time...It's not appealing to pay for a whole day extra (ticket, lodging and food) to go back to Epcot for a second day to ride the other headliner. I don't need two days at Epcot. And as far as DHS, not sure I'll be trekking over there for one headliner either. Etc. This is all assuming I don't want to have to run to rope drop. I could run to rope drop prior to this and use the paper FPs.

Anyway, just my perspective as someone who stays onsite, like Disney wants, and was actually for the concept of FP+. I know the numbers are the numbers and that's their problem. But they lost me on the tiers.

 

[rastuso]

Sorry- thought you meant DD as Dr. Doom

and I'm guessing you don't have a lot of pictures of you with Mickey and Ariel in your scrapbook.......

I have some with Mickey. The ones with Ariel are private!

Buuuut, anyway... I have an awesome one with Megatron, and he even verbally abused me and my son while we got it taken!

Waiting an hour to get a picture with what might as well be a static Mickey figure isn't high on my list. Now, if they'd roll out the animatronic Mickey heads, I'l be in line.

Jason

 

[sonofanarchy]

From my perspective as someone who stays onsite the entire time...It's not appealing to pay for a whole day extra (ticket, lodging and food) to go back to Epcot for a second day to ride the other headliner. I don't need two days at Epcot. And as far as DHS, not sure I'll be trekking over there for one headliner either. Etc. This is all assuming I don't want to have to run to rope drop. I could run to rope drop prior to this and use the paper FPs.

Anyway, just my perspective as someone who stays onsite, like Disney wants, and was actually for the concept of FP+. I know the numbers are the numbers and that's their problem. But they lost me on the tiers.

Yup, and this is where I think Disney has made a GIGANTIC error. Some might say "Oh come on, Disney knows what they're doing." If you wanted to use that argument 20 years ago, it would hold some water. But looking at all the poor decisions made by the company in recent years, it's pretty easy to say they really messed things up big time. I got the idea of Magic Bands. Great idea. That was making things easier for guests. No negatives at all. Fastpass Plus was a mistake. If they weren't so stubborn, the best move at this point would be to cut their losses and avoid any further resentment from guests. Not sure if they simply underestimated our intelligence, but nobody is buying into FP+ anymore. The more info that gets leaked, the worse it gets.

 

[Momtomouselover]

Oh I totally agree, and I know that the numbers are the numbers, unfortunately, and nothing will change that except adding more headliners.

What I think they are thinking (at least for onsite guests) is..."Come for a week! Stay with us! Sleep in, relax, you're on vacation! Get to ride all of our headliners (once)!" Of course, this means the standard 2 days to Epcot, 1 day to DHS, 1 day to AK and 3 to MK. Which is what it is.

From my perspective as someone who stays onsite the entire time...It's not appealing to pay for a whole day extra (ticket, lodging and food) to go back to Epcot for a second day to ride the other headliner. I don't need two days at Epcot. And as far as DHS, not sure I'll be trekking over there for one headliner either. Etc. This is all assuming I don't want to have to run to rope drop. I could run to rope drop prior to this and use the paper FPs.

Anyway, just my perspective as someone who stays onsite, like Disney wants, and was actually for the concept of FP+. I know the numbers are the numbers and that's their problem. But they lost me on the tiers.

I agree with your summation above. Plus I'm sure the powers that are in charge are factoring the benefits of resort activities, dinners, Downtown Disney, waterparks and thus have enough for at least a one week on site guest. Unfortunately this scenario doesn't benefit locals, repeat visitors and/or über users. Perhaps those categories don't add up to as much dollar wise or there will be other incentives coming down the line.

I like the idea of rope drop but hardly ever make it. However we always still used more than 3 FP a day. I'm hoping that somehow when all the dust settles that either standby isn't terrible and maybe tiering isn't permanent. In the long run surely they will add more rides or else to Universal we will have to go for at least part of our trip.

 

[sonofanarchy]

In the long run surely they will add more rides or else to Universal we will have to go for at least part of our trip.

As someone who fought off going to Universal for years, let me just say, stay on site for a few days and see how much better of an experience it is. Don't get me wrong - Nothing will ever be WDW to me. There is a special feeling inside the parks, shops and restaurants that no place else can match, but that happy feeling only takes you so far. When you find yourself spending half the day standing in line, that magic feeling begins to fade.

 

[Momtomouselover]

As someone who fought off going to Universal for years, let me just say, stay on site for a few days and see how much better of an experience it is. Don't get me wrong - Nothing will ever be WDW to me. There is a special feeling inside the parks, shops and restaurants that no place else can match, but that happy feeling only takes you so far. When you find yourself spending half the day standing in line, that magic feeling begins to fade.

I'm thinking that as soon as my son is tall enough to ride most of the thrill rides (and he loves them!) we will start to split our resort stays. I will still want to visit Disney but maybe 3-4 days there and 3-4 at Universal. We will see. We went to Seaworld but I didn't find that magical at all. I'm trying to hold on to the idea that we are missing something and it will all shake out in the end, however, our October trip to Disney was anything but magical.

 

[ArwenMarie]

Yup, and this is where I think Disney has made a GIGANTIC error. Some might say "Oh come on, Disney knows what they're doing." If you wanted to use that argument 20 years ago, it would hold some water. But looking at all the poor decisions made by the company in recent years, it's pretty easy to say they really messed things up big time. I got the idea of Magic Bands. Great idea. That was making things easier for guests. No negatives at all. Fastpass Plus was a mistake. If they weren't so stubborn, the best move at this point would be to cut their losses and avoid any further resentment from guests. Not sure if they simply underestimated our intelligence, but nobody is buying into FP+ anymore. The more info that gets leaked, the worse it gets.

I'm starting to think that the main goal here is appealing to first-timers. Period. Getting them to make that jump to come. Both first-timers from the U.S., Canada, UK, and Brazil (and future countries to be targeted with their marketing.) I guess we won't know the answer to that until this is fully rolled out and we see their new marketing strategy.

 

[ArwenMarie]

I agree with your summation above. Plus I'm sure the powers that are in charge are factoring the benefits of resort activities, dinners, Downtown Disney, waterparks and thus have enough for at least a one week on site guest. Unfortunately this scenario doesn't benefit locals, repeat visitors and/or über users. Perhaps those categories don't add up to as much dollar wise or there will be other incentives coming down the line.

I like the idea of rope drop but hardly ever make it. However we always still used more than 3 FP a day. I'm hoping that somehow when all the dust settles that either standby isn't terrible and maybe tiering isn't permanent. In the long run surely they will add more rides or else to Universal we will have to go for at least part of our trip.

They definitely want those first-timers who, like you said, drop a chunk of money on that magical week's vacation. Maybe they can hope they can turn them into repeat customers I guess.

 

[sonofanarchy]

I'm thinking that as soon as my son is tall enough to ride most of the thrill rides (and he loves them!) we will start to split our resort stays. I will still want to visit Disney but maybe 3-4 days there and 3-4 at Universal. We will see. We went to Seaworld but I didn't find that magical at all. I'm trying to hold on to the idea that we are missing something and it will all shake out in the end, however, our October trip to Disney was anything but magical.

Universal is nothing like SeaWorld. SeaWorld is nothing more than a Six Flags like run version of an Aquarium.

 

[OtherScott]

A lot of it seems to be geared towards first time and casual guests:

Make the planning experience less overwhelming by offering FP+ "itineraries" that might keep them in the Park a full day or turn a half-day Park into a full day

"Suggest" quick or table service options in between their FP+ times, as well as other things

Increase Disney's on-site occupancy by having an earlier window for making FP+ reservations or giving a higher number of reservations to them - still speculation, but happening elsewhere (think: Universal)

Offerings to previous guests based on usage patterns based on RFID patterns

Also decrease costs by:

Using FP+ reservations to do better staff planning (they'll know who's going to be in which park, which part of the park, and at what time)

Get rid of infrastructure like FP- machines (widely dispersed, high maintenance and on the grid), and even KTTW cards (hey, they cost something and so do all of the program and acceptance devices)

All of this and much, much more is what they and the analysts are excited about, from a profit perspective.

Sounds vaguely familiar

 

[DRDISNEYMD]

Could make sense: 2 large projects, both delayed. And, it could end up that way. But, I think they're scrambling too much and need good press by at least opening the Train on time.

Just keep in mind the expense involved and how much "face" the exec's are now starting to lose. All joking aside, this article's a big deal for them -Analysts are starting to ask questions, they've missed their September completion date by at least 2 quarters, they're over budget, every follow-on project (like the big marketing release), is also now behind sched, so the cost overrun will continue.

They don't like that it's the first public (besides us) "chink in the armor" and need some positive progress to the analysts whether it's all on-site guests up, or the Train up, or something...

~I made those predictions years ago, just based on how long I estimated Disney to complete installation of all the RFID hardware and software at every POS, replacement of all the turnstiles, all of the resort rooms that required RFID readers, updating all of the ride queues, and the testing, etc.

~The timeline I originally came up with just seemed to match closely with the scheduled date of the Seven Dwarfs Mine Train. I am not surprised it worked out this way. Whether it's intended or not, it just makes sense to wait for the 7DMT to be online. I've also said, several months ago after our experience with Magic Bands and FP+ that Disney should monetize it similar to their competitors.

~For me, the FP+ discussions have become incredibly pedantic and boring, at best. It's akin to discussing how car engine parts are manufactured -- every. single. day. I don't care. When I push the button, I want my car to go. Fast. That's all. Likewise, when I go to Disney World, I want to have fun. Lots. That's all. I would rather watch water come to a full boil than discuss the inner workings of FP+. I'm only interested in the final result and I will plan and make adjustments accordingly. I'm not judging people who love talking about this, because I feel the same way about fashion and other stuff. LOL.

~For me, a fabulous Disney vacation is not contingent upon how many paper fp tickets I hold in my hand. I don't place monetary value on each fastpass ticket redeemed. Just because I can only hold three ride reservations versus chasing down eight paper tickets, does not automatically register as a diminished value or vacation experience, especially when I am rewarded with more freedom and flexibility to tour to the parks much more efficiently and plan exactly what I want. I just don't feel like if I get x amount of fp's my vacation is then worth x amount.

~We're Disney commandos -- we open and close the parks! And frankly, I loved not having to run from FP machine to FP machine with no idea whether my return time would be 45 minutes or 6 hours and do this repeatedly all day just to experience attractions. I found this effort to be quite pedestrian and such a banal approach to touring the parks -- it's so inefficient to have to stop what we're doing just to race to the other side of the park for the sole purpose of pulling a fastpass and then race back to make it back within the return window *repeatedly*.

~It is the rides (themselves) and the experiences that count for me -- not the fastpasses. As long as I can enjoy the parks, I'm fine. The amount of paper tickets in my hand have no value to me.

~When I go to Disney, I want to ride Splash Mountain, I don't have to have a FP to ride Splash Mountain -- it's nice to have one, but not necessary. In our experiences, the time it takes to pull an FP and wait around for the return window, we could have just ridden standby with mad time to spare.

~I disagree with the notion that analysts are "starting to ask questions." They could not care less about this mine train or fastpass. Disney's profits for this year, including the recent 4th quarter sales were aptly described as "monster." Monster record breaking profits for Disney with the glaring absence of a new E ticket for WDW. For every one individual who is 'concerned' about fastpass and rides, there are 100 individuals who are *more* concerned with free dining.

~There is absolutely no incentive for Disney to push anything else out in 2013. The parks have become nothing more than a vehicle to promote the studio house, which then fuels multiple streams of endless income through global distribution and merchandising of consumers products and mass media.

~This article did not make national news, it's really *not* a big deal. Disney is already projected to dominate 2014 with Angelina Jolie as Malificent -- this is what's making headlines. It's going to be epic for Disney -- in addition to the premier of the 7DMT and the debut of a new parade. Disney die hard fans may be disappointed but the masses are going to go wild.

~Okay, I'm finally done. Sometimes I just can't ignore my inner pirate. Anyway, we can't wait to get back to WDW fast enough and are so excited about the Seven Dwarfs Mine Train! I'm really looking forward to another fabulous Disney vacation next year!

 

[OtherScott]

Didn't get any feedback on my buying history from the MB. I declined linking a credit card to it. I always declined it on my KTTW card. too. I don't need my CC attached to something than can pop off my wrist or that I am taking in and out of my purse every time I enter a park or get a FP-. Plus, we had heard some reports (even while there from people who had it happen), of the MBs occasionally glitching and not asking for a pin when people were charging something. To get my buying info, they will have to work a little harder by looking up the credit card info itself- which they no doubt have as well.

Honestly, I don't know what it really gains them. Before they could track my ADRs, my buying through my credit card, and my park and FP- through my KTTW. They could get the same info they can get with MB now.

If they are tracking by what FP+ you used or didn't use, they have a major flaw. They don't know why you didn't use them. I'm sure they will interpret them as not needed, when the truth some of them weren't used because they were inconvenient and a pain, and MDE was too glitchy to change anything with!

Several people on here keep talking about FP+ making less time in line and more shopping. That may be Disney's objective, but the tiered system has the exact opposite effect. They are now effectively limiting me to one FP a day, since Tier 2 has nothing for which I need a FP. As such, they are making me spend significantly more time in line, which leaves me significantly less time to shop.

RFID.

With it they will be able to track your movement throughout the park. Where you are, where you were, how you got from there to here, how long it took, what route you took, whether or not you stopped for ice cream (location based), whether or not you've eaten, whether or not you plan to, what you ate yesterday at a different park, how long you sat...

Getting the picture?

 

[OtherScott]

~I made those predictions years ago, just based on how long I estimated Disney to complete installation of all the RFID hardware and software at every POS, replacement of all the turnstiles, all of the resort rooms that required RFID readers, updating all of the ride queues, and the testing, etc.

~The timeline I originally came up with just seemed to match closely with the scheduled date of the Seven Dwarfs Mine Train. I am not surprised it worked out this way. Whether it's intended or not, it just makes sense to wait for the 7DMT to be online. I've also said, several months ago after our experience with Magic Bands and FP+ that Disney should monetize it similar to their competitors.

~For me, the FP+ discussions have become incredibly pedantic and boring, at best. It's akin to discussing how car engine parts are manufactured -- every. single. day. I don't care. When I push the button, I want my car to go. Fast. That's all. Likewise, when I go to Disney World, I want to have fun. Lots. That's all. I would rather watch water come to a full boil than discuss the inner workings of FP+. I'm only interested in the final result and I will plan and make adjustments accordingly. I'm not judging people who love talking about this, because I feel the same way about fashion and other stuff. LOL.

~For me, a fabulous Disney vacation is not contingent upon how many paper fp tickets I hold in my hand. I don't place monetary value on each fastpass ticket redeemed. Just because I can only hold three ride reservations versus chasing down eight paper tickets, does not automatically register as a diminished value or vacation experience, especially when I am rewarded with more freedom and flexibility to tour to the parks much more efficiently and plan exactly what I want. I just don't feel like if I get x amount of fp's my vacation is then worth x amount.

~We're Disney commandos -- we open and close the parks! And frankly, I loved not having to run from FP machine to FP machine with no idea whether my return time would be 45 minutes or 6 hours and do this repeatedly all day just to experience attractions. I found this effort to be quite pedestrian and such a banal approach to touring the parks -- it's so inefficient to have to stop what we're doing just to race to the other side of the park for the sole purpose of pulling a fastpass and then race back to make it back within the return window *repeatedly*.

~It is the rides (themselves) and the experiences that count for me -- not the fastpasses. As long as I can enjoy the parks, I'm fine. The amount of paper tickets in my hand have no value to me.

~When I go to Disney, I want to ride Splash Mountain, I don't have to have a FP to ride Splash Mountain -- it's nice to have one, but not necessary. In our experiences, the time it takes to pull an FP and wait around for the return window, we could have just ridden standby with mad time to spare.

~I disagree with the notion that analysts are "starting to ask questions." They could not care less about this mine train or fastpass. Disney's profits for this year, including the recent 4th quarter sales were aptly described as "monster." Monster record breaking profits for Disney with the glaring absence of a new E ticket for WDW. For every one individual who is 'concerned' about fastpass and rides, there are 100 individuals who are *more* concerned with free dining.

~There is absolutely no incentive for Disney to push anything else out in 2013. The parks have become nothing more than a vehicle to promote the studio house, which then fuels multiple streams of endless income through global distribution and merchandising of consumers products and mass media.

~This article did not make national news, it's really *not* a big deal. Disney is already projected to dominate 2014 with Angelina Jolie as Malificent -- this is what's making headlines. It's going to be epic for Disney -- in addition to the premier of the 7DMT and the debut of a new parade. Disney die hard fans may be disappointed but the masses are going to go wild.

~Okay, I'm finally done. Sometimes I just can't ignore my inner pirate. Anyway, we can't wait to get back to WDW fast enough and are so excited about the Seven Dwarfs Mine Train! I'm really looking forward to another fabulous Disney vacation next year!

pretty much

 

[DRDISNEYMD]

pretty much

~LOL.

 

[OtherScott]

~LOL.

I do like discussing the mechanics of FP+ but to discuss it outside of the overall goal of MyMagic or MDE or whatever on wants to call it is pretty shortsighted. For me, this was, is and will be about tracking behavior.period.

 

[DRDISNEYMD]

I do like discussing the mechanics of FP+ but to discuss it outside of the overall goal of MyMagic or MDE or whatever on wants to call it is pretty shortsighted. For me, this was, is and will be about tracking behavior.period.

~I don't disagree with that. But, given the fact that guests were already being tracked to a certain extent with the KTTW card, it's not a big deal for me.

 

[OtherScott]

~I don't disagree with that. But, given the fact that guests were already being tracked to a certain extent with the KTTW card, it's not a big deal for me.

Nor for me. Just wanted to point out that you can't answer the question "Why does Disney want FP+ when I don't?" without considering it is merely a portion of their overall goal (getting visitors to where a readable RFID bracelet)

 

[clsteve]

~I disagree with the notion that analysts are "starting to ask questions." They could not care less about this mine train or fastpass. Disney's profits for this year, including the recent 4th quarter sales were aptly described as "monster." Monster record breaking profits for Disney with the glaring absence of a new E ticket for WDW. For every one individual who is 'concerned' about fastpass and rides, there are 100 individuals who are *more* concerned with free dining.

~There is absolutely no incentive for Disney to push anything else out in 2013. The parks have become nothing more than a vehicle to promote the studio house, which then fuels multiple streams of endless income through global distribution and merchandising of consumers products and mass media.

~This article did not make national news, it's really *not* a big deal. Disney is already projected to dominate 2014 with Angelina Jolie as Malificent -- this is what's making headlines. It's going to be epic for Disney -- in addition to the premier of the 7DMT and the debut of a new parade. Disney die hard fans may be disappointed but the masses are going to go wild.

OK, against my better judgement, I'll take the bait...

The analysts care VERY, very much. And I'll give you 2 of the main reasons:

Profitability - This project has gone from an estimated $800 million, to $1 billion, heading north towards $1.5 billion. This is not just expense for last fiscal year and this fiscal year - it's also a futures thing. Some is immediately recognized, some is depreciated, some is amortized, etc., so not only is this a "now" issue, but also, how will the cost overruns impact future budgets - such as investments in other major projects? Will they scale them back, do them in phases, or delay them in order to maintain profitability?

Executive Credibility - Can we trust their estimates for future major projects and can they bring them in on budget (Avatar, Star Wars)? Remember the Exec's confidently put the May date out, followed by the end of last fiscal year (September), and are now not giving any dates. When they stop giving dates, it's a bright yellow caution sign. And analysts don't ask questions about things they don't care about.

But, I don't know, maybe you're right and Angelina Jolie will make all of this a non-issue .....