I'll start with the initial info of our pontential contract that is currently in the ROFR process. We will pay $55 a point for 175 pts and closing costs. This comes out to roughly 10,400. We have been to disney the last four years and see ourselves going back every year (maybe skipping a year sometimes). Now, I figured our break even point to be somewhere in the 8 to 9 year timeframe.
In 9 years we will (potentially) have spent $20374 for our points (initial cost plus MF figured in at 3% increases a year).
If we would have rented for those 9 years we would spend $22476 for the same amount of points (this is figuring $12 per point and a 1.5% increase in point rental price per year which I find very conservative)
Now, if we had put that $10400 in a high yield savings account with a 1.6% yield, at the end of 9 years we would have $12189. Take out the $10400 initial investment and the gain is $1789.
Now these figures start to make a little more sense. Add the $1789 opportunity cost to the initial DVC purchase price and yearly maintenance fees of $20374 to get $22163 which is less than $22476 that we would have spent on renting.
My example figures in a set increase or rate for every year. I realize its not exact. It also assumes that our traveling desires stay the same for the time period (deluxe studios) And it does not account for the 2012 banked points and the 2013 points that we will be unable to use unless we go above what we would normally do and either take another trip or upgrade to a 1 or 2 bedroom for a year. Nor does it figure in that at the end of the 9 years we could sell and potentially (depending on DVC demand by then) make back a good portion of our initial DVC investment.
I know the mathematicians are ready to carve this up! LOL I tried to make sure everything was unbiased as I could in my figures so give me your feedback.
In 9 years we will (potentially) have spent $20374 for our points (initial cost plus MF figured in at 3% increases a year).
If we would have rented for those 9 years we would spend $22476 for the same amount of points (this is figuring $12 per point and a 1.5% increase in point rental price per year which I find very conservative)
Now, if we had put that $10400 in a high yield savings account with a 1.6% yield, at the end of 9 years we would have $12189. Take out the $10400 initial investment and the gain is $1789.
Now these figures start to make a little more sense. Add the $1789 opportunity cost to the initial DVC purchase price and yearly maintenance fees of $20374 to get $22163 which is less than $22476 that we would have spent on renting.
My example figures in a set increase or rate for every year. I realize its not exact. It also assumes that our traveling desires stay the same for the time period (deluxe studios) And it does not account for the 2012 banked points and the 2013 points that we will be unable to use unless we go above what we would normally do and either take another trip or upgrade to a 1 or 2 bedroom for a year. Nor does it figure in that at the end of the 9 years we could sell and potentially (depending on DVC demand by then) make back a good portion of our initial DVC investment.
I know the mathematicians are ready to carve this up! LOL I tried to make sure everything was unbiased as I could in my figures so give me your feedback.
Bill
I agree with many of the tweaks that others have suggested, specifically raising your projected MF increase amount. You also need to look at what purpose this money serves for you. Is it savings? If so, you are correct in trying to determine opportunity cost. For me, however, the money I spent on DVC was going to be spent regardless. If it wasn't DVC it was going to be an upgrade in cars (but we like the ones we have now) or some extravagant vacations (like ABD). We chose DVC. So in our case the opportunity cost was zero because we committed to spending that money.
