In general, AP rates have averaged 35-40%, and sometimes a little more --- it can vary from resort to resort, time of year, and category of room. Last year, some of the discount rates were very close to the AP rates (within $10 at some of the deluxes at times). Disney changes the way discounts are handled whenever they choose to, and certainly doesn't tell us what their reasonining is. I think we need to be careful not to assume too much, based on past experience.
Discount rates have been very, very different since 9/11, and it's JMHO, but I think many people reading these boards are relying too much on what has happened with discounts in the last 18 months. Before 9/11 there were no discounts in Oct for several years in a row because that had become a busier time of year. There were rarely, if ever, discounts over major holidays. There weren't the deep 'general discounts' that were applicable to anyone who could find out the code. AP discounts, upsells, and an occasional manager's special were the major ways to get the lowest rates. There also wasn't as much availability at times -- it wasn't uncommon to have people say that missed out when they tried calling 24 hours after discounts were announced.
Perhaps business has picked up and Disney doesn't feel the need to discount the rooms as much (or perhaps additional discounts will be announced if there's still a lot of room availability). In the last few months there seems to also be a final date that discounts must be booked, which didn't used to happen, and that discourages last minute booking at a good rate.
Since this new rate doesn't seem that low, the AP rate might end up being significantly better. Wait until the AP rates come out to decide. If you're going to save a lot of $$$ at the AP rate, then you can go ahead and buy one after you secure the discount. AP's have a sneaky way of luring people back for more trips within the next year. In any event, have a great trip!