Most Reliable Crowd Calendar?

[CodeGoddess]

Two years ago I would have said Touring Plans was my go to crowd calendar but with so many changes to the parks I'm not so sure anymore.

I'm curios to know which crowd calendar you have found the most reliable recently? TIA!

 

[HerRoyalHighness]

I still go with them however I think a lot of the things they've used for determining and contributing to "historical data" is up in the air this year as far as predictions go.

 

[disneyland_is_magic]

I used Isitpacked.com for our most recent trip in the fall and I agreed with their assessment of what to expect. It's free so it can't hurt to look at. Crowds can do unpredictable things and so I keep saying I am going to just go when it's best for me and when my favorite shows and rides are running and not worry about it.

But, yeah, it's hard to not get sucked back in to looking at crowd predictions.

 

[CodeGoddess]

I used Isitpacked.com for our most recent trip in the fall and I agreed with their assessment of what to expect. It's free so it can't hurt to look at. Crowds can do unpredictable things and so I keep saying I am going to just go when it's best for me and when my favorite shows and rides are running and not worry about it.

But, yeah, it's hard to not get sucked back in to looking at crowd predictions.

We have an open ended set of options for September and October so I'm using them as a guide for which week to book (pending available dates of OBB).

 

[Jonfw2]

Find the one that says every single day going forward is a 9 or 10.

That’s the one that’s most accurate.

 

[Wesley815]

With the reservation system in place there's really no way to know. Disney is in 100% control if they want it busy or not, doesn't mater if schools are out.... since Disney can 'turn the dial' any direction. A lot of CM's call out? Turn off the res calendar, etc...

To be honest it's been busy every single day. If full price day tickets are slow to sell, I'm sure they just magically pop up Magic Key calendar days and park is full again within seconds due to locals. Anaheim is much different type of crowd [locals] vs Orlando [tourists]

I've seen it happen where a week or two stays 'sold out / closed' forever and then all of the sudden Disney drops Magic Key dates back into the bucket.

Find the one that says every single day going forward is a 9 or 10.

That’s the one that’s most accurate.

Very true!!

 

[SpringBreak]

Touringplans has Memorial Day crowds as follows:
Friday May 27th (Star Wars night) Level 5
Sat May 28th Level 6
Sun May 29th Level 6
Mon May 30 Level 5

Is this accurate? I would expect higher crowd levels.
By comparison, it has the next day, Tuesday at a Level 7.

Similarly, it has Friday, June 3rd (which is a Grad Night) at a Level 4! And the next days (Sat and Sun) at Level 5.

We are trying to plan a quick trip around Memorial Day/ first week of June and unsure of the best day.

Some of the crowd predictions on TP see too good to be true.

 

[mdmost]

I don't think anyone is reliable right now. The best idea might be to look at which single day tickets are sold out, the pricing calendar for single day tickets, and if Keys are blocked. For our early June trip, I know June 1st and 2nd are already sold out both for single day tickets and reservations, as is May 31st. These are the last two days of the lowest tier Keys before the summer blockout happens. So I'm anticipating those days are going to be tough after the early morning. Funny enough there's still Key availability on those two days so they've cut off the general public and left room for passholders on those final two days. That's actually a cool thing for them to do since there will be plenty of final moment demand for those Key holders with Fantasmic coming back. I actually agree with Touringplans on those days because it makes a lot of sense with the finality of the passholder availability for a while.

June 3rd and 4th, only the upper 2 tier Keys can be there so it will be probably lighter days combined with higher single day rates. No issues with availability for reservations or tickets those days. I don't think it will be 4s and 5s but it shouldn't be as busy as May 31-June 2.

Who really knows at this point? There's so much revenge travel that's about to happen that I don't think we'll see those easy DLR days again until next year.

A good idea is to rope drop, have a plan, and try to get as much done before the afternoon crowds show up.

 

[SpringBreak]

I don't think anyone is reliable right now. The best idea might be to look at which single day tickets are sold out, the pricing calendar for single day tickets, and if Keys are blocked. For our early June trip, I know June 1st and 2nd are already sold out both for single day tickets and reservations, as is May 31st. These are the last two days of the lower tier Keys before the summer blockout happens. So I'm anticipating those days are going to be tough after the early morning. Funny enough there's still Key availability on those two days so they've cut off the general public and left room for passholders on those final two days. That's actually a cool thing for them to do since there will be plenty of final moment demand for those Key holders with Fantasmic coming back. I actually agree with Touringplans on those days because it makes a lot of sense with the finality of the passholder availability for a while.

June 3rd and 4th, only the upper 2 tier Keys can be there so it will be probably lighter days combined with higher single day rates. No issues with availability for reservations or tickets those days. I don't think it will be 4s and 5s but it shouldn't be as busy as May 31-June 2.

Who really knows at this point? There's so much revenge travel that's about to happen that I don't think we'll see those easy DLR days again until next year.

A good idea is to rope drop, have a plan, and try to get as much done before the afternoon crowds show up.

Thanks for this...
If it were you and you were putting together a "last minute" trip with 2 little kids and 5 day PH, would you pick...
Friday June 3- Tues June 7 (3 Grad Nights) (Friday has lowest TP crowd rating of 4!)
Sat June 4 - Wed June 8 ( 3 Grad Nights)
Sun June 5 - Thursday 9 (2 Grad Nights)
Thurs May 26 - Mon May 30 (1 GN, MM Day Wknd, Star Wars Night)

 

[mdmost]

Thanks for this...
If it were you and you were putting together a "last minute" trip with 2 little kids and 5 day PH, would you pick...
Friday June 3- Tues June 7 (3 Grad Nights) (Friday has lowest TP crowd rating of 4!)
Sat June 4 - Wed June 8 ( 3 Grad Nights)
Sun June 5 - Thursday 9 (2 Grad Nights)
Thurs May 26 - Mon May 30 (1 GN, MM Day Wknd, Star Wars Night)

Well our park days are June 1-4. I choose those based on the Touringplans crowd calendar but it also just made sense for our vacation plans. I'm not overly worried about grad nights as we have 3 of them when we're there. We're going to CA on the one day when there isn't a grad night. We've been there before when they were going on and it didn't really bother us or feel busier. That could change post-Covid but I think the kids won't get there till later in the day. We always rope drop, have a plan for using Genie+ for the rides we want to do, and knock off around 2-3pm for a break and swim at the hotel and then return around 5-6pm for the evening.

I would advise against going on any themed nights like Star Wars Night since DLR closes early. I also don't think going over Memorial Day is a bad idea this year with people traveling to DLR over that weekend combined with Fantasmic returning on 5/28.

If I had to rank your options, I would say June 3-7, June 4-8th is 2nd, 5-9 is 3rd, and May as last. The Enchant Key is open June 6-9 so you may see some crowds as that's the final time for that group for part of the summer. They are blocked on June 3-5. No single day tickets are sold out on any of those times yet. Interestingly, CA is not an option for June 6-9 as the single day starting park, maybe due to Grad Night. No issues with park hopper tickets those days. An older clue on crowd levels was the single day ticket price. It's always higher on the weekends which could be a benefit now. The amounts currently are $134 for June 3 and 5-9th. It's $149 for June 4th. Previously, I believe June 1st and 2nd were $119 which led me to think it would be slower. Now there are no single day tickets for those days. Maybe they'll open up if Magic Key reservations don't get gobbled up. Seems odd that there's still availability for those days with both lower Key levels.

Honestly though, it's all a crapshoot right now. I'm just glad we're doing 4 full days so we can try to enjoy ourselves and not stress if it gets too crowded.

 

[goooof1]

None of the crowd calendars were ever reliable for Disneyland. Magic Key blockouts are generally better times to go.

 

[CodeGoddess]

None of the crowd calendars were ever reliable for Disneyland. Magic Key blockouts are generally better times to go.

Thank you that's very interesting (I'm a WDW vet so no clue on DLR).

I have read the opposite also that block out dates are usually the really heavy dates for crowds. Hence the question above as I'm stumped.

We're looking at doing a Monday through Friday in the fall because that's when dates were not blocked out for the annual pass we were looking at.

 

[Pluto468]

I always check isitpacked first, then Touring Plans. But, as many have said, it's hard to know how reliable any of them are right now. I will use them as a guideline and hope for the best.

 

[goooof1]

There are some school districts in some of the Western States that have Fall Breaks.... tends to pack the parks in Oct. like another round of Spring Breaks. There may be a thread upstream somewhere with calendars of events, school breaks, etc. (there have been for previous years...)

 

[CodeGoddess]

There are some school districts in some of the Western States that have Fall Breaks.... tends to pack the parks in Oct. like another round of Spring Breaks. There may be a thread upstream somewhere with calendars of events, school breaks, etc. (there have been for previous years...)

Thank you! We're new to the PNW and had no idea.

 

[jknc]

Thanks for this...
If it were you and you were putting together a "last minute" trip with 2 little kids and 5 day PH, would you pick...
Friday June 3- Tues June 7 (3 Grad Nights) (Friday has lowest TP crowd rating of 4!)
Sat June 4 - Wed June 8 ( 3 Grad Nights)
Sun June 5 - Thursday 9 (2 Grad Nights)
Thurs May 26 - Mon May 30 (1 GN, MM Day Wknd, Star Wars Night)

6/3 to 6/7

 

[Kerr84]

It seems like it is always crowded right now! I just expect everyday to be basically sold out.

 

[FeistyDisneyMom]

Typically the way to use blackout calendar is to avoid the dates right before blackout as passholders flock the park to get value before being blocked out, versus there being lower crowds during the blackout dates. The blackouts are typically the times Disney anticipates higher crowds/more likely people will buy regular tickets, so it isn't like the crowds will be super low, just not quite as crazy as those last few days before a passholder tier is blacked out.

It is also very beneficial to look at the events/school calendars for CA and the west in general. As a previous poster said, October around Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples Day corresponds with fall breaks for a lot of schools these days, and very high crowd levels in park akin to Spring break or even worse, as the Halloween decor and offerings attract a lot of people anyway. Summer is often a great time to go - crowd levels don't quite peak to the level you see in October, December, or spring break season, the weather is typically pretty great, and you have the full entertainment offerings plus longest hours. Just avoid the 4th of July!