So
DVC Resale Market does a solid job looking at the dues-inclusive economics of buying a
DVC contract every quarter, last one being from May:
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resorts-to-purchase-spring-2024/.
They take the tried-and-true method of taking the upfront cost then dividing equally across years remaining to get a cost/year figure that takes into account contract length. Then they add in the current year dues for an approachable and good breakdown of DVC resort economics.
But what if you want to know the economics of DVC contracts beyond year 1? What if you want to factor in the time value of money and weight sooner years more than distant years?
Well, you're in the right place then.
First, I really want to thank
@CastAStone for his
'Discount' methodology for upfront cost weighting over time as the true inspiration for this. As soon as I saw it, it was a clear "oh duh!" moment for an improved apportionment of upfront costs. Also want to thank DVC Resale Market for their analysis every quarter as a bit of inspiration, as well as sharing resale prices every month, as those will be used here.
I'll have follow-up posts explaining the math of both the upfront cost apportionment as well as Dues forecasting, as they each both deserve full explanations. I'll also reserve space for a stretch goal of factoring in
points charts, and another for factoring in cash room rates (you know what, make it a superstretch!).
So without further adieu, my forecast for the Most Economical Resort in 2025, based on buying at current resale prices (from
here), direct prices (150pt contract, existing member, and Welcome Home), and Dues:
Okay, but you're here for Beyond Year 1. Here's a chart of the forecast from 2025 - 2034:
And one through 2074, with an upper-bound set to preserve some readability:
Charts with 21 lines are tough to read, so here's tables for Year 5 (2029), Year 10 (2034), and Year 17 (2041):
But here's the thing about this, these are still only 1 year snapshots of cost. You're (probably) not keeping the contract for just 1 year, let alone specifically Year 5, 10, or 17. You gotta pay dues every year and breaking down the upfront costs over multiple years only 'works' if you keep it for multiple years.
So here's cumulative 'costs' for Years 1-5, Years 1-10, and Year 1-17:
And some critical caveats:
- I'll explain more below in my Dues Explanation post, but VGF dues feel likely to be higher than forecasted.
- There's a ton of uncertainty when forecasting dues out, much past 10-17 years is likely no better than a total guess.
- Even the next few years might be totally off!
- This is only a single 'discounting' method using a 5% value discount per year. This not necessarily better or more valid than other methodologies! Fuller explanation in a follow-up post below.
- In fact, in my personal tracking spreadsheets I use a 0% discount to keep tracking simpler.
- A medium amount of data entry and lot of spreadsheet tinkering went into this, it's possible there's a clerical error.
- In fact, about halfway into writing this I realized the resale prices I used were a hybrid of April 2024 and June 2024. I'm now using June 2024 exclusively.
Some other call outs!
- I've set this up such that updating for latest prices/dues/dues-growth is actually fairly easy, so I should be able to update and maintain this going forward!
- I've done my best with chart readability but with 21 curves it's tough. If you have any recommendations, I'll definitely listen.
- I had the semi-bright idea of using color combos from the buildings at the resorts...but it turns out a bunch are very similar!
- I might regret or stop doing this later, but after I get through all my following explanatory posts, I might even be open to taking requests of custom comparisons.
