Most Economical Resort - Beyond Year 1

[DVC Gma]

It’s impossible to know exactly what will win out when adding in TVM. I use a UST rate, because at least that is knowable.

The S&P500 is 30% higher than its long term valuation, which historically has ment lower forward returns.

The federal reserve has said that tariffs will likely lead to higher inflation and lower growth. This could be mean lower returns on risk assets and a higher rate of dues increase.

Nobody really knows.

Would you rather stay at Poly or at SSR?

I’ve seen too many threads with people complaining about not being able to book the rooms they want at 7m.

Buy where you want to stay.

I always whine if I have to do OKW or SS, but once I am there I like it. I like preferred if I do stay, but I always like the pools. The food was better than expected. And next buy, if ever, I will be "Buy where you want to stay" totally.

 

[peppertrolley]

@ehh This is fantastic! Thanks so much for putting together!

I’m wondering how difficult it would be to incorporate the concept of selling a contract instead of running it into the ground.

So say you sold the contract at 5 years, 10 years, 17 yrs.., how would the charts look then? What impact would that have on the ranked cost/wk/yr and the comparison to cash prices?

Thanks! I understand this is probably a tricky request given resale prices on the shorter lived contracts will drop precipitously faster than they have historically, but I do think it’s useful in the conversation as some costs can be recouped essentially lowering the price per point. And it might help inform when a good time to sell would be.

 

[VGCgroupie]

@ehh This is fantastic! Thanks so much for putting together!



I’m wondering how difficult it would be to incorporate the concept of selling a contract instead of running it into the ground.



So say you sold the contract at 5 years, 10 years, 17 yrs.., how would the charts look then? What impact would that have on the ranked cost/wk/yr and the comparison to cash prices?



Thanks! I understand this is probably a tricky request given resale prices on the shorter lived contracts will drop precipitously faster than they have historically, but I do think it’s useful in the conversation as some costs can be recouped essentially lowering the price per point. And it might help inform when a good time to sell would be.

Thats is broken down in the first post. Year 1. Years 5 etc. You just have to guess at what you think the contract would sell for in the future. Unfortunately nobody knows what that price will be. For my estimates we did a value of 50% less than what we paid initially for resale. For our direct at VDH we took it down to $100pp

 

[AstroBlasters]

And see my problem is, even if I am earning a better return by investing I still would never ever pay for a GV stay, I am just too cheap and it would feel like an irresponsible vacation purchase, but w/ DVC I booked the GV because I have the points to use so why not! So without DVC I would never take as good of or as many vacations even if I had the money for it from investing.

Disclaimer. Dont take vacation and/or financial advice from me.

It’s hard not to convert the point delta on room categories/sizes to their rental equivalent….

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I booked the GV because I have the points to use so why not! So without DVC I would never take as good of or as many vacations even if I had the money for it from investing.

This is me to a T.

DVC makes zero sense in a financial vacuum but once you realize the intangible value it adds to your life...assuming you're a fan of Disney and the parks and resorts of course...then it pays better dividends than any stock or fund.

 

[RamblinWreck]

And see my problem is, even if I am earning a better return by investing I still would never ever pay for a GV stay, I am just too cheap and it would feel like an irresponsible vacation purchase, but w/ DVC I booked the GV because I have the points to use so why not! So without DVC I would never take as good of or as many vacations even if I had the money for it from investing.

Disclaimer. Dont take vacation and/or financial advice from me.

That's funny, I always end up taking an opposite approach with my points.

I own at VGF and RIV and almost never stay at either (I still haven't stayed at RIV and I've owned it for at least 5 years )

We always end up staying at BLT or Boardwalk so we can get more out of our points. And then when we do that we rent out remaining points to offset other expenses. It makes me feel like I got a big discount on my park tickets!

 

[Tatebeck]

That's funny, I always end up taking an opposite approach with my points.

I own at VGF and RIV and almost never stay at either (I still haven't stayed at RIV and I've owned it for at least 5 years )

We always end up staying at BLT or Boardwalk so we can get more out of our points. And then when we do that we rent out remaining points to offset other expenses. It makes me feel like I got a big discount on my park tickets!

I do a bit of both really. Have been doing 1BRs instead of studios, even when it's just the wife and I. It lets us give an open invitation to some family too and they can come and have the living room murphy if they want. And this October we are bringing a group of 9 down in some Grand Villas on us.

But I traded points for our annual passes this year, and have rented 1 reservation out for a swap, and may do some more occasionally though we haven't used the credit yet. We may use it for Universal tickets to check out Epic universe on one of our next few trips or something

 

[AdamsMum]

No disrespect intended, I'm one of those people who's eyes glaze over at details like that. DVC is a splurge, I saw Boardwalk Villas, loved it, went home and bought a resale contract. Very technical, I know you're impressed. I can't post a laughing emoji anymore, don't know why.

 

[sethschroeder]

I doubt Poly can do this now.

I have never had an issue getting a reservation anywhere really at any resort. Haven't been since the Tower opened but when we stayed at VGF last we could have done any of the restaurants at Poly. As an example I could join the waitlist or book a reservation for tonight at Ohana.

Dining reservations are one of those things that I always feel I need then get to Disney and realize I can essentially get whatever I want still (as long as I am flexible on time).

 

[Girlstar30]

I have never had an issue getting a reservation anywhere really at any resort. Haven't been since the Tower opened but when we stayed at VGF last we could have done any of the restaurants at Poly. As an example I could join the waitlist or book a reservation for tonight at Ohana.

Dining reservations are one of those things that I always feel I need then get to Disney and realize I can essentially get whatever I want still (as long as I am flexible on time).

Tell me how to get bcv please

 

[sethschroeder]

Tell me how to get bcv please

BCV as in the rooms? If you want a room at BCV then just travel in the summer and book at 7 months. The last two times at Disney we have stayed in 2BR BCV. In 2023 it was almost 3 weeks and this year roughly 2 weeks.

I was talking about restaurants though to clarify as the poster was saying they could walk up to restaurants at BLT/VGF and get reservations while they didn't think they could do that at POLY.

 

[Girlstar30]

BCV as in the rooms? If you want a room at BCV then just travel in the summer and book at 7 months. The last two times at Disney we have stayed in 2BR BCV. In 2023 it was almost 3 weeks and this year roughly 2 weeks.

I was talking about restaurants though to clarify as the poster was saying they could walk up to restaurants at BLT/VGF and get reservations while they didn't think they could do that at POLY.

Ohhh ok I didn't read that right haha oops, I will try that i haven't had the opportunity to book at 7 months yet for a planned vacation!

 

[AstroBlasters]

I have never had an issue getting a reservation anywhere really at any resort. Haven't been since the Tower opened but when we stayed at VGF last we could have done any of the restaurants at Poly. As an example I could join the waitlist or book a reservation for tonight at Ohana.

Dining reservations are one of those things that I always feel I need then get to Disney and realize I can essentially get whatever I want still (as long as I am flexible on time).

That “as long as I am flexible on time” is a pretty darn big disclaimer.

It probably also depends on when in the year you are going, how many are in your party, etc.

 

[atthebeachclub]

That “as long as I am flexible on time” is a pretty darn big disclaimer.

I feel like there are two types of DVC owners. Those who are required to plan over 7 months in advance, and those who can pop in at their leisure. I wish I was the second! The good news is that having to be strict about booking vacations far in advance for one area of your life is helpful in the DVC area of my life too. These things go hand in hand nicely. Book DVC at 11 months on the dot, request that time off at 10 months. Then…wait!

If you always book after 7 months and are super flexible, you can get a lot of mileage from a Saratoga contract.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I feel like there are two types of DVC owners. Those who are required to plan over 7 months in advance, and those who can pop in at their leisure. I wish I was the second! The good news is that having to be strict about booking vacations far in advance for one area of your life is helpful in the DVC area of my life too. These things go hand in hand nicely. Book DVC at 11 months on the dot, request that time off at 10 months. Then…wait!

If you always book after 7 months and are super flexible, you can get a lot of mileage from a Saratoga contract.

Given the cost of a direct 5-6 hour flight each way for a family of four in seats with legroom…. at times when school is out….and park tickets… and food… and merch…. no chance I am leaving that up to the 7m leftovers.

I get that a LOT of people are not in that boat. However, I always cringe a bit when I read that someone can “always get a waitlist filled” or “always get a table” or “always find cheap flights”…. and then neglect to add the context that it’s usually just them traveling by themselves or with one other person in January or August….

(This is not specific to anyone, just in general saying that context matters).

 

[NVDISFamily]

Given the cost of a direct 5-6 hour flight each way for a family of four in seats with legroom…. at times when school is out….and park tickets… and food… and merch…. no chance I am leaving that up to the 7m leftovers.

I get that a LOT of people are not in that boat. However, I always cringe a bit when I read that someone can “always get a waitlist filled” or “always get a table” or “always find cheap flights”…. and then neglect to add the context that it’s usually just them traveling by themselves or with one other person in January or August….

(This is not specific to anyone, just in general saying that context matter).

So far the pickings in late June though early-mid July have been fairly good across the various resorts in most categories. Some one-offs from bookings over the past years.

BCV - Seems fairly easy to ninja into a single 1 or 2BR at 7m but that's all there is. Studios - forget it. This one is off the radar for family trips or brining friends and will reserved for a future "core" family only trip or we'll extend a few days and do a split stay to check this off the DVC bingo card.

BWV - I hope you love pool/garden view (and we do). Fair amount of 2BR lock offs (which means there are studios). No cheap or BW views available. Also very hard to get a 3BR for more than a few days during this time. But if you like the 2BR garden (or the components that make them) you are in luck.

Riviera - Standard views go quick with studios/duos gone first.

BLT - Seems to have some arability but haven't researched this one as much as I'd like. Theme park view and standard seem to be gone first.

Copper Creek - studios are going quick but can get one. 3BR game here is tough and can be hit or miss if you don't have the home resort points (why I need to get more CCV points in the near future).

AVK - If you want to see the animals come see the animals! Lots of rooms at Kidani open to book

Or course upcoming remodels and other curveballs can change this game

 

[JackosinDIS]

Given the cost of a direct 5-6 hour flight each way for a family of four in seats with legroom…. at times when school is out….and park tickets… and food… and merch…. no chance I am leaving that up to the 7m leftovers.

I get that a LOT of people are not in that boat. However, I always cringe a bit when I read that someone can “always get a waitlist filled” or “always get a table” or “always find cheap flights”…. and then neglect to add the context that it’s usually just them traveling by themselves or with one other person in January or August….

(This is not specific to anyone, just in general saying that context matter).

Very much agree with this!
Trying to get trans Atlantic flights on Avios points for whole family, and line up a room for 2 weeks makes the 11 month window (plus a few weeks walking) absolutely essential!

 

[DL1WDW2]

Does anybody else think the resale price for BLT is too low ?
I would sell my small contract but not for less than $200 per point
I think the current price is same as when I purchased in 2018 from DVCResale Market


I used to “ walk “ for holidays but can’t stand it anymore.
Too much work and pressure for me .
So at least one person doesn’t walk anymore if that helps.

 

[sethschroeder]

That “as long as I am flexible on time” is a pretty darn big disclaimer.

It probably also depends on when in the year you are going, how many are in your party, etc.

Not really we need party of 2 and party of 6 when traveling.

Flexible on time means don't expect to show up right at 7pm. Instead either grab open reservations maybe at 6 or 830 or grab a wait list if you want middle of dinner seating time.

I feel like there are two types of DVC owners. Those who are required to plan over 7 months in advance, and those who can pop in at their leisure. I wish I was the second! The good news is that having to be strict about booking vacations far in advance for one area of your life is helpful in the DVC area of my life too. These things go hand in hand nicely. Book DVC at 11 months on the dot, request that time off at 10 months. Then…wait!

If you always book after 7 months and are super flexible, you can get a lot of mileage from a Saratoga contract.

People are getting mixed up. The comment was specifically about dinner plans as explained.

We have booked 4th of July trips and MLK trips essentially every time we traveled since Covid. So our trips have been very specific. January we have stayed at our home resorts but 4th of July trips it's been BCV and VGF in 2br.

I passed up CCV, BRV, BLT in 2br for our 4th trips. The MLK ones I never looked that closely.

 

[sethschroeder]

@AstroBlasters examples
SPACE 220: today 1130 or 430 / tomorrow 12, 2, 630, 730, 8
CRT: today 10am
Round up rodeo: today 12, 2, 745, 8, 9, 930
Sci fi: today 2, 9
Topolino: 9, 1130, 730, 8, 9, 930

All these places have walk up/digital wait lists as well. You spoof your GPS on the phone and can join it from anywhere at WDW and see the wait and play the game of getting on the list when it's lining up to when you want to eat (they can close wait lists though at times).

Hopefully it helps knowing if you don't grab a reservation just keep checking day our or day of and you will get in.