Most Economical Resort - Beyond Year 1

[Mirabell Rose]

After 2042 (and really now too) the value in resale vs direct only matters to you the original buyer. Anything you sell later will be the same to the buyers (restricted to the remaining resorts out of the original set). It will just be less resorts to choose from at that point so the resale value on the original resorts may drop a bit lower (or restricted resorts may rise) to be closer to each other

So really you are just deciding if you would like to stay at Poly plus some possible stays at a few of the other remaining resorts for the lower resale price or be able to use points at the newer future resorts for the higher price

Very good point. And at my age, resorts past 2042 aren’t as important. But if I put my adult kids in the deed, that would pass to them - although there’s no guarantee that new resorts will even allow direct points at other resorts can be used to book them. I was trying to think of anything I missed that might be contrary to the charts that say PVB resale is a better deal.

 

[DVC Gma]

So, I am embarrassed to admit.... that all looks like some alien language. I have tried to "get it" it is just not happening, not for lack of the directions. Those make sense. So, BLT, GF, or Poly? Which is better in your opinions?

 

[Chili327]

So, I am embarrassed to admit.... that all looks like some alien language. I have tried to "get it" it is just not happening, not for lack of the directions. Those make sense. So, BLT, GF, or Poly? Which is better in your opinions?

I feel your pain. I just compare numbers when one is higher or lower, it tells me one is better than another.

BLT might be best bang for your buck on resale and Poly is probably best bet for direct.
VGF isn’t a great buy except for maybe SAP+ because of the dues, so if you get it cheap enough and you like it.

 

[Tatebeck]

So, I am embarrassed to admit.... that all looks like some alien language. I have tried to "get it" it is just not happening, not for lack of the directions. Those make sense. So, BLT, GF, or Poly? Which is better in your opinions?

Out of those three:
BLT if you want best value on SAP+ or want the shortest walk to MK
Poly if you are wanting to buy direct (or love the Poly and must stay there)
VGF if you love VGF and must stay there

 

[Brian Noble]

Which is better in your opinions?

They are all very different. Is there one theme you just love?

 

[DVC Gma]

They are all very different. Is there one theme you just love?

Out of those three:
BLT if you want best value on SAP+ or want the shortest walk to MK
Poly if you are wanting to buy direct (or love the Poly and must stay there)
VGF if you love VGF and must stay there

I have been lucky enough to stay at all 3. I Love Poly, the atmosphere, but it is crowded & this was before the Tower was opened. I like GF's Big Pine building. The rooms are gorgeous & have 2 BEDS! LOL BLT is ok, we had a lovely time there. I lean BLT to save money.

I feel your pain. I just compare numbers when one is higher or lower, it tells me one is better than another.

BLT might be best bang for your buck on resale and Poly is probably best bet for direct.
VGF isn’t a great buy except for maybe SAP+ because of the dues, so if you get it cheap enough and you like it.

I worry BLT with the refurbishment will jack up the dues to equal the other 2, so then choosing will be a little more equal. Except, I am waiting to hear the reports on the Poly Tower. Like how busy the main resort is, the monorail, pools, restaurants.
Edit to add. At GF we were able to walk up the the restaurants and have a spot. (We didn't do Citrcos this visit though.) That was nice when my mom didn't feel like traveling to other locations. I doubt Poly can do this now. BLT was the same walk up, no issues.

 

[Brian Noble]

I lean BLT to save money.

You have to decide how to balance cost and your preferences. Only you can do this.

I decided that if I was spending five figures anyway, I may as well buy the thing I really wanted, rather than settle for something that would be just okay. And it sounds to me as though you think of BLT as just okay.

At GF we were able to walk up the the restaurants and have a spot.

This may have more to do with when you were there vs. whether the restaurant was busy. If this is important to you, take a look at same-day reservation availability at the various resorts to see what availability looks like over time.

 

[DVC Gma]

You have to decide how to balance cost and your preferences. Only you can do this.

I decided that if I was spending five figures anyway, I may as well buy the thing I really wanted, rather than settle for something that would be just okay. And it sounds to me as though you think of BLT as just okay.

This may have more to do with when you were there vs. whether the restaurant was busy. If this is important to you, take a look at same-day reservation availability at the various resorts to see what availability looks like over time.

You are right. I loved the convenience of BLT, but I think your right with it's just ok. My mom would choose GF hands down, but Poly/Hawai'i vibe calls me. (been to HI twice, but not to Aulan'i.)
Good idea about watching the same day reservation availability. We usually go the same time each trip so it will be easy to track. Thanks!

 

[ehh]

So I'm starting to work on the "What price is a good resale price for a restricted resort?" experiment and...

• It's surprisingly complicated for RIV/VDH, where 'what room?', 'when are you booking?', and 'how much do you want to stay at RIV/VDH?' variables are increasing the work going into it, especially at Riviera with its extremely unbalanced availability (based on room type).
  • Ultimately, I want to simplify this to a single-variable spectrum when I finally build up the post, if I can. I don't see any way I can put a single price/pt on it though.
• CFW is not nearly as complicated. Number comes in as low as $25/pt, depending on what kind of buyer you are!

 

[AstroBlasters]

So I'm starting to work on the "What price is a good resale price for a restricted resort?" experiment and...

• It's surprisingly complicated for RIV/VDH, where 'what room?', 'when are you booking?', and 'how much do you want to stay at RIV/VDH?' variables are increasing the work going into it, especially at Riviera with its extremely unbalanced availability (based on room type).
  • Ultimately, I want to simplify this to a single-variable spectrum when I finally build up the post, if I can. I don't see any way I can put a single price/pt on it though.
• CFW is not nearly as complicated. Number comes in as low as $25/pt, depending on what kind of buyer you are!

I know with VDH there are a couple of times during the year that align with our kids school schedule that are a lot less points of VGC…. especially when looking at 1BDs.

For instance, August 17-21st in a 1BD is 132 points at VDH and 208 points at VGC. That’s 58% more points.

But, of course that’s not the whole story. Now add in an extra $1 per point in dues and an extra $95 a night in TOT.

So, that’s $95 x 4 nights = $380 + $132 dues … $512.

$512/$25pp cost to rent = 21points. I used $25pp because that’s the going rate to rent VDH home resort at the moment. I’m sure that could go down as more points sell.

So, it’s really around 153 points adjusted for dues and tax. Thats still a lot better than 208 points.

 

[Brian Noble]

Plus you didn’t have to buy those extra 21 points.

 

[CVG]

I like CCV. But I bet the point per square foot is proportional to the higher charts at VGF/RR.

Ahem, @ehh, new experiment please

I was just going to ask the same. I want to know the value of the area I'm getting. Would that be possible?

 

[CVG]

^ I mean, that's probably one of the reasons for the dues being higher in some places than others, i.e. more carpeting, more painting, more kitchen, more roofing, more landscaping, etc - the costs of maintaining a resort versus a tower block.

 

[Cfabar1]

^ I mean, that's probably one of the reasons for the dues being higher in some places than others, i.e. more carpeting, more painting, more kitchen, more roofing, more landscaping, etc - the costs of maintaining a resort versus a tower block.

THat's a big problem OKW seems to have, but SSR dues aren't too bad and it is sprawling.... so who knows...

 

[PlutoNotThePlanet]

I really appreciate this thread and keep coming back to it as I love the analysis, especially incorporating the discount rate and dues predictions. However I have a question I hope someone who has thought more about this can answer:

How should I think about the time value of money with respect to dues and the portion of ownership costs that relate to that? Given two resorts that have similar total costs of ownership over the time horizon in question, shouldn't I value a contract where the cost is mostly near the end over one that has a higher upfront cost?

I'll pick PVB-R and SSR just to make an example financially (obviously there are many non-financial differences between these resorts). For the sake of argument, let's look at a 17 year time horizon and assume that the dues predictions are completely accurate.

The January 2025 update from @ehh shows that the Years 1-17 cumulative cost of ownership is very close (within 0.1%) with SSR at $295.41/point and PVB-R at $295.09/point. However, SSR has a much lower upfront cost and higher predicted dues over the 17 year period.

In Year 1:
SSR: $14.91 per point
PVB-R: $17.33 per point

In Year 17:
SSR: $21.53 per point
PVB-R: $18.54 per point

I feel like PVB-R actually has a much higher "cost" over the 17 year period because so much of it is in Year 1 (purchase price) whereas a higher percent of the SSR cost is dues farther in the futuer.

I assume these are in nominal dollars. If I want to take into account the time value of money for the whole contract, should I discount future dues at the same discount rate (let's say 5%) as I do the points? Is the best way to compare to compute the net present value of the upfront cost + discounted dues over the time horizon and then compare?

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Me trying to follow along...

 

[Girlstar30]

Me trying to follow along...
View attachment 965417

They lost me at the chart with all the curved lines

 

[AstroBlasters]

I really appreciate this thread and keep coming back to it as I love the analysis, especially incorporating the discount rate and dues predictions. However I have a question I hope someone who has thought more about this can answer:

How should I think about the time value of money with respect to dues and the portion of ownership costs that relate to that? Given two resorts that have similar total costs of ownership over the time horizon in question, shouldn't I value a contract where the cost is mostly near the end over one that has a higher upfront cost?

I'll pick PVB-R and SSR just to make an example financially (obviously there are many non-financial differences between these resorts). For the sake of argument, let's look at a 17 year time horizon and assume that the dues predictions are completely accurate.

The January 2025 update from @ehh shows that the Years 1-17 cumulative cost of ownership is very close (within 0.1%) with SSR at $295.41/point and PVB-R at $295.09/point. However, SSR has a much lower upfront cost and higher predicted dues over the 17 year period.

In Year 1:
SSR: $14.91 per point
PVB-R: $17.33 per point

In Year 17:
SSR: $21.53 per point
PVB-R: $18.54 per point

I feel like PVB-R actually has a much higher "cost" over the 17 year period because so much of it is in Year 1 (purchase price) whereas a higher percent of the SSR cost is dues farther in the futuer.

I assume these are in nominal dollars. If I want to take into account the time value of money for the whole contract, should I discount future dues at the same discount rate (let's say 5%) as I do the points? Is the best way to compare to compute the net present value of the upfront cost + discounted dues over the time horizon and then compare?

It’s impossible to know exactly what will win out when adding in TVM. I use a UST rate, because at least that is knowable.

The S&P500 is 30% higher than its long term valuation, which historically has ment lower forward returns.

The federal reserve has said that tariffs will likely lead to higher inflation and lower growth. This could be mean lower returns on risk assets and a higher rate of dues increase.

Nobody really knows.

Would you rather stay at Poly or at SSR?

I’ve seen too many threads with people complaining about not being able to book the rooms they want at 7m.

Buy where you want to stay.

 

[Brian Noble]

When I am doing NPV/discount computations, I usually use a range of "expected inflation" rates from about 2.5% to about 5.5%. The 2.5% captures the last 25 years almost on the nose. 5.5% covers the range of 1970 to 1995. Over shorter periods it could be higher or lower, but the longer the term the more comfortable I am with those ranges being the endpoints.

 

[VGCgroupie]

It’s impossible to know exactly what will win out when adding in TVM. I use a UST rate, because at least that is knowable.

The S&P500 is 30% higher than its long term valuation, which historically has ment lower forward returns.

The federal reserve has said that tariffs will likely lead to higher inflation and lower growth. This could be mean lower returns on risk assets and a higher rate of dues increase.

Nobody really knows.

Would you rather stay at Poly or at SSR?

I’ve seen too many threads with people complaining about not being able to book the rooms they want at 7m.

Buy where you want to stay.

And see my problem is, even if I am earning a better return by investing I still would never ever pay for a GV stay, I am just too cheap and it would feel like an irresponsible vacation purchase, but w/ DVC I booked the GV because I have the points to use so why not! So without DVC I would never take as good of or as many vacations even if I had the money for it from investing.

Disclaimer. Dont take vacation and/or financial advice from me.