Most Economical DVC Property 2023

[Yankee626]

ALL points are not created equal . Lets take a quick look at 2 Resorts on the opposite side of the Maint Fee spectrum. GFR has a resale Value of about $170 and MF of about $7 a point with a 2066 End of contract . Now VB is selling for about $80 a point with MF almost $14 a point with a 2042 end of contract . Quick math would tell me VB is overpriced by about 50% and should be selling around $40 a point for equal value. Its got 24 less years and double the MF pp . If the Maint Fees were the same then it would be priced right at $80 pp but divide in half because of the dif in MF Cost. Just my opinion based on simple math.

 

[Yankee626]

I bought VGC just to use at VGC. I’m going to buy SSR or AUL to use everywhere else. Though I did look at potential travel dates and realized I could get most of what I want (2 BR) at 7 months.

Exactly

 

[Mikey15]

ALL points are not created equal . Lets take a quick look at 2 Resorts on the opposite side of the Maint Fee spectrum. GFR has a resale Value of about $170 and MF of about $7 a point with a 2066 End of contract . Now VB is selling for about $80 a point with MF almost $14 a point with a 2042 end of contract . Quick math would tell me VB is overpriced by about 50% and should be selling around $40 a point for equal value. Its got 24 less years and double the MF pp . If the Maint Fees were the same then it would be priced right at $80 pp but divide in half because of the dif in MF Cost. Just my opinion based on simple math.

This is all very true.

Admittedly VB is an extreme example/comparison. Despite the nominal equality of all points at 7mo, due to the major price and MF differences, VB&HHI is basically a separate category, as are the California resorts, and Aulani. When looking at just the WDW DVC resorts, the numbers get a lot closer and the comparisons more grey.

Beyond the raw $/pt math, there’s also some resorts (or categories) that are just better deals (fewer points) than the others, some with fringe benefits (2nd shower in Poly Studios, or 2nd bathroom in some 1BR but not others). At 7 months, SSR or OKW’57 points probably math better, but that doesn’t help you if can’t book what you’re actually counting on.

 

[zavandor]

I am not a fan of any calculation that splits the buy in cost by the number of years remaining.

OKW extended averages about $8 more than OKW expiring in 2042. This tells us that years far in the future are not even worth $1 per year. It's not just perception, it has a good rationale in it: as time passes, "risk" increases: risk of a recession that might force us to sell, being bored by Disney, illness... etc etc. While we may think we're going to use the contract until expiry, the longer the contract, they higher the risk of not being able to use it.

The value of a contract per year, is not linear, it quickly decreases after the 10 year mark. I think resorts with a cheaper buy in should rank higher than newer but more expensive resorts.

 

[Nursemanit]

I am not a fan of any calculation that splits the buy in cost by the number of years remaining.

OKW extended averages about $8 more than OKW expiring in 2042. This tells us that years far in the future are not even worth $1 per year. It's not just perception, it has a good rationale in it: as time passes, "risk" increases: risk of a recession that might force us to sell, being bored by Disney, illness... etc etc. While we may think we're going to use the contract until expiry, the longer the contract, they higher the risk of not being able to use it.

The value of a contract per year, is not linear, it quickly decreases after the 10 year mark. I think resorts with a cheaper buy in should rank higher than newer but more expensive resorts.

The risk of not being able to use the contract is covered by the value of resale. A contract with 29 years left will sell more than a contract with 1 year left. Math does not change based on perception. The value of a contract is linear absent closing costs.

When you buy 100 BWV you are purchasing 1900 points. When you buy 100 RR you are purchasing 4700 points. That is the only thing you are purchasing.

In 19 years OKW extended will not be $8 a point when sold, OKW 42 will be $0.

 

[tom1944]

The risk of not being able to use the contract is covered by the value of resale. A contract with 29 years left will sell more than a contract with 1 year left. Math does not change based on perception. The value of a contract is linear absent closing costs.

When you buy 100 BWV you are purchasing 1900 points. When you buy 100 RR you are purchasing 4700 points. That is the only thing you are purchasing.

In 19 years OKW extended will not be $8 a point when sold, OKW 42 will be $0.

Some resorts with 20 years left will sell for more than resorts with 30 years left. We know which ones they are now but there is no guarantee which resorts they will be in the future

The resorts that hold their resale value at the time you go to sell ultimately are the most economical and we can only make an educated guess on which they will be

 

[Sandisw]

Some resorts with 20 years left will sell for more than resorts with 30 years left. We know which ones they are now but there is no guarantee which resorts they will be in the future

The resorts that hold their resale value at the time you go to sell ultimately are the most economical and we can only make an educated guess on which they will be

Pretty confident that the near park resorts will retain value far longer than the ones that are not.

But I think when we get to 10 years left of any resort, the resale price will plummet because the buyer pool will shrink.

I still believe that buying a resort you are want to stay at is the most important thing and that plays a role in determining it all.

 

[tom1944]

Pretty confident that the near park resorts will retain value far longer than the ones that are not.

But I think when we get to 10 years left of any resort, the resale price will plummet because the buyer pool will shrink.

I still believe that buying a resort you are want to stay at is the most important thing and that plays a role in determining it all.

I do not disagree. I believe the monorail resorts will have higher resale value years from now than the other resorts

Something that could change a resort’s value is an extension of the Skyliner to specific parks or some kind of major park expansion near resorts considered to be remote locations.

 

[JoeyPeligroso]

I do not disagree. I believe the monorail resorts will have higher resale value years from now than the other resorts

Something that could change a resort’s value is an extension of the Skyliner to specific parks or some kind of major park expansion near resorts considered to be remote locations.

Agree, and I’d love to see the Skyliner expand.

Adding options for more remote locations such as AKV would be awesome for guests and would likely change value. Even the walking path at VGF significantly changed my perception of options there. In contrast, the removal of the walking path from WL to Ft Wilderness and the loss of the resort to resort boats took away from the transportation and recreation options there in my opinion.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Since this is about what is the most “economical” resort, I will point out that people who ignore the length of contract are exhibiting hyperbolic discounting: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperbolic_discounting

 

[tom1944]

Since this is about what is the most “economical” resort, I will point out that people who ignore the length of contract are exhibiting hyperbolic discounting: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperbolic_discounting

So how does that manifest in the rankings

Is Riviera the most economical resort but not recognized because of hyperbolic discounting?

 

[AstroBlasters]

So how does that manifest in the rankings

Is Riviera the most economical resort but not recognized because of hyperbolic discounting?

RIV was ranked as the second most economical resort because the formula by the board sponsor removes the discounting bias.

If the avg resale price per point for RIV was under $140, and all other variables were unchanged, then it would have ranked at the top.

I am sure that some models that take into account TVM on the buy-in would shift the leaderboard as well.

I’m fine using the board sponsor’s model, I would just adjust the price per point pricing because it seems high.

 

[Nursemanit]

I am not very monorail-focused, I think the Epcot area ( Friendship boats - Skyliner - Walking) is the future as attendance at DS has really grown with the expansion. The monorail services one park well, and one park not so well. I tend to walk or take the boat when at VGF or Poly and take the bus to Epcot for speed.

 

[zavandor]

The value of a contract is linear absent closing costs.

No it's not. Extended OKW contracts sell for only $8 more than OKW standard. And it has been true for over 10 years.
Someone who bought OKW extended 10 years ago paid $8 more per point than if they bought OKW standard. If they resell it today they'll get $8 back, with the net result is that they kept more money bind to the contract for nothing. If you account for TVM they lost money, even more so if they financed the purchase.
Now it's true that things may change 10 years from now for OKW and other 2042 resorts, since they start nearing expiration, but for someone comparing RR, Poly or GFV, the extra years are worth very little if anything at all. Contract length for the newest resorts won't start playing a role before 20 years from now. It's not linear.

 

[tom1944]

I am not very monorail-focused, I think the Epcot area ( Friendship boats - Skyliner - Walking) is the future as attendance at DS has really grown with the expansion. The monorail services one park well, and one park not so well. I tend to walk or take the boat when at VGF or Poly and take the bus to Epcot for speed.

The Epcot resorts value are held back long term by the contract expiration dates and the newest resort by the restrictions on resale purchases


How long ago was Swan/Dolphin built? That seems to be a valuable location that I am surprised Disney was willing to sell to Marriott.

I have to google the history of that resort

 

[AC168]

Factoring in opportunity cost of capital and times and locations and where you fall in the points charts can make a difference in viewpoints.

 

[tom1944]

History[edit]​

In the late 1980s, Disney saw that they were losing business to area hotels that catered to conventions and large meetings, so Michael Eisner decided to build a convention-oriented hotel near Epcot. The Tishman Group, the contractor who was hired to build Epcot and who also had hotels in the nearby Disney hotel zone, claimed that the Epcot deal gave them exclusive rights to operate convention hotels on the Disney property, so Disney partnered with Tishman to develop the Swan and Dolphin complex. The Swan was managed by Westin Hotels & Resorts, and the Dolphin by Sheraton Hotels & Resorts.[4] Eisner had used Graves for other company projects and wanted to continue to build striking, unique buildings.[5]

Tishman and MetLife own the buildings, but have a 99-year lease on the land from Disney. Disney also receives a share of the hotel's revenues, and has a say in any design or architecture changes to the interior or exterior of the buildings.[6]

 

[CarolMN]

No it's not. Extended OKW contracts sell for only $8 more than OKW standard. And it has been true for over 10 years.
Someone who bought OKW extended 10 years ago paid $8 more per point than if they bought OKW standard. If they resell it today they'll get $8 back, with the net result is that they kept more money bind to the contract for nothing. If you account for TVM they lost money, even more so if they financed the purchase.
Now it's true that things may change 10 years from now for OKW and other 2042 resorts, since they start nearing expiration, but for someone comparing RR, Poly or GFV, the extra years are worth very little if anything at all. Contract length for the newest resorts won't start playing a role before 20 years from now. It's not linear.

I agree with you - and so does the resale market. In fact, the resale market has NEVER valued OKW-Extended at anywhere close to what Disney charged for it.

 

[Nursemanit]

I agree with you - and so does the resale market. In fact, the resale market has NEVER valued OKW-Extended at anywhere close to what Disney charged for it.

Looking at sales and not listings - it's not as bad as $8 but it's only about $15 difference; way below the $35 to $40 expected of linear distribution. Why is this resort not selling in a linear pattern like the other resorts? I don't think it is reasonable to say the buyers are not valuing the extra 15 years.

More likely I think SSR is the answer. It looks like SSR is at a 137 median vs OKW 136 median ( M/A/May 22 sales). Now there are some small sales of OKW over the price of SSR which could be a personal choice / add ons but I think buyers are looking at the end dates 3 years apart, SSR with $7.86 MF per point and OKW with $9.36 / pt MF, and making the most economical choice. You could say they are not pricing in the 3 years which is more reasonable.

The two resorts are of course very different in many ways, especially to a knowledgeable DVC owner - But to a newcomer, they are seeing a 3-year contract difference, elevators vs stairs, basically the same location, newer, and way cheaper to own long-term. Why would they pay more for OKWextended?

Disney really miscalculated with the extension. The real strange thing is that based on the SSR numbers -OKW 42 should be selling for LESS - like $70 / point. Considering the age ( some over 1 year) of the 303 open OKW 2042 listings we could see this correct soon.

 

[Nursemanit]

for someone comparing RR, Poly or GFV, the extra years are worth very little if anything at all. Contract length for the newest resorts won't start playing a role before 20 years from now. It's not linear.

The maintenance fees make up for the difference - RR , and GVF are acting as expected. The 6 years is eaten up with the large maintenance fee difference.