Monthly Sales Data - Updated for November 2010

[wdrl]

UPDATED 12/03/2010 I have updated my chart on Sales Data for DVC's WDW Resorts to include data for November 2010. See Post #51 for the revised chart: http://www.disboards.com/showpost.php?p=39135269&postcount=51

UPDATED 11/02/2010 I have updated my chart on Sales Data for DVC's WDW Resorts to include data for October 2010. See Post #46 for the revised chart: http://www.disboards.com/showpost.php?p=38809666&postcount=46.





UPDATED 10/12/2010: I have updated my chart on Sales Data for DVC's WDW Resorts to include data for September 2010. My thanks to dizfan for tracking the number of BLT contracts sold by DVD during the month.

Thanks to public records available at the Orange County Comptroller's (OCC) website, we can track sales of the DVC resorts located at WDW. There is some delay between the actual date of sale and when a deed is recorded and filed at OCC. However, this delay is usually just a few days to about a month, depending on how quickly the buyer returns the paperwork to Disney.

The chart below shows the number of deeds and points recorded during the calendar months of July, August, and September 2010.

BLT sales continue to do well. I still believe that by next Fall 98% of BLT will be sold, which is the maximum number of points that can sold to the public.

I continue to be amazed at how few points are being sold at AKV. September's AKV sales total of 13,649 points is less than a two-bedroom unit, which is allotted 16,290 points. At the current rate of sales, it will take AKV about 208 months (17+ years) to reach the 98% sales level.

I wish I could add Aulani, VGC, VB, and HHI to the chart, but the county property offices servicing those resorts are not as user friendly as the OCC.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Of course they have a ton of Saratoga to sell....

i've been doing a 5 year case study on that thing...it's pretty obvious that there is much available and why that is so.

 

[DBBN]

Thanks for taking the time to compile then post this for us. I enjoy seeing this type of information.

 

[skelfbsfb]

Very interesting info,really surprised at the OKW sales.

 

[Havana]

Thank you very much for posting! Very interesting to see the data

 

[drusba]

Wow! great info in summary form, wdrl. I don't even want to ask the amount of work that goes into it. I'll wait for each month's report. This could become like an earnings report, where you could show current month compared to last month and to same month prior year. (We may even have to start some futures contracts betting on future months' reports.)

 

[wdrl]

Wow! great info in summary form, wdrl. I don't even want to ask the amount of work that goes into it. I'll wait for each month's report. This could become like an earnings report, where you could show current month compared to last month and to same month prior year. (We may even have to start some futures contracts betting on future months' reports.)

About a year ago I starting tracking BLT declarations and sales. Then we added on at AKV so I thought it was only fair to track AKV sales as well. Then it was a short step up to track just the THV Units at SSR (there are only 15 of them). Next, the 2011 point charts came out and I wanted to check whether the point reallocation was really neutral. So I compiled the data for VWL, the smallest WDW resort, thinking it would be the easiest and fastest to compile. Once I posted my findings for VWL, someone asked me to do the same analysis for BWV. So I collected the data for BWV as well. Oh, and then we got into a lengthy discussion whether Disney can allocate different point amounts to same-sized Units at the same resort, so that called for more data collection. Then, Disney reduced the price for OKW, so I started tracking sales for it to see how well it would sell. At the same time, I thought I might as well track resales on BCV and BWV to see if there was still demand since they were priced at $115/point. And now Disney is selling a lot of SSR, so I thought I needed to track all of SSR, not just the THVs, to see how it impacted sales at other resorts. I was hoping I could track Aulani sales and declarations, but HBC charges $1 a page to read a document, so I can't do much with Aulani right now. But if I run out of things to track, I might start tracking liens filed by Disney. There were about 1,000 filed in July 2009, and about 1,300 liens filed in July 2010. I'd like to break out those number by resort.

So, no, it doesn't take much time to make up the chart in the first post. . . I already have the data at my fingertips!!

It would be fun playing a futures game predicting sales at the WDW resorts. But I know I wouldn't be very good at predicting the market or what Disney might do. Disney has surprised me more than once with how they handle declarations, causing me to be wrong with my predictions. And as a big fan of AKV, I don't understand why the market hasn't embraced AKV more than it has.

 

[disneynutz]

So that's about 14 million dollars in BLT sales alone and that was only for July, correct?

Bill

 

[gkrykewy]

Hoping for better incentives/pricing for AKV. Another add-on is not out of the question if they sweeten the pot.

 

[bobbiwoz]

Thanks for this information. It's the SSR direct sales that surprise me!

 

[adminjedi]

Hoping for better incentives/pricing for AKV. Another add-on is not out of the question if they sweeten the pot.

There with you!

 

[drusba]

About a year ago I starting tracking BLT declarations and sales. Then we added on at AKV so I thought it was only fair to track AKV sales as well. Then it was a short step up to track just the THV Units at SSR (there are only 15 of them). Next, the 2011 point charts came out and I wanted to check whether the point reallocation was really neutral. So I compiled the data for VWL, the smallest WDW resort, thinking it would be the easiest and fastest to compile. Once I posted my findings for VWL, someone asked me to do the same analysis for BWV. So I collected the data for BWV as well. Oh, and then we got into a lengthy discussion whether Disney can allocate different point amounts to same-sized Units at the same resort, so that called for more data collection. Then, Disney reduced the price for OKW, so I started tracking sales for it to see how well it would sell. At the same time, I thought I might as well track resales on BCV and BWV to see if there was still demand since they were priced at $115/point. And now Disney is selling a lot of SSR, so I thought I needed to track all of SSR, not just the THVs, to see how it impacted sales at other resorts. I was hoping I could track Aulani sales and declarations, but HBC charges $1 a page to read a document, so I can't do much with Aulani right now. But if I run out of things to track, I might start tracking liens filed by Disney. There were about 1,000 filed in July 2009, and about 1,300 liens filed in July 2010. I'd like to break out those number by resort.

So, no, it doesn't take much time to make up the chart in the first post. . . I already have the data at my fingertips!!

It would be fun playing a futures game predicting sales at the WDW resorts. But I know I wouldn't be very good at predicting the market or what Disney might do. Disney has surprised me more than once with how they handle declarations, causing me to be wrong with my predictions. And as a big fan of AKV, I don't understand why the market hasn't embraced AKV more than it has.

LOL: it is like the novelist who says it only took him five minutes to finish the 500 page novel he'd been working on for a year.

I am also somewhat surprised at how large a gap there is between BLT and AKV (has it been that way for many months?). Own at BWV and AKV and I don't think I could live without savanna view at AKV. I am guessing that many SSR sales are mainly driven by price and there are still many who buy there with the intent of usually staying elsewhere (although the treehouses add a uniqueness and I personally very much like the view from the Congress Park units). I am also guessing AKV has the "outback" problem -- many just feel it is just too far away from everything even much further than SSR and OKW. It will be interesting to see when BLT sells out and then how long it takes thereafter for AKV to do so.

 

[gkrykewy]

LOL: it is like the novelist who says it only took him five minutes to finish the 500 page novel he'd been working on for a year.

I am also somewhat surprised at how large a gap there is between BLT and AKV (has it been that way for many months?). Own at BWV and AKV and I don't think I could live without savanna view at AKV. I am guessing that many SSR sales are mainly driven by price and there are still many who buy there with the intent of usually staying elsewhere (although the treehouses add a uniqueness and I personally very much like the view from the Congress Park units). I am also guessing AKV has the "outback" problem -- many just feel it is just too far away from everything even much further than SSR and OKW. It will be interesting to see when BLT sells out and then how long it takes thereafter for AKV to do so.

OP probably has data, but my impression is that AKV was selling relatively briskly earlier this spring/summer when it had a little more price separation from BLT.

 

[SabresFan]

Very informative - thanks for going through the effort to collect this.

Just curious - do these only reflect direct sales by DVC, or do they include resales?

 

[wdrl]

Very informative - thanks for going through the effort to collect this.

Just curious - do these only reflect direct sales by DVC, or do they include resales?

The data in my chart represents just direct sales from Disney.

 

[cvjw]

And as a big fan of AKV, I don't understand why the market hasn't embraced AKV more than it has.

I would love to own at AKV, as we fell in love with Kidani when we stayed there in May. The potential for high maintenance fees is keeping us away. They already have pretty high fees for a new resort, who knows where the fees will go when the resort sells out.

 

[gkrykewy]

I would love to own at AKV, as we fell in love with Kidani when we stayed there in May. The potential for high maintenance fees is keeping us away. They already have pretty high fees for a new resort, who knows where the fees will go when the resort sells out.

I don't think that's much of a concern. As a proportion of total expenses, I don't think animal care is very expensive.

Among the "new" resorts, it's more the case that GCV and BLT have low fees (owing to higher point requirements for stays) than that AKV has high fees. AKV is right in the middle of the pack among all resorts.

 

[wdrl]

I am also somewhat surprised at how large a gap there is between BLT and AKV (has it been that way for many months?). .

BLT sales have outpaced AKV sales most of the time. Last Fall, right after Disney raised BLT's price to $120/point, AKV's sales matched or even slightly exceeded BLT's sales. But AKV's time atop the sales chart was short lived, and by December BLT resumed its position as the #1 seller.

 

[dis-happy]

Interesting and thanks for compiling.

Are the ROFR's included or trackable too???

 

[GrumpyPOTFH]

Interesting numbers, we are part of the numbers for BLT.