Monorail Resale

[DisneyYannuzzFam]

Do you think the low prices for VGF2 will affect resale for the monorail resorts? Thinking of unloading a poly contract and picking up 200-300 VGF2 points. I love VGF and this would make me a blue card (not that it matter to much) and My home resort, but VGF resale was always a bit too pricey for me so we never bought.

 

[DVChris]

Yes if Disney continues with the current low price for an extended period of time. I spoke with 2 brokers late last week and they also thought prices have/will drop for all monorail resorts plus CCV. If DVC dramatically increases GF2 in the near future then less of an impact.

 

[Marionnette]

Do you think the low prices for VGF2 will affect resale for the monorail resorts? Thinking of unloading a poly contract and picking up 200-300 VGF2 points. I love VGF and this would make me a blue card (not that it matter to much) and My home resort, but VGF resale was always a bit too pricey for me so we never bought.

I think that there will be a slight domino effect but people who want Poly are still going to buy Poly and not VGF. There will be some buyers who analyze contract life and annual dues and then factor in larger accommodation availability at 7 months to determine their decision. But I think the greatest impact will be on VGF resale, which was already too high.

 

[stwaldman]

Do you think the low prices for VGF2 will affect resale for the monorail resorts? Thinking of unloading a poly contract and picking up 200-300 VGF2 points. I love VGF and this would make me a blue card (not that it matter to much) and My home resort, but VGF resale was always a bit too pricey for me so we never bought.

I think Disney's overall approach to direct sales right now is going to affect monorail (and other resort) resale prices. The recent BLT incentives, the influx of VGF points that look a lot like poly points (easy access to the park, but too many studios), and also Poly points are starting to enter that magic 7-10 year post resort opening range where original owners who may have bought with young families are going to be phasing out of DVC making supply of points increase.

Not sure any of this is going to like, tank resale prices or anything, but if you have a personal reason to want VGF (blue card, or maybe you always wanted VGF, but were only buying when poly was active), this is as good a chance as you might get to "convert" your home resort. The incremental increases in Poly contract value over time aren't likely going to outweigh the relative direct price for VGF, if you really want it.

Another way to look at it (as I think you presented it), you seem to have interest in some combo of VGF being preferred over poly and also somewhat like the idea of getting a blue card. the difference between average poly prices (per the board sponsor) after the commission/fees are probably in the 160s right now, and a 200/300 point contract at VGF is going to be priced around 179-186pp after incentives. is this "upgrade" to your membership worth approx. $20-25 per point (I dont know how big the contract your selling is).

 

[DisneyYannuzzFam]

I think Disney's overall approach to direct sales right now is going to affect monorail (and other resort) resale prices. The recent BLT incentives, the influx of VGF points that look a lot like poly points (easy access to the park, but too many studios), and also Poly points are starting to enter that magic 7-10 year post resort opening range where original owners who may have bought with young families are going to be phasing out of DVC making supply of points increase.

Not sure any of this is going to like, tank resale prices or anything, but if you have a personal reason to want VGF (blue card, or maybe you always wanted VGF, but were only buying when poly was active), this is as good a chance as you might get to "convert" your home resort. The incremental increases in Poly contract value over time aren't likely going to outweigh the relative direct price for VGF, if you really want it.

Another way to look at it (as I think you presented it), you seem to have interest in some combo of VGF being preferred over poly and also somewhat like the idea of getting a blue card. the difference between average poly prices (per the board sponsor) after the commission/fees are probably in the 160s right now, and a 200/300 point contract at VGF is going to be priced around 179-186pp after incentives. is this "upgrade" to your membership worth approx. $20-25 per point (I dont know how big the contract your selling is).

We have 175 points at Poly. We do like the resort and I think I will be able to get in at 7 month mark for the dates we travel. Do you think it will be easier to get a studio at VGF at the 7 month mark?

 

[hhisc16]

We have 175 points at Poly. We do like the resort and I think I will be able to get in at 7 month mark for the dates we travel. Do you think it will be easier to get a studio at VGF at the 7 month mark?

With that many new resort studios at VGF, it should be easier to get a resort studio than a deluxe studio at VGF after it opens to all members for booking.

 

[stwaldman]

We have 175 points at Poly. We do like the resort and I think I will be able to get in at 7 month mark for the dates we travel. Do you think it will be easier to get a studio at VGF at the 7 month mark?

well, it can't get harder than it currently is to get a VGF studio, especially standard view.

I think depending on time of year for travel, it has to be at least a little easier. December and other popular DVC travel times (marathon, parties, etc.) are still going to suck if you don't have the 11 month booking window. These are all the times where "location location location" matters and the people who bought for that location generally want to use it. Plus there's still the issue of a lot of covid points stuck in the system (*waves at our friends in canada*)

It probably depends a bit too if room type/level matters to you. If you care about "deluxe studios" vs. "resort studios", 7 mos may not leave you an option. you probably will also see the usual situation where standard view rooms fly off the shelf before lake views. These are all the same considerations other resorts deal with, and since you own at poly, you're probably plenty aware of the issue of other resort owners trying to fly in and snag available rooms at 7 mos. It probably just depends on your appetite for that fun.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I think resale will face some slight downward pressure, but I think it’s short term. Judging by the brisk sales for VGF2, I think the direct price will be going up relatively soon.

 

[SleeplessInTO]

*Canadian waves back*
Don't worry, we're all traveling with a vengeance... a very apologetic vengeance, but vengeance all the same! At the dawn of March break, we land!

 

[stlrod]

I was actually thinking about this issue earlier today. My guess is that there will be at least some short term effect for BLT, Poly and perhaps CCV in addition to VGF. We will have to wait to see how fast direct prices go up. I think there are many who are considering what you are doing, including me. In fact, I just listed my 100 point VGF contract today with a plan of buying 300 direct.

 

[RoseGold]

I think anyone who doesn't have to sell right now is waiting to see if there's a giant price hike at the end of the month.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I was actually thinking about this issue earlier today. My guess is that there will be at least some short term effect for BLT, Poly and perhaps CCV in addition to VGF. We will have to wait to see how fast direct prices go up. I think there are many who are considering what you are doing, including me. In fact, I just listed my 100 point VGF contract today with a plan of buying 300 direct.

I don’t think CCV will be affected.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I think anyone who doesn't have to sell right now is waiting to see if there's a giant price hike at the end of the month.

Good point. And we have three weeks to debate the price increase!

 

[DontTalkAboutDues NoNoNo]

Do you think the low prices for VGF2 will affect resale for the monorail resorts? Thinking of unloading a poly contract and picking up 200-300 VGF2 points. I love VGF and this would make me a blue card (not that it matter to much) and My home resort, but VGF resale was always a bit too pricey for me so we never bought.

My opinion... It has the most dramatic impact on VGF resale (already seeing to a degree). Pricing will start climbing as we get through the initial promotion period for March and we will see VGF resale tic up a little as direct pricing does. Resale VGF ran about $20-30pp higher than BLT or Poly. I'd guess BLT and Poly take a slight dip in the $150-$160 range but will probably climb back to the $160-$170 range in a few months once the VGF incentives lessen.

 

[stlrod]

This should help ease everyone's minds--I just sold 100 points at VGF for $175 in 2 hours after the listing was posted!!!

 

[DontTalkAboutDues NoNoNo]

This should help ease everyone's minds--I just sold 100 points at VGC for $175 in 2 hours after the listing was posted!!!

Hope you meant VGF and not VGC ...otherwise, I can see why someone snatched Grand Cal up at $175

 

[stlrod]

Hope you meant VGF and not VGC ...otherwise, I can see why someone snatched Grand Cal up at $175

Yes, corrected now. Constant wishful thinking I had VGC got in the way.