Marathon Weekend 2016

[LSUlakes]

I think it will be a very exciting moment when we see a sub-2:00 marathon. I don't expect to see it for another 10 years (pray I'm wrong). I'll even predict it will happen in Berlin, since that course is favorable for breaking records.

I read an article regarding what it would take to run a sub-2:00 marathon and once subtopic focused on the mental aspect of running. It revealed that some of the top runners came from poor and/or many hardships early in life and that transferred into mental toughness for running. They also predicted that everything being physically even, the mental toughness would be the deciding factor for running a sub-2:00 marathon.

Rather interesting as I've never looked at it through those eyes.

We are a long way to getting below 2 hours in a marathon. This isn't even close to how people felt about a sub 4 minute mile before that record was broken. At the speeds these guys are running, taking an addition 2:57 off to get to two hours is no small task. They need to shave 6.76 seconds per mile, which for that distance and pace is a big jump. Im not saying it isn't going to happen, but I think its going to take closer to 20-30 years before it does.

 

[opusone]

We are a long way to getting below 2 hours in a marathon. This isn't even close to how people felt about a sub 4 minute mile before that record was broken. At the speeds these guys are running, taking an addition 2:57 off to get to two hours is no small task. They need to shave 6.76 seconds per mile, which for that distance and pace is a big jump. Im not saying it isn't going to happen, but I think its going to take closer to 20-30 years before it does.

You piqued my curiosity, and my inner geek took over. I copied the world record marathon times from Wikipedia and charted them. Since 1967, the marathon world records have been somewhat linear over time, so I created a best-fit line since 1967, and based on that best-fit line, it would be about August 2037 before we might see a 2:00 marathon. So, your guess of 20-30 years seems right in line (no pun intended). See the chart below.

BTW, you will notice that there are years where the world record seems to increase over time. If you read the Wikipedia notes, that is due to (i) different governing bodies recognizing different world records, and (ii) a few disputed results.

 

[DopeyBadger]

You piqued my curiosity, and my inner geek took over. I copied the world record marathon times from Wikipedia and charted them. Since 1967, the marathon world records have been somewhat linear over time, so I created a best-fit line since 1967, and based on that best-fit line, it would be about August 2037 before we might see a 2:00 marathon. So, your guess of 20-30 years seems right in line (no pun intended). See the chart below.

BTW, you will notice that there are years where the world record seems to increase over time. If you read the Wikipedia notes, that is due to (i) different governing bodies recognizing different world records, and (ii) a few disputed results.

View attachment 132861

Very interesting! What's the R-squared on the line of best fit? Does it change dramatically if you only use since Oct 1995? Let's mark today down as the prediction date and see how close we get! See you guys in 2037 (we'll all be planning on running the ??? 5K, 24th 10K, 40th Half, 44th Marathon, 32nd Goofy, or 24th Dopey!). Whoo Hoo!

 

[LSUlakes]

Very interesting! What's the R-squared on the line of best fit? Does it change dramatically if you only use since Oct 1995? Let's mark today down as the prediction date and see how close we get! See you guys in 2037 (we'll all be planning on running the ??? 5K, 24th 10K, 40th Half, 44th Marathon, 32nd Goofy, or 24th Dopey!). Whoo Hoo!

By that time my BQ standard will be a 3:15! A whole extra 10 minutes.

 

[opusone]

Very interesting! What's the R-squared on the line of best fit? Does it change dramatically if you only use since Oct 1995? Let's mark today down as the prediction date and see how close we get! See you guys in 2037 (we'll all be planning on running the ??? 5K, 24th 10K, 40th Half, 44th Marathon, 32nd Goofy, or 24th Dopey!). Whoo Hoo!

R-squared is 0.976 since 1967, 0.981 since 1998. Pretty darn good in both cases and not too different. BTW, Aug 30, 2037 is a Sunday, so definitely a possible race day.

 

[margitmouse]

Hey gang, can someone tell me quick the site everyone looks at for watch reviews?
Sorry to zig the conversation!

 

[FFigawi]

http://www.dcrainmaker.com

 

[SarahDisney]

I have to say, even though most of it is going way over my head, I love all of the discussions going on here about timing and statistics and scientific stuff. I love me a good Excel spreadsheet and/or scientific article, and I'm sure that if I had the patience to actually read through everything, I'd be really excited about what's being said.

Now that I've said that ... on an entirely different topic, does anyone know if there will be someone selling discounted race nutrition at the expo? When I was at the marathon expo last week, Jack Rabbit (local running store) was selling gels and waffles for $1 (usual price is $1.50, I think) and something else for $2. It made me a little annoyed that I had just stocked up on gels a few days before. So if I can get my nutrition at a discount at the expo, that's a lot easier than running out to the store a few days before the trip to make sure I have everything I need. So ... has there been a place to buy discounted race nutrition in the past?
Yes, I know, they're not guaranteed to have whatever I use. I will likely bring some stuff just in case, but since my current primary run fuel is a Clif product and Clif is a big runDisney sponsor, I'm guessing that I'll be able to get it at the expo, I just don't know if it will be regular price or cheaper.

 

[LSUlakes]

I have to say, even though most of it is going way over my head, I love all of the discussions going on here about timing and statistics and scientific stuff. I love me a good Excel spreadsheet and/or scientific article, and I'm sure that if I had the patience to actually read through everything, I'd be really excited about what's being said.

Now that I've said that ... on an entirely different topic, does anyone know if there will be someone selling discounted race nutrition at the expo? When I was at the marathon expo last week, Jack Rabbit (local running store) was selling gels and waffles for $1 (usual price is $1.50, I think) and something else for $2. It made me a little annoyed that I had just stocked up on gels a few days before. So if I can get my nutrition at a discount at the expo, that's a lot easier than running out to the store a few days before the trip to make sure I have everything I need. So ... has there been a place to buy discounted race nutrition in the past?
Yes, I know, they're not guaranteed to have whatever I use. I will likely bring some stuff just in case, but since my current primary run fuel is a Clif product and Clif is a big runDisney sponsor, I'm guessing that I'll be able to get it at the expo, I just don't know if it will be regular price or cheaper.

To answer your question, usually most items are discounted at the expo. Not all but most are. Having said that, I would bring with you whatever you have been training with to avoid being put into the situation of trying something new on race day. If you have to fly, place whatever items you have in a Ziploc bag just incase they don't make it, but pack extras. Now if you want to stock up at the expo and they have the items you normally use or something new that you want to try for your next race at a current discounted price, then go for it. Plan everything based off the #1 rule for race day "Do not try anything new... ever... except if its the first time running 13.1, 26.2, ect. That's the only exception to the rule".

At the Boston Marathon expo, GU had a booth, I have never seen so much GU in my life and so many different flavors.

 

[SarahDisney]

To answer your question, usually most items are discounted at the expo. Not all but most are. Having said that, I would bring with you whatever you have been training with to avoid being put into the situation of trying something new on race day. If you have to fly, place whatever items you have in a Ziploc bag just incase they don't make it, but pack extras. Now if you want to stock up at the expo and they have the items you normally use or something new that you want to try for your next race at a current discounted price, then go for it. Plan everything based off the #1 rule for race day "Do not try anything new... ever... except if its the first time running 13.1, 26.2, ect. That's the only exception to the rule".

Thanks.
I know I'll be okay even if I can't get anything at the expo (I've made it through 6+ mile runs on Ritz crackers and assorted Jelly Bellys, both of which I know I can get at Disney, so if I don't bring something and can't get it at the expo, I'll use those), but I'm still planning to bring as much as I can, suitcase/carry-on space permitting. I just know that I will likely run out of my Clif Shot Gels before January, so if I can get them for cheap at the expo, it saves me from having to schlep out to the running store before I leave.

 

[Kathymford]

I know at the DL expos the Clif Shot booth is giant with lots of flavors to try and the long lines to match!

 

[DopeyBadger]

R-squared is 0.976 since 1967, 0.981 since 1998. Pretty darn good in both cases and not too different. BTW, Aug 30, 2037 is a Sunday, so definitely a possible race day.

Wow, that is a really high R-squared for something that wouldn't seem to be so linearly related. Well then I will mark my calendar for that date then.

 

[derekleigh]

We are a long way to getting below 2 hours in a marathon. This isn't even close to how people felt about a sub 4 minute mile before that record was broken. At the speeds these guys are running, taking an addition 2:57 off to get to two hours is no small task. They need to shave 6.76 seconds per mile, which for that distance and pace is a big jump. Im not saying it isn't going to happen, but I think its going to take closer to 20-30 years before it does.

I don't know. Looking at the graph (thank you @opusone ), from 1995 onward, it would be a steeper linear progression that would bring the estimated record date back into the mid- to late- 2020s.

 

[opusone]

I don't know. Looking at the graph (thank you @opusone), from 1995 onward, it would be a steeper linear progression that would bring the estimated record date back into the mid- to late- 2020s.

If you just used the world records after 1995 (really 1998 onwards), the best-fit line would derive a date of January 27, 2031, so a little more than 15 years from now.

 

[kevdad]

I read an article regarding what it would take to run a sub-2:00 marathon and once subtopic focused on the mental aspect of running. It revealed that some of the top runners came from poor and/or many hardships early in life and that transferred into mental toughness for running. They also predicted that everything being physically even, the mental toughness would be the deciding factor for running a sub-2:00 marathon.

Rather interesting as I've never looked at it through those eyes.

That is really a great point because it's hard to imagine that much future improvement could come from better training, nutrition or equipment which pretty much leaves evolution and mental toughness and drive to shave off another few minutes.

 

[Optimator]

So ... has there been a place to buy discounted race nutrition in the past?

Have you tried Runningwarehouse.com? They currently have Clif Shot gels at $25.95 for 24.

We use to have WISH discount code but I can't remember what it is or even know if it is still valid but it is easy enough to google a code. I got a 10% off on the first try. That's less than a buck each.

 

[derekleigh]

If you just used the world records after 1995 (really 1998 onwards), the best-fit line would derive a date of January 27, 2031, so a little more than 15 years from now.

Ah, thank you. I was just eyeballing it and didn't have my ruler.

I do think 15 years is a better approximation as to when we will see a sub-2:00 marathon sans doping. You had better believe whomever does hit that sub-2:00, they'll have every kind of test done one them!

 

[Z-Knight]

My October, finally figured out how to get totals from garmin.

Mileage - 160.38 miles
Time - 21:51 hrs
Avg Pace - 8:10 min/mile

Although that is on treadmill and likely getting 5% over estimate from my garmin, so more accurate distance and pace would be 150 miles, 8:36 pace.

I'm currently at the halfway point of the training plan, but I started it 2 weeks too early and so I will have to add a couple of weeks before, or during, the taper period to get me lined up with the Dopey.

I'm also having to revise my goals from a sub 3:45 (my training plan) to sub 4:15 because the plan is now starting to get hard. I can meet all of the fast pace midweek runs but the long runs are not going so well...I'm actually doing them wrong, or I was. I've been running them at near goal pace and end up walking a lot...like 20 minutes of a 14 mile run, for example. This week is an 18 miler and I'll try the slower pace (9:30 min/mile) but I expect to have to walk even some of that. Sigh...I suck at this right now.

 

[LSUlakes]

My October, finally figured out how to get totals from garmin.

Mileage - 160.38 miles
Time - 21:51 hrs
Avg Pace - 8:10 min/mile

Although that is on treadmill and likely getting 5% over estimate from my garmin, so more accurate distance and pace would be 150 miles, 8:36 pace.

I'm currently at the halfway point of the training plan, but I started it 2 weeks too early and so I will have to add a couple of weeks before, or during, the taper period to get me lined up with the Dopey.

I'm also having to revise my goals from a sub 3:45 (my training plan) to sub 4:15 because the plan is now starting to get hard. I can meet all of the fast pace midweek runs but the long runs are not going so well...I'm actually doing them wrong, or I was. I've been running them at near goal pace and end up walking a lot...like 20 minutes of a 14 mile run, for example. This week is an 18 miler and I'll try the slower pace (9:30 min/mile) but I expect to have to walk even some of that. Sigh...I suck at this right now.

While I agree that running the entire long run a GMP is not a great idea, it isn't a bad idea to run the last few miles at that pace so you become accustomed to that pace while you are tired. Some of my long runs will have 8-12 miles a GMP, but that's not every weekend. When not running at GMP for the long runs I think the recommended pace is somewhere around 30 to 90 seconds slower than goal pace. Good luck with the upcoming 18 miler and just take your time. Its more mental than anything.

 

[opusone]

I can meet all of the fast pace midweek runs but the long runs are not going so well...I'm actually doing them wrong, or I was. I've been running them at near goal pace and end up walking a lot...like 20 minutes of a 14 mile run, for example. This week is an 18 miler and I'll try the slower pace (9:30 min/mile) but I expect to have to walk even some of that. Sigh...I suck at this right now.

Ouch... that would make for some painful (mentally and physically) long runs. I usually run my GMP runs the day before my long runs (maybe 4-6 miles at GMP). Then, my long runs are about 1 min/mi slower than my GMP, but my legs should be a little tired from the previous day's GMP run. Remember, your long runs are really to build up your heart muscle and to get continuous run time into your legs, neither of which require marathon pace. That being said, you should perform some runs at GMP just so your body gets to know the pace, but you don't need long distances for this.

@LSUlakes's approach works as well by running some, but not all, of the long run miles at GMP, but for me personally, I have found that I don't enjoy my long runs as much when I try this, so I have separate GMP runs.