NJBILL
Always Keep An Eye To The Sky
- Joined
- Jun 9, 2003
- Messages
- 1,311
XTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
141 PM EST THU DEC 16 2010
VALID 12Z SUN DEC 19 2010 - 12Z THU DEC 23 2010
...INCREASING THREAT OF MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM...
12Z GFS HAS SWITCHED BACK TO A DEEPER MUCH CLOSER IN LOW CLOSE TO
YTDAS 12Z GFS AND CURRENT 00Z ECMWF TAKING A 980 MB OFF CAPE COD.
THIS SCENARIO FOLLOWS YTDAS HPC PROGS AND THINKING AS MODELS BEGIN
TO CONVERGE ON A MORE AGREED UPON SOLUTION WITH GOOD HPC FORECAST
CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. 12Z UKMET NOW DEEPER AND A BIT FARTH
AT 40/70 WHILE ECMWF HAS ITS 975 MB LOW NEAR BLOCK ISLAND SOUND.
NAVY NOGAPS ALSO DEEP AND CLOSE IN TO CAPE COD. GFS ENS MEANS A
BIT EAST BUT MEAN PCPN SHOWING A SIG PCPN EVENT OVER COASTAL MA.
AFTN PROGS WILL ADJUST SLIGHTLY WEST HAVING A DEEP LOW NEAR THE
NORTHEAST BENCHMARK. MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THIS SOLUTION WITH
INCREASED FORECASTER CONFIDNECE.
THIS INCREASES THE THREAT OF A
SNOW EVENT ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST FROM EASTERN VA UP THE COAST
AND ESPECIALLY A HEAVY SNOW THREAT FOR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. SOME
ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT MADE FROM THIS MORNINGS PRELIMS
WITH AFTN UPDATED PROGS INCLUDING OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS AND 12Z CMC.
HIGH WIND AND SNOW THREAT NEW ENG COAST LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
Follow the storm at www.travelweather.weebly.com
click on Disney weather.
Good luck and have a safe trip to WDW.
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
141 PM EST THU DEC 16 2010
VALID 12Z SUN DEC 19 2010 - 12Z THU DEC 23 2010
...INCREASING THREAT OF MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM...
12Z GFS HAS SWITCHED BACK TO A DEEPER MUCH CLOSER IN LOW CLOSE TO
YTDAS 12Z GFS AND CURRENT 00Z ECMWF TAKING A 980 MB OFF CAPE COD.
THIS SCENARIO FOLLOWS YTDAS HPC PROGS AND THINKING AS MODELS BEGIN
TO CONVERGE ON A MORE AGREED UPON SOLUTION WITH GOOD HPC FORECAST
CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. 12Z UKMET NOW DEEPER AND A BIT FARTH
AT 40/70 WHILE ECMWF HAS ITS 975 MB LOW NEAR BLOCK ISLAND SOUND.
NAVY NOGAPS ALSO DEEP AND CLOSE IN TO CAPE COD. GFS ENS MEANS A
BIT EAST BUT MEAN PCPN SHOWING A SIG PCPN EVENT OVER COASTAL MA.
AFTN PROGS WILL ADJUST SLIGHTLY WEST HAVING A DEEP LOW NEAR THE
NORTHEAST BENCHMARK. MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THIS SOLUTION WITH
INCREASED FORECASTER CONFIDNECE.
THIS INCREASES THE THREAT OF A
SNOW EVENT ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST FROM EASTERN VA UP THE COAST
AND ESPECIALLY A HEAVY SNOW THREAT FOR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. SOME
ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT MADE FROM THIS MORNINGS PRELIMS
WITH AFTN UPDATED PROGS INCLUDING OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS AND 12Z CMC.
HIGH WIND AND SNOW THREAT NEW ENG COAST LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
Follow the storm at www.travelweather.weebly.com
click on Disney weather.
Good luck and have a safe trip to WDW.
