We have had higher than normal expenses this year (younger child had birth defect and had a couple surgeries this year, one that OOP would have be over 60K) and the HSA plan still worked better for us.
I never would have dreamt that would be the case, but compared to the money I was paying every month for premium, plus the MANY $20 copays that didn't go toward a deductible or OOP max (that's what KILLED us) the HSA worked well. We pay $100 for the premium and put $325 in HSA per month.
We ARE fortunate that Dh's employer does put some more money in the HSA. Even if this was all that was being contributed in a normal year with two healthy children it would more than cover typical expenses for our family-it has just been atypical the last few years.
I think if anyone has an HSA available it is worth running the numbers and seeing how much co-pays are adding up to. With our HSA once the deductible was met it even meant we were only paying 20% of prescriptions instead of having to buy them on a tiered system. Once we hit our OOP max, prescriptions are covered at 100%. So it can be good for people with LOTS of expenses too. It was certainly better for us than the PPO system was when we ran the numbers.