Looking for Predictions on DVC Resorts between LSL and 2042

[RWeThereYetJJ]

Please give me your predictions to the below questions.

1) How many years do you think it will take for Lakeshore Lodge (LSL) to sell out once it goes on sale?
2) How many other resorts do you think DVC will construct at DW after LSL but before 2042?
3) Where do you think additional resorts will be built? Will there be another Epcot resort between now and 2042?

 

[Mouseforward]

1. 5 years if at least 600 rooms are DVC
2. None, I think MK has plenty of DVC once LSL goes live
3. I think we will see a RIV 2 , and then BWI will close and we will have the rear buildings torn down and a DVC tower built for BW 2

 

[muppets3d]

It definitely seems like Disney has primed Boardwalk for a "reimagining" after closing Jellyrolls and building that $35 a slice cake shop, etc.

 

[Mouseforward]

It definitely seems like Disney has primed Boardwalk for a "reimagining" after closing Jellyrolls and building that $35 a slice cake shop, etc.

hey now, its only 30 unless you buy the bag

One thing I will say is the cake was better the second time I went, did not have a frozen taste.

 

[muppets3d]

hey now, its only 30 unless you buy the bag

One thing I will say is the cake was better the second time I went, did not have a frozen taste.

There's no way on God's green earth I would have gone back to a place that charged me $30 for frostburned cake.

 

[muppets3d]

I don't know that we will see new construction again for a while, but who knows. I think they'll just keep converting existing buildings to DVC and selling those as new resorts.

 

[Mouseforward]

There's no way on God's green earth I would have gone back to a place that charged me $30 for frostburned cake.

If I was not traveling with my niece it would not have happened. There was no avoiding it and it was not just once that week.

 

[muppets3d]

If I was not traveling with my niece it would not have happened. There was no avoiding it and it was not just once that week.

I'm just saying, if they served me frostburned cake at that price the only reason I would have gone back would be to demand a refund.

 

[Girlstar30]

I just started a thread and my guess is Cotino and I have no idea about the rest

 

[Disney Spaz]

1) I say the jury is still out about it pulling in the cabins at FT Wilderness. DH and I went to Crockets Tavern and LSL is almost on top of that building. It is closer than the Poly Tower and VGF original building. And they are putting the A frame cabins right in front of the Crockets Tavern Building. I say all this to say if it pulls in the FT WIlderness Cabins I think it will take twice as long to sell out. My guess the same length of time it took for SSR to sell out.
2) My guess is that they will tackle the Epcot Crescent Lake area. They need to have points beyond Rivera to access Epcot. I am thinking an addition on BWV like CCR was for WL. Beyond that I am not sure. I think they expect all the additions they are investing in will get the financial returns in people wanting to stay on property so demand will increase but not until those additions at AK and MK are done.
3)See answer 2 regarding BWV.

 

[Genie+]

1) How many years do you think it will take for Lakeshore Lodge (LSL) to sell out once it goes on sale?

It depends how many points. Phase 2 of VGF was around 2 million points, while Poly Tower is closer to 4 million. Riviera is 6.7 million points. I’ve heard LSL will be mixed use meaning some of the room inventory will not be sold as DVC. If LSL is around 3 million points I doubt it will sell out before 2030.

2) How many other resorts do you think DVC will construct at DW after LSL but before 2042?

I’m guessing at least 2 more will come between LSL and 2037. I’m also guessing within 3 to 10 years from now we will see DVC open Point Washing, where you can pay to have your resale points fully qualify like direct points, and it won’t be cheap!

3) Where do you think additional resorts will be built? Will there be another Epcot resort between now and 2042?

Yes, I think it’s highly likely we’ll see either a project behind Beach Club with access to the front of EP, or something at YC… or something else by EP within the next 5-10 years.

And possibly something north of Grand Floridian with a gate into Magic Kingdom?

If DVC does end up adding EP &/or MK resort with a gate into the park like Grand Californian, I think that might involve a newer type of DVC direct sales - the Trust model. Maybe like a 30% possibility?

 

[muppets3d]

If the new normal is 5+ years to sell out a medium sized resort like Riviera, do we even need new resorts built every 3 or so years?

 

[stat]

If the new normal is 5+ years to sell out a medium sized resort like Riviera, do we even need new resorts built every 3 or so years?

If they want 3-4 resorts selling concurrently, they'd actually need to build faster than that. But with some very long-tailed resorts (CFW, AUL) then they can go a bit slower.

 

[SugarSweetLee]

Riviera is 6.7 million points. I’ve heard LSL will be mixed use meaning some of the room inventory will not be sold as DVC. If LSL is around 3 million points I doubt it will sell out before 2030.

Riviera has 300 rooms. LSL is supposed to have around 900? I'd guess LSL will have a lot more than 3 million points to move, even if mixed use.

 

[Genie+]

Riviera has 300 rooms. LSL is supposed to have around 900? I'd guess LSL will have a lot more than 3 million points to move, even if mixed use.

Oh wow, that’s alot of rooms! Plus it’s likely to have some very high point cost categories, like Poly Bungalow/Penthouse and Copper Creek Cabins.

Makes me wonder what direction they’ll go with Duo Studios. Will it be a higher ratio than we’ve seen with RIV, VDH, and Poly Tower? And will this project be the first to add them to permanent deluxe cash inventory?

 

[Genie+]

I’m not sure how accurate… AI came back with :

Total DVC points sold direct

2022 2 million
2023 2.3 million
2024 2 million

 

[Headless]

I think there next step should be in the direction similar to the cabins and go below the deluxe line. Every new resort has been at the deluxe level lately and I think its time to capitalize on the moderates. Build another larger moderate resort and mix in DVC and non. Maybe put a 'premium offering' (like the bungalows, the tree houses and the like) along the edge of the resort property as an extra.

I'd be willing to bet some families who have turned down DVC up until now would be more willing to bite on a moderate level and having more moderate offerings will I think net more stay's in general and would probably sell well. I also want to see them have fun with the theming, something that screams Disney and gets people excited to stay there.

 

[SugarSweetLee]

Oh wow, that’s alot of rooms! Plus it’s likely to have some very high point cost categories, like Poly Bungalow/Penthouse and Copper Creek Cabins.

Yes, there are some waterfront A-frame cabins being built already. The site is absolutely huge when you look at recent aerial photos of construction.

 

[CraigInPA]

Please give me your predictions to the below questions.

1) How many years do you think it will take for Lakeshore Lodge (LSL) to sell out once it goes on sale?

If past history is to be followed, no less than five years.

2) How many other resorts do you think DVC will construct at DW after LSL but before 2042?

I expect there will be another two resorts before 2036 (one in 2028 and one in 2033) or perhaps multiple waves of conversions from cash rooms to DVC at various resorts. Once we hit 2042, all that inventory can be again resold, so they're going to want to have few actively sold resorts at the end of 2031.

3) Where do you think additional resorts will be built? Will there be another Epcot resort between now and 2042?

An excellent question. Where do you expect the fifth gate?

 

[Genie+]

An excellent question. Where do you expect the fifth gate?

Another excellent question lol.

I’ve kinda resigned myself to the idea a fifth gate won’t come in time for me to enjoy it. More likely only see the other 4 parks expanded. I would love to see a 5th gate though! And a skyliner expansion.