Looking for an opinion Re: the dollar

[mousy_in_canada]

It just keeps going up and up... YEA! My question is.. I have been paying for the room whenever I have an extra $100 around, I phone Disney and send it to them.. I have $400.00 left on my room! My question is, should I hold off and wait for an all time high? (or higher in this case) or keep doing what I am doing?
as of 8:15 XE.com says this "100.00 CAD Canada Dollars= 81.8497 USD"
What do you think? My personal feeling is that it is high because of their elections, and it will not stay this high, but I am not an expert..

 

[Scratch42]

It will all depend on who wins the Election next Tuesday!

So, to play it safe, do what you have been doing, at least that is what I would do.

Scratch

 

[spewey]

While I'm sure the election will play a role (especially long-term), interest rates are a very important factor. Simply put, higher interest rates in a country make it more appealing for investors to buy that currency. The skinny is the Bank of Canada is eyeing another rate increase (to stave off any potential rise in inflation), which has had speculators buying up our dollars.

Of course, most of our dollar's gain in the past 18 months has not been attributable to actual strengthening, but instead in comparison to the weakening U.S. greenback, which has fallen in value worldwide in response to the perception of the international business community that the Bush administration has woefully mishandled the economy ...

 

[totalia]

Phew. I wouldn't hold off. The dollar could crash any day. It's already extremely high and not that trustworthy.

Pay it off. I don't think you will get much better than it is now.

 

[mom_rules]

On tonights news economist predict .90 by year's end.

Having said that, its the best it has been since 1992-I bought at 1.23 today.

 

[spewey]

$.90? Geez, I hope not - and my gut says unlikely. With every increase jobs are lost, and I gotta believe if our dollar keeps going up the Bank of Canada will have to seriously consider action, such as cutting interest rates, to bring it back down a bit. 'Course, a renewed trust in the direction of the American economy (cough Bush out cough) would take care of that ...

 

[mousy_in_canada]

90 cents!!! WOW.. my that is great for this, but I sell on ebay and I am missing the days of the 60 cent dollar.. but since I am planning this big trip it is nice to see the higher dollar!

My sister who works at the Royal Bank said that she will exchange all my money for me at a better rate then the public rate so that is great! every bit counts!

 

[MaMudduck]

Not to be too political but if Bush is re-elected the U.S. dollar will same the same or go up (meaning we'll pay more to exchange from cdn to us) If Kerry gets in it will go lower...Wall Street prefers a Repub. government (according to CNBC news)

But as spewey said it's the interest rates in either country that really makes the difference. Bank of Canada will most likely raise rates just IMHO. So far the US is holding off until Dec. to increase their rates (if they do at all)

I, myself, personally would pay it off now or maybe just half of it if you can handle the waiting to see what will happen.

 

[lmk]

Hmm never thought of paying off my hotel room early just in case the dollar goes down. Just wondering though, can you still get a refund for rooms you've paid for if you have to cancel?? My brother is ill with cancer so we may have to cancel our trip suddenly. I don't really want to lose the money we've paid into the rooms. The other option I've thought of is buying travellers cheques in US funds and paying for the room that way. Anyone used travellers cheques to pay for a hotel room before?

 

[spewey]

Not to make this a debate about economics, but ... yes, Wall Street may *in general* prefer a Republican administration, but certainly that has not been the case the past few years. Remember, the greatest performance in the Street's history - by a wide margin - occured during the Clinton years. Along with record surpluses, full employment, low interest rates, and a rock-solid greenback.

More importantly, the Street and the greenback are not related. In fact, they are usually contrapuntal. In other words, low interest rates help stocks, hurt currency; high interest rates hurt stocks (help bonds), and help currency. The anomaly of the Clinton years was the "triple threat" economy - low rates, unemployment, but stock gains - along with a strong dollar. Now, I do feel our dollar will not hit $ .90, but not because Bush may get re-elected (and I predict he will, easily). Why would anyone think that? It has crumbled - along with many sectors of the economy - under his watch.

Which leads me to an inevitable conclusion - the history of the economies in modern industrialized democracies favour conservative stewardship. Racking up huge deficits, while spending money like a drunken sailor - the Bush doctrine - is the opposite of conservative (of course, so is an imperialistic foreign policy, but that's another story). As a libertarian/deeply fiscal conservative, the fact that Bush is perceived as being conservative is insulting to me. It is my opinion that the Republican party and actual conservatives have never been farther apart ...

 

[lilsonicfan]

90 cents? Really? Hmm.... that's a new one. I've gotta start trading in some of my money. I must say, I love these boards for the wealth of information, both disney and non-disney.

 

[iluvflorida]

Folks get real. Even if the dollar goes up another 5 cents that is $20.00 on $400. Does this make or break a WDW holiday.
If so you can't afford to go.

 

[lilsonicfan]

Wow, that's a little snarky! So it won't make or break a holiday. But $20 in the hand beats a swift kick in the pants, I say.

 

[chico]

iluv florida -

Since May the dollar has increased in value from $0.72 to $0.82. that's a 14% increase. Sure that doesn't make or break a Disney vacation, but it does make a difference - I don't know about you but I'd take that in my investments any day.

if it gets to $0.90, that'll make a 25% increase... Save 25% on a Disney trip? That DOES make or break a Disney vacation.

C'mon, if you're in a position where a 25% savings doesn't make a difference to you - congratulations!! You're doing very well, and more power to you. For the majority of us however, watching the dollar go up is a pleasant bonus for our upcoming trips, and one we enjoy sharing with our fellow friends here.

I'll take your $20 on $400 or $200 on $4000 if you don't want it - it'll buy me a few more Mickey ice creams...

 

[iluvflorida]

I am only responding to the original question re. should I hold off or pay the $400. I am glad the $ is going up. It will make my annual 7 weeks in Florida cheaper. All I am saying is that it is not life or death if Mousy pays now or later. It is only $20 on the balance she owes and that is IF it goes up another 5 cents which I doubt before end of year.

 

[spewey]

Ahhh, not to rain on anyone's parade - but what the heck ... Remember, every rise in our dollar puts the jobs of honest, hard-working Canadians in jeopardy. I hope it levels out before real damage is done to our economy ...

 

[mousy_in_canada]

Folks get real. Even if the dollar goes up another 5 cents that is $20.00 on $400. Does this make or break a WDW holiday.

I am sorry but this sounds a little rude to me, I have not said I will not go if the dollar goes up or down more I am simply saying that I want the best deal for my buck, Every little bit counts and this is something to me. I try to be an informed consumer and this is extra in my pocket so I will take it

I am only responding to the original question re. should I hold off or pay the $400. I am glad the $ is going up. It will make my annual 7 weeks in Florida cheaper. All I am saying is that it is not life or death if Mousy pays now or later. It is only $20 on the balance she owes and that is IF it goes up another 5 cents which I doubt before end of year.

I am not saying it is life or death nor are the responses indicating that it is, I am simply asking for an opinion.

I was a bit offended by the way you answered it but you are entitled to your opinions just as we are for ours. In retrospect I am sure that you did not mean the way that it came out, many times on boards or email things do not come across the way the writer means for it to be said. I am sure that is the case here. I am sorry I if sound rude here as well, but I felt I needed to defend myself in this respect. Thanks for listening.

 

[mississaugamom]

I agree with you, Mousy. Your strategy of paying as the $ performs well is a good one. I just sent Disney $1,000 towards my August cruise when the $ closed over 81 cents. I also bought all my travellers cheques for the trip when the $ hit .79! It wasn't that long ago we had a .63 cent dollar! Your idea of just buying travellers' cheques is a good one. We paid for our hotel room at Disney last time with travellers' cheques when we arrived. No problems!

Although some think it's "only" $20, heck - that translates into 8 Mickey-Ears Ice Cream Bars for my family to enjoy. I'd rather that than lose it to the banks in "conversion rates".

Good question - thanks for asking it!

Arlene

 

[Quadman]

Seems this discussion has migrated into a High dollar YAY, or NAY discussion

I own a small business in Canada.....All of our sales are made in the US, all of our purchases come from Asia and are paid for in US Dollars. If things stay the way they are next year we stand to loose about 80,000 CDN in exchange value that otherwise in other years would have been there. This does not refelect a large business, we do about 500,000 in sales a year, so a drop of 20% over the last 3 years represent a WHOP of disney vacations lost for our family, but also much more importnatly means a loss of at least one position this year.

So..... Bring the old dollar back ASAP.......

 

[iluvflorida]

Sorry Mousy and others if my reply seemed rude to you. That was not my intent. I was simply trying to express my opinion. As I said I am as glad as anyone that travels to US from Can. and does not have to do business with any country that deals in US.

I keep a US funds bank account in Can. so also buy US $ for annual trip over the year. I hope it goes high so that our $ is worth more than US. I am old enough to remember those days.

By the way where do you go in Florida. I see by the counter we will be there nearly same time. We are at Cypress Pointe than Vistana Resort for first while of our 7 weeks this year.