Locals.. what does 40% chance of rain REALLY mean?

[Mom2micayla]

Man I swear this checking the weather is driving me up a freaking wall. We leave in 3 days. We'll be at DLR from Sun-Thurs. Sun & Thurs. will be 1/2 days in the resort for us I think (definitely Sunday). So our for sure full days are M-W. As it stands right now it's a 30% chance of rain Mon. and a 40% Tues. & Wed. I am so bummed about this b/c we got rained on the last 2 times we were there (Feb '05 & Oct '05).

So obviously I know the % will likely change frequently between now and then, but what does 30%/40% chance really mean in Anaheim? In Tucson a 40% chance generally equates to no rain. I'm hoping it's the same there.

 

[Az Pirates]

We were there over Presidents Day weekend and I was really excited that there was a 60% chance of rain at least one day we were planning on being at the parks. (I would much rather deal with rain than crowds at DL)
Not a drop that day. Clear skies, beautiful weather and HUGE crowds.

Good luck to you... I hope you have a great trip.

 

[GreatDane]

The usual pattern, 40% chance, means it's not going to rain, and if is does it would be a very slight drizzle. We get so worked up here about any chance of rain. It's like we are suffering through a natural disaster. All the local channels go to news of "STORM WATCH 2006 !!!"

 

[Luvmy2Js]

I was wondering the same thing about what the percentage means. I live in the central valley area and, unfortunately our weather people are calling for rain for sure Monday and Tuesday. I am hoping the storm does not continue the four hour trip south to hit us in Disneyland.

 

[kkmcan]

I have mixed feelings about the weather right now. We leave Sunday from Tucson also but we are doing Sea World Monday and Wild Animal Park Tues. Disneyland Wed, Thurs and Fri.

I think it wouldn't be too bad with a little rain while at Disney but I don't know how easy it would be to do Sea World in the rain.

I just keep checking the weather and hope it changes a little or hopefully just drizzle and not a full out storm.

BTW, next Saturday March 4th shows thunderstorms! We will be doing Knotts that day before we head home on Sun. That will be such a bummer if we end up having to just sit it out in the hotel room as we've never done Knotts before.

Kelly

 

[Luvmy2Js]

I have done Sea World and the San Diego Zoo before with drizzle. Not bad at all for either attraction. Most of the attractions are shows so it just didn't seem to be as big of a deal. We played in the play area, ate lunch, and did the aquarium attraction while it rained. The zoo we just ate during the light rain and then it was fine.

That sucks about saturday. We will still be in San Diego but by then we will just be visiting family. I had thought about trying to throw Legoland in there but sounds like I better cross that off our list. Hopefully this storm moves right through and we are all pleasantly surprised.

 

[Syn&Bri'sDaddy]

Wow, sounds like half of Arizona will be in SoCal this next week. lol We leave tonight!!

Zonies, I think I'm going to treat it like an AZ forecast -- if it rains, it'll rain on the other side of town. We'll probably pack the umbrellas, but I really don't foresee them being used. Then again, I did just wash the car. lol

Look for me, I'll be the guy suffering from an estrogen overdose (traveling with the wife, three daughters, and mother-in-law). lol

 

[Mom2micayla]

Arghhh! Now the forecast has changed again! It's showing 30% chance on Mon., 50% on Tues. and 20% on Wed. I don't know if that's better or worse. Eh, I'm sure it'll change 75x before Sunday.

Zonies, I think I'm going to treat it like an AZ forecast -- if it rains, it'll rain on the other side of town. We'll probably pack the umbrellas, but I really don't foresee them being used. Then again, I did just wash the car. lol

You washed the car?! Great, we're screwed for sure now. I think we're going to treat the weather the same too. Have a safe trip. We'll see you there I'm sure. I'll be the woman with 3 kids under age 4 that's about to have a nervous breakdown. :lol:

 

[Luvmy2Js]

Well if you are having a nervous breakdown I will be right there with you. Traveling with my husband at least but also with 2 little girls about to turn three, a BUSY 13 month old and my 6 week old nephew.

If you see us my 2 year old will be wearing a birthday button on Monday as we are celebrating her 3rd birthday while there that day. She turns 3 on the 1st of March.

Did you have to wash your car???? I mean the law of pyshics says you just made our chance of rain 100%.

 

[darph nader]

I agree about the car wash snafu. The trick is to look at the situatoin backwards.10% chance of rain means 90% chance it wont, Unless my wife washes her truck then it rains JUST enough to mess it up. According to weather service there has been no measurable rain in Tucson at the airport for about 100 days.One question, WHO the heck lives at the airport anyway?

 

[WatchinCaptKangaroo]

Repeat after me:

It's not raining in SoCal until there is wet stuff falling from the sky.

Rain cannot be predicted more than 30 seconds in advance.

Do not panic.

Weather reports for next week are not reliable.

Repeat 5 times.

 

[kkmcan]

I certainly don't live at the airport but I can tell you this. Wherever the huge storms are in the city, I'm always on the wrong side of town missing out! So maybe that's true in CA as well.

Also, you're right about tons of Arizonans being there the same time we are. It seems like everyone I talk to is heading over to Disneyland sometime in the next week! I don't think the crowds will be light at all unlike last year at this time.

Kelly

 

[kkmcan]

Thanks CaptKangaroo! I'm trying to not freak out here, too much. LOL

Kelly

 

[piecesNscraps]

We were there this past weekend (17th-21st). It rained on us in the park Friday night and continued overnight, Saturday morning it rained but was done early and was beautiful all day. Sunday morning while we waited for the gates to open we got drenched and hailed on but it was gone by 8:30. It rained just long enough for everyone to rush in and buy ponchos and never have to use them. The days were beautiful, sunny and warm.

 

[moniquem]

Don't feel so bad, I am going a few days after you and the weather forecast I am looking at says THUNDERSTORMS on Friday & Saturday!! I wanna see them darn fireworks!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Mom2micayla]

The local weather here (in Tucson) says that there is a big storm heading towards the entire west coast and it'll bring wide spread showers the beginning of next week. Figures! Of course that doesn't mean it'll rain in Anaheim, over Disneyland or all day long. It's so hard to know what'll happen. That's the worst part of it. You plan your vacation for so long and then you have no control over the weather. Stinks. The only positive I see to this is that maybe the chance of rain will keep people away and the parks won't be as crowded.