We recently went to NYC, and since it was our first trip there, we "sucked it up" and got tickets to see Newsies a couple of months in advance. We LOVED this show!!!
No regrets about the $$$ we spent. It was really important to us to have a specific show to see, plus we love great seats.
When we go back to NYC, we will certainly consider doing reduced -priced tickets, as if we get a chance to go back, it won't be as important to see a show. ( Our trip was a high school grad present for our DD). And if we go back-I feel like we could see one of many different shows. But for the trip we just came back from-we needed to see a show, and having tickets in advance worked for us.
So back to the OP: what happens if you do not get discounted tickets for Lion King? Are there other plays you would be interested in instead? What happens if you need to activate a back-up plan? And-the big question-would you be "ticked off at yourself forever" if you did not get to see Lion King?
FWIW- we have seen Lion King 2 times when it was touring through the Midwest, but in NYC we got to see the costuming exhibit for the LionKing which was amazing! The costuming is amazing. (The costuming exhibit closed in mid-December-and it was free!!! We did not consider Lion King because we have seen it already.