Let's speculate about Polynesian some more!

[skier_pete]

And folks, don't blow smoke about Disney being happy with Riviera's sales.

Yes, the resort has a lot of points, 6.7 million to be precise, but you really think that DVC is happy that 4.5 years after going on sale the resort is only at 57% sold, AND selling at a pace that will take another 5-7 years to sell out? A resort of that size was surely targeted to sell out in 5-7 years not 10-12. Let's even give them the benefit of the doubt of a year lost to COVID they is no way they are happy with Riviera. (Animal Kingdom, the closest similar resort and certainly not designed to be as "prime" sold out in only 7 years.)

Since Riviera went on sale DVC:
(A) Pulled the plug on another stand alone resort (Reflections)
(B) Went back to the safety of a known monorail resort not once but twice.

Disney has been focusing on VGF sales because they know that the Poly Tower's main competition won't be Riviera, but will be VGF, so they want it sold out before the Poly Tower. With VDH, Poly, and then the Wilderness cabins, Riviera will have reached the "afterthought" stage of Aulani.

I'm not saying resale restrictions are 100% or even 50% the reason for Riviera's poor sales, and certainly I'll take an argument that most buyers don't pay attention to resale. (I'll rebut with most but not all.)

But denying the poor sales does not benefit your arguments when it is so easily refuted.

 

[intamin]

Don’t really wanna spend that much time on this here since theres already a separate thread dedicated to talking about this but AKV has a similar amount of points and took 6.5 years from summer 2007 to January 2014 to sell out. Which is actually quite a good pace of nearly 90,000 per month. It’ll be interesting to see how long it takes for them to sell off RIV. Hopefully flash sale soon

 

[Hubalorian]

What would AKV price per point in 2007-14 be today? While pace may have been better at AKV, was the price the driving factor?

 

[intamin]

What would AKV price per point in 2007-14 be today? While pace may have been better at AKV, was the price the driving factor?

Apparently it was 101 dollars per point when it first opened sales which is equivalent to 149 today, so cheaper still by a good chunk but relatively close.

Assuming the same for RIV as AKV (I know, big assumption), March 2019 is when sales first started + 6.5 years = September 2025, add another year for COVID (which likely isn't enough compensation given the lingering effects of pandemic on economy) = September 2026 expected

It's sold 57% in 4.5 years = 12.7% per year, so 1/.127 = likely will take closer to 8 years = March 2027, my guess is closer to fall 2027. Sooner if they do a flash sale like they did for VGF. I don't think they are pushing as hard to sell it because the resort sells out with cash regardless unlike VGF where they were struggling to put people in those rooms on the cash side.

 

[Jwaire]

Apparently it was 101 dollars per point when it first opened sales which is equivalent to 149 today, so cheaper by a good chunk but relatively close

Before incentives.

 

[intamin]

Before incentives.

Oh good catch, even more reason for AKV to sell out faster LOL.

 

[Jwaire]

It all comes down to price, economic conditions and marketing.

Oh good catch, even more reason for AKV to sell out faster LOL.

$93 ($138 in today's dollars) per point for 100 points compared to $217. I couldn't find the higher levels.

 

[Minniemoo15]

I wonder if RIV gets harder to sell as it ages. Undoubtedly one of the biggest selling factors of RIV are the beautiful, modern rooms - more so than other resorts that have extensive theming/grounds/location going for them as well. As the rooms become older though, and newer resorts come online with even shinier rooms, does RIV struggle to capture buyers’ attention? One thing I have learned with DVC is that it doesn’t take too many years for the rooms to start looking worn and dated.

 

[Sandisw]

And folks, don't blow smoke about Disney being happy with Riviera's sales.

Yes, the resort has a lot of points, 6.7 million to be precise, but you really think that DVC is happy that 4.5 years after going on sale the resort is only at 57% sold, AND selling at a pace that will take another 5-7 years to sell out? A resort of that size was surely targeted to sell out in 5-7 years not 10-12. Let's even give them the benefit of the doubt of a year lost to COVID they is no way they are happy with Riviera. (Animal Kingdom, the closest similar resort and certainly not designed to be as "prime" sold out in only 7 years.)

Since Riviera went on sale DVC:
(A) Pulled the plug on another stand alone resort (Reflections)
(B) Went back to the safety of a known monorail resort not once but twice.

Disney has been focusing on VGF sales because they know that the Poly Tower's main competition won't be Riviera, but will be VGF, so they want it sold out before the Poly Tower. With VDH, Poly, and then the Wilderness cabins, Riviera will have reached the "afterthought" stage of Aulani.

I'm not saying resale restrictions are 100% or even 50% the reason for Riviera's poor sales, and certainly I'll take an argument that most buyers don't pay attention to resale. (I'll rebut with most but not all.)

But denying the poor sales does not benefit your arguments when it is so easily refuted.

Except the sales were starting to do very well prior to Covid and when it was cheaper in 2022 than VGF it outperformed that resort for 4 to 5 months, sometimes by more than 30k !

If restrictions were the sales killer that some beleive, why did that happen?

Why did DVD flip things to make VGF less expensive? And why haven’t they put in more aggressive incentives for RIV?

All of that tells me they are content enough with what has currently happened.

 

[kneely58]

Except the sales were starting to do very well prior to Covid and when it was cheaper in 2022 than VGF it outperformed that resort for 4 to 5 months, sometimes by more than 30k !

If restrictions was the sales killer that some beleive, why did that happen?

Why did DVD flip things to make VGF less expensive? And why haven’t they put in more aggressive incentives for RIV?

All of that tells me they are content enough with what has currently happened.

I think wanting to sell out VGF before Poly 2 sales start (right next door) played into it.

 

[tidefan]

I wonder if RIV gets harder to sell as it ages. Undoubtedly one of the biggest selling factors of RIV are the beautiful, modern rooms - moreso than other other resorts that have extensive theming/grounds/location going for them as well. As the rooms become more older though, and newer resorts come online with even shinier rooms, does RIV struggle to capture buyers’ attention? One thing I have learned with DVC is that it doesn’t take too many years for the rooms to start looking worn and dated.

I'll take this one further. I know that everyone loves to hate on SSR, but since the renovations, quite honestly the rooms there are every bit as nice as any others on property (I know, I'll be bashed for that), and for us, we actually prefer it to RIV. Let me explain why.

We are going a week in May (albeit to BLT, which is our favorite, but I just picked it for reference) and a standard SSR Studio was 90 points for the week and RIV standard was 116 (SSR Preferred was 99, RIV Preferred was 149). I know that things are very individualized, but for us, who drive every time we go, SSR is just as convenient as RIV. We can be at the EPCOT front gate in about 15 minutes as the drive is really short. Plus, I can park right in front of my unit at SSR, so that helps as well. One last thing to add, I think that the pool situation at SSR is really underrated. High Rock Springs, the Paddock pool, and the Grandstand pool are all wonderfully themed, and the quiet pool at Congress Park is great too (with a great view of Disney Springs). For me, I would rather save the extra 26 points and put them towards a stay at Aulani, or another WDW stay later in the year.

However, this is just us, and all of our situations differ. I know that there are many that love RIV and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that, but circling back to your point, the other resorts, especially the recently renovated ones, are every bit as nice. I don't know if many of you have been to SSR since the renovations, but it is like a completely different place. I haven't been to BRV since the recent renovations, but from the videos I've seen, I might could say the same for BRV as well.

 

[tidefan]

Except the sales were starting to do very well prior to Covid and when it was cheaper in 2022 than VGF it outperformed that resort for 4 to 5 months, sometimes by more than 30k !

If restrictions was the sales killer that some beleive, why did that happen?

Why did DVD flip things to make VGF less expensive? And why haven’t they put in more aggressive incentives for RIV?

All of that tells me they are content enough with what has currently happened.

It's because what they were selling at VGF was just hotel rooms...

 

[Nabas]

Don’t really wanna spend that much time on this here since theres already a separate thread dedicated to talking about this but AKV has a similar amount of points and took 6.5 years from summer 2007 to January 2014 to sell out. Which is actually quite a good pace of nearly 90,000 per month. It’ll be interesting to see how long it takes for them to sell off RIV. Hopefully flash sale soon

During the Great Recession, DVC direct and resales tanked.

RIV experienced a somewhat similar situation with Covid, but there’s no denying that VGF2 is selling well while RIV is not.

 

[Sandisw]

It's because what they were selling at VGF was just hotel rooms...

The point is that new buyers were able to overlook the restrictions, if they even cared, and still bought when the price is right and terms were right.

Of course, they were still just selling hotel rooms this year at VGF and yet, by bringing back MB and getting VGF down to the $160s, they were able to get buyers to overlook that piece.

No matter what, there are lots of reasons people choose the resorts they do, and while restrictions certainly play some role, but DVD has the power to get it sold and if they had wanted better sales, they would have made different choices with incentives in the past few years.

 

[Sandisw]

During the Great Recession, DVC direct and resales tanked.

RIV experienced a somewhat similar situation with Covid, but there’s no denying that VGF2 is selling well while RIV is not.

Sales numbers for VGF have been strong, but to be fair, they had to get the price down to $160s in order for it to take off…i

 

[Jwaire]

The point is that new buyers were able to overlook the restrictions, if they even cared, and still bought when the price is right and terms were right.

Of course, they were still just selling hotel rooms this year at VGF and yet, by bringing back MB and getting VGF down to the $160s, they were able to get buyers to overlook that piece.

No matter what, there are lots of reasons people choose the resorts they do, and while restrictions certainly play some role, but DVD has the power to get it sold and if they had wanted better sales, they would have made different choices with incentives in the past few years.

I agree. I think we're going to see this trend going forward. It's no longer about selling out as quickly as possible. They have an uphill climb with Discovery Tower, yet they don't seem to be worried. Maybe they learned it doesn't matter with Aulani?

I'd be very surprised if the Cabins at FW sell quickly. Talk about a limited audience with no other room type choices.

 

[Sandisw]

I agree. I think we're going to see this trend going forward. It's no longer about selling out as quickly as possible. They have an uphill climb with Discovery Tower, yet they don't seem to be worried. Maybe they learned it doesn't matter with Aulani?

I'd be very surprised if the Cabins at FW sell quickly. Talk about a limited audience with no other room type choices.

If we look at sales in total, they have done extremely well, even if two of the three didn’t do great.

It seems to me they are shifting the strategy to have more options for direct buyers vs. just one main one that is pushed…so far, in the last 6 months, it seems to be working.

Opening both FW cabins and Poly tower in the same year certainly seems like they don’t care how fast or slow something sells, as long as all are selling, not to mention the cash component.

My guess is both of those will have a good cash following as well, like RIV and AUL, and thus it very well could change the overall strategy for them.

 

[Jwaire]

It seems to me they are shifting the strategy to have more options for direct buyers vs. just one main one that is pushed…so far, in the last 6 months, it seems to be working.

Opening both FW cabins and Poly tower in the same year certainly seems like they don’t care how fast or slow something sells, as long as all are selling, not to mention the cash component.

I've wondered for a while if they aren't just relinquishing control of new "deluxe" resorts to DVC.

Lowers risk of attendance dips, faster recoup of costs to develop, buyers pay for maintenance and there are still years with inventory and breakage to sell for cash.

 

[skier_pete]

Except the sales were starting to do very well prior to Covid and when it was cheaper in 2022 than VGF it outperformed that resort for 4 to 5 months, sometimes by more than 30k !

If restrictions were the sales killer that some beleive, why did that happen?

Why did DVD flip things to make VGF less expensive? And why haven’t they put in more aggressive incentives for RIV?

All of that tells me they are content enough with what has currently happened.

Content enough = Resigned to

Seriously though - I was surprised that RIV outsold VGF at all, so I charted the data. There were actually a period in the second half of 2022 with RIV outsold VGF for 6 months, though two of those were within a few thousand points of each other. But yes, August - November of last year Riviera outsold VGF, and that was when incentives were such that RIV was running $12-20 less than VGF.

But look where VGF sales went compared to RIV when they did the same type of incentive for VGF. VGF sales in the 150,000 point range!

But most disturbing of all was looking at RIV sales pre VGF. Direct sales historically run about 120K-150K for new resorts. Without VGF in the mix, RIV was mostly squeaking by with 80K or less of sales. And since Jan of this year, the resort can't even sell 50,000 points a month. Even with those incentives last fall, they were pushing 85,000 in a good month.

So yes, Disney has changed the strategy. Riviera is old news, we're going to get VGF sold out in a hurry so when Poly comes on line it won't have competition right next door. And then we'll push Poly and the Fort cabins.

Face it, Riviera averaging 42,000 points a month in 2023 is abysmal numbers for a resort marketed as a new resort. Again, you want to argue that resale restrictions don't play a factor, I'll listen to that. You want to argue the resort is selling like they wanted it to? Nope, I don't buy it. Are you really telling me DVC is proud of the fast VGF will likely sell out in 2030, AFTER VGF, VDH, Poly2 and probably Fort Wilderness does?

 

[Hubalorian]

Or is Riveria doing very well on the cash side like Alunai historically has, so they just don’t care. Unlike VGF, who was converted to DVC due to the hotel side being soft….