Let's revisit the "new" booking rules

[KAT4DISNEY]

I started dissecting this and arguing individual points, but I decided against it.

Again, you can spin, but the truth remains--
AKV concierge checking in on December 28th..

Old System = Day by day booking with a high likelihood of success.

New System = Calling the instant the booking window opens, slim chance of success.

Getting my reservation is the most important part of this equation, not whether or not I have to make several calls.
If I can't get my reservation, what good is the Membership??

MG

When I first joined these boards I remember reading many complaints of members not getting their reservations when booking day by day. And though I haven't counted old posts to back me up I feel I remember more complaints before than the posts during this past month of people not getting their reservations. Most especially I remember many posts of people with holes in their reservations who then were moving 2 or maybe even more times when that is not what they wanted to do.

I think that's why I've switched over my preference to the new booking system. It has it's faults but I think the old one did as well. However now I know if I'll have my whole reservation or not and not be tempted by trying to piece together day by day and then failing.

As for not being able to get AKV Concierge on the 28th of Dec that's such a small category that several members will be disappointed every year no matter what the system is. No particular room is guaranteed. I think there's a poster or two on this thread that repeatedly recommended prospective purchasers not base buying points at AKV on getting that category - that chances were always slim for getting the room. For the most part, the bookings that would have worked under the old will work under the new. The limited ones have always been difficult.

 

[tjkraz]

And the best solution? Hate to keep beating this dead horse, but

And I do agree. The challenge is finding that equilibrium point.

I believe AKV concierge went up across the board. However there are many other mitigating factors like the weekday/weekend adjustments, the fact that the resort isn't sold-out yet (more owners still coming on board) and the reality that any changes to AKV concierge will also impact every other views at the resort since things need to remain in balance.

DVC's seasons can wreck havoc since they don't allow for much variability. Just looking at Adventure Season, there are certainly variances in natural demand for January, September and early-December.

So the question becomes what will it cost us to have truly balanced charts. How long do they evaluate changes before making more? Certainly a single year is not sufficient. Things like the placement of Easter, special events scheduled at WDW (ESPN weekends, Pirate & Princess parties, etc.), location of the Super Bowl or health of the economy can have an impact on reservation trends.

How many different seasons are can they reasonably institute?

How much turbulence are members willing to tolerate as DVC continues to tweak and adjust? Balance is an admirable goal but DVC won't have a program left to administer if people start fleeing in droves because they're tired of a single night's rate being changed from 29 points to 34 points to 31 points to 37 points to...

 

[Maistre Gracey]

When I first joined these boards I remember reading many complaints of members not getting their reservations when booking day by day. And though I haven't counted old posts to back me up I feel I remember more complaints before than the posts during this past month of people not getting their reservations. Most especially I remember many posts of people with holes in their reservations who then were moving 2 or maybe even more times when that is not what they wanted to do.

It's certainly possible that I missed it, but I don't recall anyone not getting their ressie when calling at 9am on the first day of the booking window.

I think that's why I've switched over my preference to the new booking system. It has it's faults but I think the old one did as well.

What were the faults of the old system, other than the personal temptation to call DBD?

However now I know if I'll have my whole reservation or not and not be tempted by trying to piece together day by day and then failing.

Couldn't you accomplish the same thing with the old system by calling from check out date?

As for not being able to get AKV Concierge on the 28th of Dec that's such a small category that several members will be disappointed every year no matter what the system is. No particular room is guaranteed. I think there's a poster or two on this thread that repeatedly recommended prospective purchasers not base buying points at AKV on getting that category - that chances were always slim for getting the room.

True, but at least with the old system everyone had an equal chance at the ressie. With the new system there may be no chance at all.

For the most part, the bookings that would have worked under the old will work under the new. The limited ones have always been difficult.

Difficult perhaps, but plenty possible.
Again, using December 28th as the example, if a family books Christmas through New Years, I'm locked out of that room if I want the 28th thru the New Years. It's more than AKV concierge. It could be as broad as BWV standard view or BCV two queen dedicated 2br.

MG

 

[dianeschlicht]

It's certainly possible that I missed it, but I don't recall anyone not getting their ressie when calling at 9am on the first day of the booking window.


What were the faults of the old system, other than the personal temptation to call DBD?


Couldn't you accomplish the same thing with the old system by calling from check out date?


True, but at least with the old system everyone had an equal chance at the ressie. With the new system there may be no chance at all.


Difficult perhaps, but plenty possible.
Again, using December 28th as the example, if a family books Christmas through New Years, I'm locked out of that room if I want the 28th thru the New Years. It's more than AKV concierge. It could be as broad as BWV standard view or BCV two queen dedicated 2br.

MG

Okay, MG, so why is it you and I both understand that point, but several others don't?

 

[tjkraz]

Again, using December 28th as the example, if a family books Christmas through New Years, I'm locked out of that room if I want the 28th thru the New Years. It's more than AKV concierge. It could be as broad as BWV standard view or BCV two queen dedicated 2br.

And if the family books Christmas through the 28th and calls on 1/28 to book (11 months from check-out) you are also blocked out--before you could ever call.

Or anytime demand exceeds supply and people are calling day-by-day, you run the risk of being shut out.

I just don't see how you can continue to make general claims like DBD having a "high likelihood of success" with all other factors being equal. If you have 30 people ready to call the first day they are able to book 10 villas, 20 of them will not get their room. Period. It's irresponsible to imply a "high likelihood of success" when you have no idea how many people are calling simultaneously to book the limited supply of villas.

Not to confuse things further but I'm also not sure what to make of the suggestion that one couldn't get a room because "someone else called before me." That's a circular argument. If I can't get 12/28 and blame it on someone who booked before me, how did THAT person ever get a room? Shouldn't someone have been able to call before HIM?

When demand exceeds supply, there simply aren't enough rooms to go around. Allowing day-by-day bookings doesn't create additional capacity...it's just a different way of allocating the available units. Day-by-day wasn't a magical elixir that created additional capacity or reduced demand.

 

[BroganMc]

However, with the recent point changes NYE in a BLT LV studio is 38 points for Friday 12/31/10, but will be 32 points for Saturday 12/31/11.

I didn't believe you because my original projections had the 30 and 31st on Fri/Sat nights being really expensive. But you're right.

This year 4 nights at NYE will cost me 86 points at SSR. Next year it is 75.
It's 82 in a Lake View BLT studio this year and 64 next year. Standard view is 75 this year and 54 next. (Not that I expect to be able to book standard view at BLT next year. Not with reservation walking at play.)

Thanks. You just made me feel better about the point reallocation. Now if I lose out on a room this year, I'll just take it as a sign I should sit this year out and go next.

Totally agree with your last point, although I am not sure that doesn't make us both idealistic "suckers"

Sometimes it counts more to be honest than a winner.

 

[dismedvc]

The challenge is finding that equilibrium point.

So the question becomes what will it cost us to have truly balanced charts. How long do they evaluate changes before making more? Certainly a single year is not sufficient. Things like the placement of Easter, special events scheduled at WDW (ESPN weekends, Pirate & Princess parties, etc.), location of the Super Bowl or health of the economy can have an impact on reservation trends.

How many different seasons are can they reasonably institute?

How much turbulence are members willing to tolerate as DVC continues to tweak and adjust? Balance is an admirable goal but DVC won't have a program left to administer if people start fleeing in droves because they're tired of a single night's rate being changed .

There probably is no perfect answer, but I think this thread has been a very open and honest discussion. I think the current system is better that the old DBD for most nights of the year, but something needs to be done differently for the "busy season".

I have been laid up with a bum knee for the past few days, so I have posted more, on several threads, in the last few days than I have posted in the last year. (I am no longer "earning my ears", but am now a "mouseketeer") At the risk of leaving someone out, Tim, MG, Liferbabe, wrdl, BroganMc, Chuck S, bookwormde, diane, bobbiwoz, this has been fun, and if it is monitored by Disney, maybe productive.

Thanks all. Ken

 

[BroganMc]

When demand exceeds supply, there simply aren't enough rooms to go around. Allowing day-by-day bookings doesn't create additional capacity...it's just a different way of allocating the available units. Day-by-day wasn't a magical elixir that created additional capacity or reduced demand.

I swore I would never do DBD bookings when I first bought into the program. I was only going to go off-season and preferred to book my entire stay at once.

Then I decided to try and go for NYE. It was necessary to call right at 9am each day of my desired trip. 12/27, 12/28 and 12/29 wasn't such a big deal. 12/30 it got busy. 12/31 it was a free-for-all, but if you dialed at 8:59am, you usually got your room. 1/1 got less.

Everyone knew that if they wanted to stay at their desired resort for NYE they needed to be up and calling 1/31. If you wanted to stay in the same room, you needed to repeat that committment all the days of your trip. So if you worked hard and were determined, you generally got your room. Now, as long as you can afford it you can be lazy, call the first day and take up the entire room for a week then drop part of it 10 mos. later.

1. If demand was so high that everything was booked before the 11-month window arrived, I'd say the odds of you getting all 4 nights calling day-by-day were also remote.

And yet, under the old system I was able to book BW-view for the opening of Food & Wine (another high demand season for that resort) with no problems.

2. If this thread is to be believed, there are probably people "walking" reservations which include your dates. Addressing that issue would be more effective than returning to the old system.

That's why I support a ban on 7+ day bookings during the highest demand seasons. Make everyone call DBD and have an equal shot every day of getting their desired room. If someone doesn't want to bother doing the DBD, then can call as soon as their checkout day comes and book whatever they want from what's left. The other 11 mos of the year, we stick to 7+ bookings. How is that unfair in your view?

3. Hopefully in another year or two the reallocations will help balance demand to a greater degree. Even better, DVC should increase the point cost for most of December so that these problems go away. It's almost laughable that we go through these issues every single year--particularly with early December. You don't hear about people getting blocked at 11 months for September bookings. There is a reason September is in Adventure season. Early-December should not be in the same season.

I'm not happy about making December really high in points. To do so would require shifting another 2 weeks into Adventure season or majorly dropping the point charts in other seasons. I'm assuming that's why they haven't bothered with it.

The weekend I picked also happens to be the one they film the parade taping. I'm assuming that's why I had the biggest problems. People who book outside that weekend don't appear to have problems.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

And if the family books Christmas through the 28th and calls on 1/28 to book (11 months from check-out) you are also blocked out--before you could ever call.

Or anytime demand exceeds supply and people are calling day-by-day, you run the risk of being shut out.

I don't think so..
I have the option to book DBD, so I have an equal shot at getting the 28th.

I just don't see how you can continue to make general claims like DBD having a "high likelihood of success" with all other factors being equal. If you have 30 people ready to call the first day they are able to book 10 villas, 20 of them will not get their room. Period. It's irresponsible to imply a "high likelihood of success" when you have no idea how many people are calling simultaneously to book the limited supply of villas.

If those numbers actually held up, you would have a 1 in 3 chance of getting your room using the old method.
Under the new system, unless everybody checked out on that day from those 10 rooms (extremely unlikely), you would have 30 people trying to book fewer than 10 rooms, thus less than 1 in 3 chance.

I'll take the better odds using the old method.

Not to confuse things further but I'm also not sure what to make of the suggestion that one couldn't get a room because "someone else called before me." That's a circular argument. If I can't get 12/28 and blame it on someone who booked before me, how did THAT person ever get a room? Shouldn't someone have been able to call before HIM?

It's not that hard to figure out..
Using your example of 30 people trying for 10 rooms- Guess what? 10 people will indeed get the room.

When demand exceeds supply, there simply aren't enough rooms to go around. Allowing day-by-day bookings doesn't create additional capacity...it's just a different way of allocating the available units. Day-by-day wasn't a magical elixir that created additional capacity or reduced demand.

Agreed.
I just find the old system to be a fair method of awarding the available inventory because everyone is on equal footing.
Everyone is not on equal footing with the new system.


For the record I have booked DBD in the past, but only for the questionable stays.
I have also walked a couple times with the new system, but again, only if I felt my ressie would be in question.

-- I have to go to work early in the morning. I'm leaving for seven or eight days, and sometime it's hard to post from the hotel.
I'm just passing this along in case I don't respond to further posts.
I do appreciate your opinion, Tim (even though it is wrong)

MG

 

[tjkraz]

If those numbers actually held up, you would have a 1 in 3 chance of getting your room using the old method.
Under the new system, unless everybody checked out on that day from those 10 rooms (extremely unlikely), you would have 30 people trying to book fewer than 10 rooms, thus less than 1 in 3 chance.

I'll take the better odds using the old method.

And that pretty much brings us full circle.

A 1-in-3 chance means that odds are you will only get only 2 nights of a trip when attempting to book 6 nights day-by-day.

Personally I place a higher priority on giving members their entire desired stay in a single phone call rather than making it an 11 month crap shoot for every single night during peak demand periods.

If DBD had anything going for it, it was that tens-of-thousands of members were totally ignorant of the process. You weren't competing with 140,000 other members at 11 months--you were only competing with the subset who were actually aware of the possibility.

Sure DVC allowed people book DBD, but all our member handbooks and website ever said were that we could book "11 months from departure day."

DBD may have lead to a higher degree of success but that success artificially inflated by member ignorance. If DVC had publicly endorsed DBD booking, success levels would have fallen off dramatically. Even with DVC not advocating the method, instances of DBD success would have steadily decreased over time as more existing and new members became aware of the process.

Sure you could claim that a pure first-in, first-out system is "fairer", but that's cold comfort when a half-dozen calls only yield 2 nights instead of the desired 6 or 7.

Like KAT4DISNEY, I too remember the complaints of DBD booking failure. The ones I most vividly recall did involve AKV concierge bookings. There were many instances of people asking for advice after securing only a couple of their desired dates or having gaps in the middle of their trip. And it had begun to creep into other small room categories, too.

DBD was living on borrowed time.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

It's certainly possible that I missed it, but I don't recall anyone not getting their ressie when calling at 9am on the first day of the booking window.

I especially remember because I thought it sounded like a horrible process and it didn't take me long to dismiss the idea and decide I would call from my actual check out date for any reservation. I was starting to think from all the complaint threads that there would be no way I could get my full stay reserved - but there wasn't any problem. I then started to think that day by day wasn't necessary except in very rare time periods and certain room types and was being used excessively.

What were the faults of the old system, other than the personal temptation to call DBD?

First, the problem that if you took advantage of day by day you weren't guaranteed to get the room every day and thus could end up with stranded days, extra moves, additional costs related to so much moving around. (I think I'm quoting Dean at the moment on some of that!) In a 4 day period there could have been up to 4 people holding one of those days and waitlisting for the other three. Unless 3 of them gave up on their waitlists you still weren't going to get that room and would have moved in and out for 1 night.

Also that DBD wasn't known to all the membership - it too was working the sytem even though allowed. Any literature I ever read was that you could book from your check-out day. That DBD was figured out and then recommended by MS means that only the people who learned of it from someone in the know or happened to be told of it by MS benefited.

Couldn't you accomplish the same thing with the old system by calling from check out date?

Yep! It's really tit for tat on this point IMO.

True, but at least with the old system everyone had an equal chance at the ressie. With the new system there may be no chance at all.

Anyone checking out before me had the chance to book some of my days before I did if I strictly followed how bookings were to be done.

If I went with day by day I was just as likely to get blocked out on single days assuming the reservation truly was hard to get. If I got all the days then I may not even have needed to do by day and consumed my time and MS time unnecessarily.

As mentioned above unless the whole membership knew of day by day then those that didn't did not have an equal chance either. We members of the internet boards had a better chance on securing the reservation. We have no idea how many people that don't post here were extremely disappointed to never get concierge for Christmas because others booked day by day rather than wait for the real check out day.

Difficult perhaps, but plenty possible.
Again, using December 28th as the example, if a family books Christmas through New Years, I'm locked out of that room if I want the 28th thru the New Years. It's more than AKV concierge. It could be as broad as BWV standard view or BCV two queen dedicated 2br.

MG

Tim pointed out the fault with this - it's only flipped from who gets first dibs on the room. And still retains the day by day problems of not getting your phone call thru before all the other competitors for that room.

Okay, MG, so why is it you and I both understand that point, but several others don't?

I'd say the same thing but in reverse! JK - I do understand the point and argued it for a long time but now place higher priority on the new point - a room for your whole stay without moves or having to pay cash to fill in missing days.

Funny thing - the process that is under such attack (walking) is pretty much the new equalizer like day by day was. But it can also be superior to day by day b/c once you have the first day you're good to go. And again - board members have an edge in even knowing about it. It's inferior in that it ties up a room that a person has no intention of using but I'm of the opinion that if a person knows about walking then they will actually do it and not hang on to it longer than necessary. Personally it's not something I'll do just as I wouldn't do the day by day. But if there is a room I don't get and am not willing to forget about I will always waitlist and call back a time or two in the following week in case a walker blocked me. Still less calls than the day by day thing that I didn't guaranteed me a room either.

 

[dianeschlicht]

LOL, I'm almost sorry I brought it up, because now my head hurts!

 

[keishashadow]

And if the family books Christmas through the 28th and calls on 1/28 to book (11 months from check-out) you are also blocked out--before you could ever call.

Or anytime demand exceeds supply and people are calling day-by-day, you run the risk of being shut out.

I just don't see how you can continue to make general claims like DBD having a "high likelihood of success" with all other factors being equal. If you have 30 people ready to call the first day they are able to book 10 villas, 20 of them will not get their room. Period. It's irresponsible to imply a "high likelihood of success" when you have no idea how many people are calling simultaneously to book the limited supply of villas.

When demand exceeds supply, there simply aren't enough rooms to go around. Allowing day-by-day bookings doesn't create additional capacity...it's just a different way of allocating the available units. Day-by-day wasn't a magical elixir that created additional capacity or reduced demand.

yes, but under the DBD system how many people "knew" or were willing to expend the time to call DBD 1st thing every morning to secure a ressie?

Im not sure it is/was a well-known strategy outside this message board.

IMO, compared to the odds of current+ sytem, when somebody calls in on day 1 & MS asks them when they want to checkout; all the remaining days can vanish in one call vs the likelihood that a certain % of callers won't be quick enough to call back day by day. While it's the same # of rooms, im willing to be my odds increase due to the variables of necessity for repeat calls under DBD system...im a persistent sort & had no issues in the past.

 

[dclfun]

One issue that I'm not sure has been discussed: with the current system, if day 1 of your ressie is n/a you CANNOT waitlist that one day and book the following 6 days. You CANNOT book a different room type or resort for day one ( and waitlist what you really wanted) and book the following 6 days as that is considered two separate ressies. So if someone is walking ( and I can assure you that for much of the limited supply of AKV concierge in December it was being walked), then you are likely to get shut out of *your* day 1 and as such, will have a huge problem eventually getting your dates. You still need to then call DBD to try and get your Day 1 which will only show up when it's dropped by the walkers or if by some lucky chance the following check in day is available. That's also not likely and MS confirmed that was not a likely scenario. I asked about waitlisting all 7 days and was told I could do so, but I was advised that someone calling in would get an advantage because the waitlists are filled manually, so they aren't as reliable as calling in. All in all, I was never frustrated by the DBD sytem although it was an inconvenience to call every morning exactly at 9 am. I still had to call in exactly at 9 am with the new system- so no difference there. I didn't call DBD for dates/resort/room types that weren't HTG but at least I was on equal footing and didn't have to play a game or try to outwit someone else to get what I wanted. If I lost out on something at least I didn't feel so cheated.---Kathy

 

[dianeschlicht]

One issue that I'm not sure has been discussed: with the current system, if day 1 of your ressie is n/a you CANNOT waitlist that one day and book the following 6 days. You CANNOT book a different room type or resort for day one ( and waitlist what you really wanted) and book the following 6 days as that is considered two separate ressies. So if someone is walking ( and I can assure you that for much of the limited supply of AKV concierge in December it was being walked), then you are likely to get shut out of *your* day 1 and as such, will have a huge problem eventually getting your dates. You still need to then call DBD to try and get your Day 1 which will only show up when it's dropped by the walkers or if by some lucky chance the following check in day is available. That's also not likely and MS confirmed that was not a likely scenario. I asked about waitlisting all 7 days and was told I could do so, but I was advised that someone calling in would get an advantage because the waitlists are filled manually, so they aren't as reliable as calling in. All in all, I was never frustrated by the DBD sytem although it was an inconvenience to call every morning exactly at 9 am. I still had to call in exactly at 9 am with the new system- so no difference there. I didn't call DBD for dates/resort/room types that weren't HTG but at least I was on equal footing and didn't have to play a game or try to outwit someone else to get what I wanted. If I lost out on something at least I didn't feel so cheated.---Kathy

I agree, and is that not a royal pain?

 

[tjkraz]

yes, but under the DBD system how many people "knew" or were willing to expend the time to call DBD 1st thing every morning to secure a ressie?

That's probably the one benefit to DBD--the fact that not everyone was aware of it. In a sense it's ironic that some refer to DBD as the "fairer" of the two systems. Not sure how it can be called "fair" when not all members were equally informed of the ability to book day-by-day.

Nevertheless, you can bet that number of members booking day-by-day was steadily increasing. Odds of success may have historically been high but they would only drop as more and more members became aware of the ability to book DBD and new members were made aware of it on Day One via forums like this.

There were already reports of people having DBD difficulties for things like AKV Concierge and OKW Grand Villas. The same would be true of BLT MK and Standard views, AKV Grand Villas, BWV Standard View, BCV Two Bedrooms with 2 Queens, etc.

Ultimately DBD would leave more and more members with gaps in their trips and member costs would continue to escalate to handle the more frequent room cleanings and increased phone traffic at Member Services.

One issue that I'm not sure has been discussed: with the current system, if day 1 of your ressie is n/a you CANNOT waitlist that one day and book the following 6 days.

No, but you can waitlist the first day and call back on Day Two to try and book the rest of the trip.

Day-by-day bookings had become so commonplace that people were using it for even mundane reservations which could be obtained months into the booking window. At least with the current system the only people making multiple calls are those who can't get their first night on the first call.

One of the common threads here seems to be the sentiment that "I always got what I wanted booking day-by-day, therefore it must be the better system." Frankly I think we're kidding ourselves by assuming that DBD bookings would yield the same level of success in 2010 and beyond as they did in 2005.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

LOL, I'm almost sorry I brought it up, because now my head hurts!

Just now? My head hurt when you brought it up!

It's a good topic of discussion. I seem to be the only convert though and I'm the one that's been shut out twice so far!

One of the common threads here seems to be the sentiment that "I always got what I wanted booking day-by-day, therefore it must be the better system." Frankly I think we're kidding ourselves by assuming that DBD bookings would yield the same level of success in 2010 and beyond as they did in 2005.

That's what I think as well.

 

[bobbiwoz]

Blow me over with a feather. DH called this morning and we got our first choice, 2 bedroom standard view BWV December 28 for 4 nights! We didn't have enough BWV points to book January 1, so we'll try at 7 months or if not, just leave it at that.

My last conversation was with Sheila at Member Satisfaction, this was earlier this month. I honestly thought we would be shut out, but she insisted that walking isn't a problem. For standard view BWV, for the dates we wanted, she was right. I'll be sending her a note tomorrow.

Bobbi

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Congratulations Bobbi and good luck with getting the 1st!

Now, would your DH have preferred to call by day by day or did he like the one call?

I hope your experience will be the norm.

 

[CarolMN]

Blow me over with a feather. DH called this morning and we got our first choice, 2 bedroom standard view BWV December 28 for 4 nights! We didn't have enough BWV points to book January 1, so we'll try at 7 months or if not, just leave it at that.

My last conversation was with Sheila at Member Satisfaction, this was earlier this month. I honestly thought we would be shut out, but she insisted that walking isn't a problem. For standard view BWV, for the dates we wanted, she was right. I'll be sending her a note tomorrow.

Bobbi

I'm happy to hear this - happy for you, Bobbi!


Perhaps the only real problems will be the AKV concierge, BLT MK view GVs and SSR's THVs. I really think that once all 60 THV's are declared, those will cease to be a problem. (Could be a while, though since SSR sales appear to be going slowly). Concierge will always be a problem no matter what. I don't think that category is even relevant to the discussion. Leaning towards that conclusion for any booking category that has 7 or less units (such as the MK view GV or the BWV GV).

My main concern is the negative impact on members if DVC decides to stop walking. Will they institute a fee for changes to a reservation? Prohibit dropping days? Stop the ability to add a day to the initial reservation until the 11 month window opens? Eliminate all changes - i.e., make all changes a cancelation and rebook, thus possibly losing the reservation to a waitlist?

I can argue for any or all of those things, but all would have a negative impact on a subset of members.

FWIW, I hated the change to the new system, but have to admit I have since changed my mind. I still think the old system was more fair, but the new system isn't really resulting in wide spread inequities and definitely requires less calls.