Late Summer/Early Fall Incentives

[airjay75]

When we purchased earlier this year. We signed and spread our payments over 6-7 weeks. They knew up front we had purchased D23 Gold but didn't have the card. Technically, our 10 day period was long past, but they told us once we had the D23 Gold, they would update. Around 30-35 days in, they agreed to use the D23 Gold e-mail. They re-wrote, lowering the price for one of the 3 contracts. Not sure why, but they required us to sign all 3 deeds again. Points for the three deeds were the exact same.

Based on our experience, if Disney hasn't received the full payment, they MAY re-write any contracts. They certainly did in our case. YMMV.

You’re giving me hope I can get that extra $500!

 

[DanCali]

100% true with RIV. But big mystery is with the Cabins and LSL.

We can say it's an unknown because there are no resale contracts yet. And maybe the dues at CFW will go down if it's part of LSL.

But is the eventual resale value really a mystery? After seeing the RIV trajectory for 5 years, is there any reason to believe at this point that a 1-resort contract should have a value anywhere near the 17-resort contract DVC sells you? Or even half the original value?

We love RIV and CFW is our favorite resort for non-park stays. But I wouldn't buy either one direct because of the restrictions, and I wouldn't buy RIV resale even at current prices. For a 1-resort contract, I think the price still has substantial downside.

 

[tx911]

I just need enabling

Be enabled

 

[VGCgroupie]

Looking at Poly, the current pricing is almost identical to the AP 1k promo at 150 points and gets better at 300+ points. (Previous AP 1k + D23 total pricing in yellow)

View attachment 993354

I had some FOMO that I didn't take advantage of that sale. DVC pulls me right back in

Im sayin.. great way to get people to pay attention.. new unexpected incentives. But if you take a deep breath and look at previous offers it's typically in line or less than in the past.

 

[Mouseforward]

For a 1-resort contract, I think the price still has substantial downside.

Most 2042 resale contracts sold are essentially purchased to stay at the resort. No one pays $125 for BC to trade out for a cheaper resort.

I do not think it is worth it to buy a resort like Poly, and give up 11 month advantage for the loss in "resale"

 

[VGCgroupie]

I am so torn if this Riv deal is a good deal. We are a 1 bedroom poly tower/2 bedroom Riv family (we like 2 sleeping spaces and 2 bathrooms) so we need 320 points every other year (160 points). We have an older 100 direct point contract so we have blue card privileges. We like to stay all over and long term I just feel like we need direct points since we are used to staying wherever we feel like staying (we swap ant 7 months for most stays). Our go tos are Polynesian and boardwalk but this last time we stayed at Riviera and loved it. I go back and forth on this Riviera because I feel like we are getting close to Riv being sold out and if we want to buy there we need to get direct while it is in active sales (not later when it is sold out). There is an around a $10 ppt difference between poly and RIV direct right now but RIV has $1 higher dues. Poly has less years left and if I really wanted poly points I can wait for the resale market to settle down with the glut of points out there and get a deal there. We have October use year so I need to pull the trigger in September or hope for a fire sale. What to do

RIV has resale restrictions and direct points lose the more value immediately over Poly. Poly has less years. Each has it downside/upside over the other. Buy where you want to stay at most and have the hardest time booking at. If you like using them anywhere Id say buying Poly resale isnt worth it over direct if Poly is what you want to buy.

 

[disneylandtour]

We can say it's an unknown because there are no resale contracts yet. And maybe the dues at CFW will go down if it's part of LSL.

There have been Cabins for sale resale--not a lot but so far. I think there's been a total of three resale contracts that I've spotted, including...

https://www.disboards.com/threads/sold-today-cabins-at-fort-wilderness-resale-contract.3970242/

 

[airjay75]

You definitely have to count the cost with RIV/CFW/VDH and other new resorts with the resale restrictions. The product is changing and you simply are not going to be guaranteed that your contracts will hold the same residual value they once did. But, I also think there is a fair amount of unpredictability as to how the DVC resale market will evolve over time.

When RIV sells out and existing owners decide they want more RIV points, will they be willing to pay a premium for resale that they aren’t now?

As @Mouseforward just pointed out, people buy the 2042 resorts right now basically only intending to use them there and they often pay quite a premium for those points - will this happen to the restricted resorts at some point in the future?

People who have bought resale SAP contracts will have less and less options over time and their relative value over a restricted resale contract will decline - newer, restricted resorts will have longer contracts by comparison.

Right now, RIV is the red headed step child on the resale market. It won’t always be. And we don’t know how the resale restrictions will affect prices in the long run.

 

[airjay75]

And breaking news - go check out the ROFR thread for Disney exercising ROFR on the first ever RIV contract!

 

[DanCali]

Most 2042 resale contracts sold are essentially purchased to stay at the resort. No one pays $125 for BC to trade out for a cheaper resort.

That's like me saying nobody would get $8 value using points for a cruise when you can rent them out for $20+. But plenty of people still do it... That may be a personal preference for you, but I'm not sure how you can say that generally.

If people who don't own BCV trade in at the 7 month window, that must mean that others who do own there either trade out or will eventually be forced to do something else with their points due to lack of availability. And trading into BCV at the 7-month window is not always that hard if you like to go in summer and/or need a 1BR.

But back to my original point - a part of the value of a contract must come from the ability to trade. It's like a stock option, and the value is never zero until it expires. I think of a contract's value as [X% from value of home resort bookings] and [(1-X%) from value of ability to trade]. And the actual dollar value per point will also vary based on location, amenities, dues, points charts, etc. That X may be higher at smaller resorts like BCV or VGC that owners like to visit year after year, but it's not 100% since they are unrestricted. However, X is 100% for resale contracts at restricted resorts. So if you view RIV and VGF as comparable resorts, RIV can easily end up at half the resale value of VGF due to restrictions, if you think that half of the contract's value comes from it's flexibility to trade to other places.

 

[maui22]

I mean they can try new offers. Any new offer, especially a completely unexpected offer draws a buzz. That is great marketing imo. Overall pricing is still up from a year ago.

Everyone said Disney was getting hit real bad if the park wasn't as busy as normal one day or if they put out a good ap cash discount.. but then the quarterly report said otherwise.

Agree on the marketing and pricing being higher. Additionally, they now have PVB which they didn't a year ago. PVB has been the sales leader. Makes me think their overall numbers are higher than a year ago.

However, Disney has their own projections. How does it compare with their projections for DVD?
Just because Disney corporation does good or bad, doesn't reflect what their internal expectations are.

For example, using @wdrl sales data on DVCNews. Did they really think RVA would be at 60K in March, 45k in April, 43k in May, and 43k in June?

I honestly believe July will be better for RVA.

 

[VGCgroupie]

How are you finding it on DVCFL? There's no category. I know where the one is (can't post due to site rules here), but I didn't find it through DVDFL.

It listed when you just scroll and look at all listings. There's no filter for it. https://www.dvcforless.com

 

[disneylandtour]

Sorry, repost.

 

[davidhr]

FYI, these posts are likely going to be deleted.

 

[gvel]

FYI, these posts are likely going to be deleted.

What did I do wrong now?!... I feel like I'm constantly getting in trouble. I used the link for website and redacted the name of broker and logo in the pic. Hopefully I don't get in trouble.

 

[PolyRob]

Im sayin.. great way to get people to pay attention.. new unexpected incentives. But if you take a deep breath and look at previous offers it's typically in line or less than in the past.

Yes! I have crunched the numbers back to when PVB initially went on sale and with dues saved it's pretty much flat. Nothing earth shattering across most point thresholds.

If only there was a sale on something sold out like AKV or OKW in the past. That would be intriguing.

 

[Patsaizan]

Definitely interested in LSL. The incentives for CFW pique my interest. Last month we met with our guide who said he was pretty certain LSL and CFW would be combined in the trust, thus lowering the dues rate in addition to 11 month advantage at both. With these new incentives wondering if it is prudent to get 150 points at CFW.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Definitely interested in LSL. The incentives for CFW pique my interest. Last month we met with our guide who said he was pretty certain LSL and CFW would be combined in the trust, thus lowering the dues rate in addition to 11 month advantage at both. With these new incentives wondering if it is prudent to get 150 points at CFW.

That the thing though.. if it's not combined you are stuck with insanely high dues just for the Cabins. Pretty sure the guide could very well get in trouble for making a comment like that

 

[Mouseforward]

That's like me saying nobody would get $8 value using points for a cruise when you can rent them out for $20+. But plenty of people still do it... That may be a personal preference for you, but I'm not sure how you can say that generally.

People use their points for cruises because they either have more than they can use and are not willing or knowledgeable about the rental market. Essentially they’re no longer thinking of their points with a dollar value.

If you had to convert your points to a dollar value and Disney gave you eight dollars for each point. And you let them know of the alternatives in the rental market would they make the same decision? No because it would be forcing them to think of their points as a dollar value.

Basically it comes down to I use rational choice theory when making guesses about finances.. always assuming the consumer makes a reasonable choice.

 

[Mouseforward]

That the thing though.. if it's not combined you are stuck with insanely high dues just for the Cabins. Pretty sure the guide could very well get in trouble for making a comment like that

Yeah, they should be sticking to the script. Despite my probing questions, Bill never left the script.

Not that I disagree, Lakeshore Lodge is just too physically close that it would be like BLT not being a part of contemporary.