it is still early, but they are currently calling for rain. Rain may keep the crowds down. If it doesn't rain, it will be slammed, and likely for the entire night until they turn the lights off for the last time. Don't underestimate the power of a farewell performance.
yes, Florida Resident Seasonal AP (now known as Silver Pass) and Florida Resident/DVC Gold Pass is blocked on the 1st, but not the 2nd or 3rd according to what I'm seeing. Disney however does have a link to a graphic blockout calendar which shows Silver Pass blockouts on the 2nd and 3rd.