I'm always leery of "financial analyses" because they often turn out to be nothing more than a tortured manipulation of numbers to justify whatever the person wanted to prove in the first place.
I also agree with those who say it's difficult to compare
DVC accommodations to other types of accommodations.
Instead, if I were looking at the financial aspects, I would just figure my cost for a DVC reservation during the season I wanted to visit. Once I have an accurate idea of what my points are costing this year, I can do simple math and evaluate the relative value of DVC costs and non-DVC accommodations.
I would start with the assumption that I sell my DVC after 10 years for 20% of my purchase price, after all costs of selling. (I'm basically figuring I'd sell ten years later for about 25-30% of what I paid, and have to pay a 10% commission.)
I'd take my 80% of my purchase price, add 100% of any closing or financing charges (because I'm not going to get any of those costs back) and divide that sum by 10X the number of points I own. That would give me my acquisition cost
per point,
per year. Then, I'd add my current annual dues per point to get my total cost
this year for those points.
For example, let's say I was contemplating purchasing 200 points resale with SSR as my home resort. I think I can get SSR for $55 per point, so I'm looking at an $11,000 purchase + closing costs of $500 -- and I'm paying cash, so no financing. My math is as follows:
80% of purchase price = $8,800 + Closing costs $500 = Total acquisition cost over 10 years = $9,300
Acquisition cost per point per year = $9,300 divided by (10X200 points) = $4.65 per point.
$4.65 + 2013 dues of $4.81 =
$9.46 per point total cost for 2013
Then I'd multiply my cost X the number of points needed for a particular reservation and decide whether that cost was reasonable or not.
I assumed paying cash. Obviously, if I'd financed, the per point cost would be significantly higher.