I just wanted to pull your comment out of the ROFR thread to talk about Paul. I've heard you guys talk a lot about the 250 expectation. I think this is largely getting swept up in Disney's (very successful) FOMO move to launch Poly Tower. You are not thinking very long term beyond the first few months of sales.
Disney pricing Poly 25 dollars more a point seems a complete irrational mistake. Which doesn't mean it's not possible for DVD to make a mistake, but it strikes me as incredibly unlikely and out of line with everything they've done before.
There's nothing that special about this resort. I'm personally impressed with the Tower, but this isn't VGF. It is not their signature resort. It is not points limited (in fact it is going to have waaayyy too many points). It is not even theoretically the last MK resort to enter the system.
If they launch at 250, they'll enjoy their triumphant opening sales. Then direct Poly sales will fall off a cliff. The market will wake up the reality there are going to be 9+ million Poly points in the system. Many of which are already being sold as their owners hit the typical resale age of contracts. Everyone will have had their fill. Resale will drop off a cliff back to the 120-140's it belongs. Then they'll struggle eternally not just against Poly resales, but RIV direct. Which is always going to be starting with a 25$ advantage baked in.
We've seen time and time again that price matters most in long term sales. This is not a small product launch, it's a generous (5+ million) bolus of points and nothing warrants it launching above the current market dynamics. I think there would be a much stronger argument if we only had CFW at 225 and VDH at 239 (even then I'd argue it would start at 239). But with RIV in the mix and the market already have tested the strategy with VGF, 225 is the starting price.
BUT, DVD does has a habit of screwing up all of their recent launches. So with that said - maybe they will launch at 250.