Taking the Name of Lord Keynes in Vain
By Mario J. Rizzo Friday, February 20, 2009
Keynes is being invoked in Washington these days; it is a pity few seem to understand what he thought.
The eminent economist John Maynard Keynes is having a moment these days, as policymakers and pundits search for answers to the current economic problems. The Wall Street Journal recently dubbed Keynes “The New Old Big Thing in Economics.” The Christian Science Monitor ran an article called “Raising Keynes: An old economist finds new rock-star status.” New York Times columnist Paul Krugman has said the country is in a “Keynesian Moment.”
But if we are going to attempt to solve the problems of today by drawing inspiration from Keynes, then we should pay attention to his mature ideas rather than to the textbook versions of what he said, some of which reflect Keynes’s earlier thinking. When we do this we shall find that some of his policy proposals were quite different from today’s “Keynesian” wisdom. Other proposals were extraordinarily radical and far from what is being proposed by lawmakers on the political left or right today.
It is true that in the 1920s and early 1930s, Keynes advocated measures such as deficit-financed public works expenditure to offset recessions. But that was not unique to him. Such “orthodox” academic economists as Frank H. Knight, Jacob Viner, and Paul H. Douglas also advocated such policies, albeit on different grounds. So when advocates of deficit spending for public works projects invoke Keynes, they could just as easily invoke orthodox economists as well.
Either way, by the late 1930s, Keynes was not an advocate of many of the countercyclical policies being advocated today. For example, with respect to increasing investment through public works—or what today we are calling “infrastructure improvements”—Keynes’s view is highly nuanced.
In the first place, he preferred that such investments be made without deficits. But if they were to be made as “loan expenditure”—that is, through a deficit in the portion of the government’s budget allocated to long-term expenditures like infrastructure—the expenditure should be covered by a surplus in the portion of the budget allocated to ordinary expenses like transfer payments, or through a special fund accumulated in prosperous times for just such purposes. If a deficit were incurred, the investments should be “self-liquidating,” that is they should repay their costs over the long run. Thus his strong, but not rigid, preference was against deficit-financed public works.
It is important to note that Keynes did not think that public works expenditure was very effective in countering existing or impending recessions. For one, he believed that it was difficult to get the timing right; it would take a long time to plan and execute the appropriate projects (indeed, many of the projects would not take effect until the pressing economic problem was inflation and not recession).
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