Is this a normal market for DVC resales??

[ABE4DISNEY]

Hi!
DH and I are seriously contemplating buying into DVC this year. It seems like there are plenty to choose from, but we were wondering if this will be consistent throughout the year or if the market dries up as the year progresses. Just any thoughts on what you think would be a good time to purchase. Do you think the market will get even better or do you think it will dry up? Thanks!
amy

 

[shortypots]

I am not sure. Right now seems like a great time to buy (but last May when we bought our 2nd contract seemed like a great time too.) Keeping the economy in mind, I would think that the worst is not among us yet. I know my DH just lost his job, but with his severance and cash pension, we won't have to resort to selling our timeshares for 2 yrs, but that is just us. I would think that he would definitely find another job in 2 yrs, but you never know.

Considering unemployment is at the highest rate since 1983, and a lot of the people, like my DH, haven't even hit unemployment yet due to his severance, I am certain we haven't seen the worst of it yet from an economic standpoint. I just don't know if people will try selling now, or wait til they are really hurting. If they are like me and DH, they will wait another year to sell to see if they can hold onto it.

My personal opinion is later this year you will really see the bottom fall out of the market when people are struggling to make their house payments.

 

[5forDiz]

DH and I keep an pretty consistent eye on resale market as we like to pick up small contracts for additional points, past couple of months there has been alot to choose from; sometimes the pickings could be slim depending upon the resort you may be interested in ( ie BLT resale ).

Good luck

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

Thanks so much for all your info! You have really helped me! Sorry to hear about your situation, Shorty. Hopefully, a better job will come around soon. Ed, thanks for your extra info. also. I will definitely heed your advice. We were wondering if all the good ones were being scooped up. I agree that a broker is a necessity.
Thanks!
amy

 

[Paging Tom Morrow]

It depends on how you determine normal.

Unemployment hasn't been higher in the last 15+ years. This means that some DVC owners have lost their income and are looking to turn assets into disposable funds.

With respect to the glut of available resales to the overall economic environment, I think it is "normal" to expect such a quantity of resales and at lower prices than we have seen in a while....

 

[JimMIA]

My "seat of the pants" hunch is that the economy will look MUCH worse a year from now than it does now. It's nuts to try to "buy the bottom" of any market for anything, but I don't think we're near the bottom yet.

If I were thinking about buying now, I'd take advantage of the Disney promotions for a year, maybe two and then see where resale prices are. (Wait until GM, Chrysler, Citibank, and Bank of America fold...then look.)

To me, right now, the DVC-direct prices of >$100 per point are just sucker bets.

 

[disney dumbo]

My "seat of the pants" hunch is that the economy will look MUCH worse a year from now than it does now. It's nuts to try to "buy the bottom" of any market for anything, but I don't think we're near the bottom yet.

I sadly agree. I do believe times will get better... but not sure how long it's going to take.

Just notice the promotion at the bottom of this web page. Wonder if Disney has ever offered anything like a "buy 4 nights, get 3 free" in prime summer time? I think that screams times are bad in the Disney vacation market.

While in the past few years since we have bought... DVC has been a cheaper way to stay. But... with promotions like that... maybe not owning during this time would be a cheaper way to travel???

I would think that bad times = lower sales price. Even if people bought like this board advises... only with money you have... and only if you plan to go to Disney... the truth is... if you need money for living... you must sell luxuries. DVC is a luxury. And some money from sales will be better than no money... for those that are in need.

I haven't crunched any numbers recently... and may not want to see any...

The good news... Disney's fantasy is a still a great place to run away to... and we may really need it more now than ever!

ABE4DISNEY, you sit in a great spot... being a buyer. Enjoy!
Good luck! (to us all!)

 

[jade1]

Hi!
DH and I are seriously contemplating buying into DVC this year. It seems like there are plenty to choose from, but we were wondering if this will be consistent throughout the year or if the market dries up as the year progresses. Just any thoughts on what you think would be a good time to purchase. Do you think the market will get even better or do you think it will dry up? Thanks!
amy

Using BCV for example-there are what 30 on this site? Used to be 3 or 4 maybe. But who knows as the year goes, I doubt it will drop to 5 over night. Plus look how many others there are. My "guess" is its a good time and will get even better.