Is the resale cost per point likely to go fluctuate because of the March 20th thing?

[DIS_MERI]

I know this is going to be mere speculation, and I apologize if this is in the wrong place, but are resale prices likely to go even lower (for say SSR, since contracts are passing ROFR in the low 50s) after March 20th? Or is this a temporary dip? I've not been following prices for long enough to know. TIA!

 

[Sandisw]

I don't think anyone knows for sure but many do think they will slip a bit.

I can tell you that what appears to be happening is that contracts are selling quickly and that buyers who were on the fence seem to be jumping aboard to purchase before the change.

For the short term, I bet that means that sellers are able to ask a bit more or hold out for their asking price. There are a lot of contracts, just on the TSS site that say sale pending--many more than I remember seeing in a long time.

I know that if they do begin to slip, I may start thinking about adding on more points as well.

 

[TLSnell1981]

We don't know, what these contracts are actually selling for. I've watched TSS for several weeks and quite a few listings haven't sold. The "pending" contracts could very well be going for a bit less, than their asking price.

 

[FindingFigment]

If there wasn't such a thing as addonitis, I'd say the prices would drop significantly after 3/20. But I've seen enough existing DVC members say they will add on if that happens....so I believe they will stay somewhat stable with only a slight decrease. But I actually believe over time they will continue to slightly decrease. So if someone is hoping to buy next year or a couple of years down the road, they are probably in for the biggest bargains.

But I don't want to wait that long. Even though I'm a bargain hunter by nature, I just don't believe it'll be worth it to wait for me. I'd rather pay a few extra $'s now and get what I want. Especially since I'm in the camp that thinks it's possible this grandfather date might be used for future perk changes.

 

[Chuck S]

I think they are likely to drop some, but I eally don't think it will be a truly significant drop. There may be an adjustment period, of a large drop, and then a rebound, but overall, I think it will be a pretty small price drop long term.

But, as you say, it is all speculation at this point.

 

[smjj]

As members for several years now, we would not have been burned at all by this change had it been in place from day one, for us it is not an issue. As a matter of fact, we were talking that if we added on again, it might be to our advantage if the price of a resale drops a little....smjj

 

[dianeschlicht]

As members for several years now, we would not have been burned at all by this change had it been in place from day one, for us it is not an issue. As a matter of fact, we were talking that if we added on again, it might be to our advantage if the price of a resale drops a little....smjj

That has been my thought as well. Since we usually only use points at our home resorts anyway, It makes sense to take advantage of lower prices.

 

[Dean]

I believe there will be a modest drop but more importantly, that rates won't rise nearly as fast as does retail so the spread widens. I do believe that the higher cost options like BCV and BLT will be more affected than others though, esp BLT. I do expect other changes and those will likely widen the divide even further. On the bright side, it's a great opportunity to buy because the lost benefits have little value anyway and in some cases are actually more expensive to the buyer than not buying in at all.

 

[n2mm]

I think they will drop, but no one knows how low. One thing I'm sure we'll see is a real slow down to resale purchases. Right now it's a frenzy trying to get in before the change. I guess it will all depend how long the resales sit on the market after the 20th. I'll be shopping for a bargain. I have enough points to use for a cruise if I choose, so if I add on it will only be for the home advantage of a sold out resort.

 

[jade1]

That has been my thought as well. Since we usually only use points at our home resorts anyway, It makes sense to take advantage of lower prices.

Same, if this causes a drop we will be likely to add on to our DDT's.(Dedicated Disney Trips).

 

[dizfan]

In the end, supply vs demand will set the price.

Millions of factors both inside and outside of Disney impact this.

I suspect even Madame Leota's crystal ball doesn't know the answer.

 

[Dean]

This will not change the inherent value of owning DVC, only take away poor options.

 

[bgraham34]

I bet you will see a drop initially after the cutoff date but will soon pickup a little bit.

 

[skelfbsfb]

We are looking to add on again, but like others the new change will not really affect us as we only use our points for our home resorts.

 

[Mississippian]

I bet you will see a drop initially after the cutoff date but will soon pickup a little bit.

I think just the opposite. There has been a rush to buy existing resale contracts that is going to create a temporary shortage. As time goes by and more come on the market, they will have decreased demand and thus prices will trend lower. But for several months they should remain stable or even higher.

Unlike Dean, I think these changes are likely to hit Vero, HHI and SSR the hardest, as resale purchasers may begin to fear that they will lose the right to stay at other resorts. I don't this this is realistic, but I can't count the number of times I've seen people write "What Next?" on these boards. I don't think these fears are well founded, but I think buyers are going to swing back to buying where they want to stay.

 

[Mom B]

I think just the opposite. There has been a rush to buy existing resale contracts that is going to create a temporary shortage.

That's what I was thinking...with all these people rushing to sell their points before the deadline, will the resale market all but disappear for a while? This would, you'd think, bump the prices up again, so maybe it won't change all that much in the long run.

It will be interesting to sit on the sidelines and see what opportunities may arise!

 

[smjj]

Has anyone ask this question? Will the yearly member's Cruise be affected by this change in the rules? I know since we have been members for quite some time now it won't affect us but what about new re-sale buyers?...smjj

 

[Chuck S]

Has anyone ask this question? Will the yearly member's Cruise be affected by this change in the rules? I know since we have been members for quite some time now it won't affect us but what about new re-sale buyers?...smjj

I'm willing to guess that they are welcome to take the members cruise, paying with $ not points.

 

[Dean]

Has anyone ask this question? Will the yearly member's Cruise be affected by this change in the rules? I know since we have been members for quite some time now it won't affect us but what about new re-sale buyers?...smjj

I wouldn't be surprised if they waived the restriction for member cruises, actually I'd be surprised if they didn't within the next 3 years but we'll see.

 

[ssawka]

I think the resale prices will hold steady. The reason, Disney keeps raising the direct price (on the Wonder last week, they said BLT will be going up to $140pp base price). I think that will actually make resales look more attractive, if people do there research and realize the change is not that big of a deal.