Is star wars finally coming?

[ahoyle]

1 Disney just bought the company in 2012. Also it would be stupid for them to build something with new movies coming out starting next year. They would wait for the new ones if they were smart.

2. Universal isn't going to overtake Magic Kingdom EVER and Epcot wont be overtaken either. Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios maybe, but their numbers get bigger each year and they aren't even doing anything. So you can bet when Avatar opens and the new things come that Animal Kingdom will see a boost and Hollywood Studios will see a boost when they build stuff. Disney would have to sit and do NOTHING for years before Universal could overtake them. Not saying it couldn't happen to the two lowers but if it did Disney would bounce.

3. Two of those tree proposed hotels are looking to be more of extensions to the original hotels. That's why they are small 400 room hotels.

I would argue that Disney has been sitting and doing nothing for years at AK, Epcot, and HS. By the time Avatar is open, it will be close to a decade. If Universal grows faster by about a 7% rate or so, which I would expect (assuming nothing new is announced and built), it would only take 3-4 years for them to catch HS and AK.

Again, I would like nothing better than Disney to recognize that trend and reverse it with Star Wars land and other rides, which is the one property they have that could compete head to head and surpass what Universal has done with HP.

I would also be curious to know the average amount of time guests spend in the park. I wouldn't be surprised if the total guest hours in the parks is already equal between the two. So many people do HS and AK as half day parks. Also, average paid admission would be interesting as well. I wonder what percentage of HS and AK are 4-7 day ticket, vs 1-2 day. I bet total gate revenue is pretty close already as well. Now Disney is way ahead in average guest spending, even with HP included. Thats a gap that would probably take decades to overtake!

 

[mvk]

I would argue that Disney has been sitting and doing nothing for years at AK, Epcot, and HS. By the time Avatar is open, it will be close to a decade. If Universal grows faster by about a 7% rate or so, which I would expect (assuming nothing new is announced and built), it would only take 3-4 years for them to catch HS and AK.

Again, I would like nothing better than Disney to recognize that trend and reverse it with Star Wars land and other rides, which is the one property they have that could compete head to head and surpass what Universal has done with HP.

I would also be curious to know the average amount of time guests spend in the park. I wouldn't be surprised if the total guest hours in the parks is already equal between the two. So many people do HS and AK as half day parks. Also, average paid admission would be interesting as well. I wonder what percentage of HS and AK are 4-7 day ticket, vs 1-2 day. I bet total gate revenue is pretty close already as well. Now Disney is way ahead in average guest spending, even with HP included. Thats a gap that would probably take decades to overtake!

I don't know why you expect USF or IOA to grow at a rate of 7% more than DHS or AK. Last year, IOA, DHS, and AK all grew 2%. In 2012, IOA grew 4% while DHS and AK grew 2.2%, and USF grew 2.5%. Thinking Universal is going to sustain 7% higher growth than Disney year after year is probably foolish at best.

Even with larger percentage increases, Disney is growing by more total bodies thru the gates than Universal is. Case in point, Epcot grew 1.5% in 2013 compared to 2.0% for IOA. But Epcot had 166,000 more guests than the previous year, compared to 160,000 more for IOA. DHS grew 2.0%, same as IOA, but had 198,000 more guests. AK also grew 2.0%, but had 200,000 more guests.

Which 2.0% would you rather have, IOA gaining 160,000 guests, DHS gaining 198,000 guests, or AK gaining 200,000 guests?

Those thinking Universal is gaining on Walt Disney World in any way, shape, or form are off.

The Magic Kingdom, by the way, grew by 6% last year, with an additional 1,052,000 guests.

 

[rteetz]

I don't know why you expect USF or IOA to grow at a rate of 7% more than DHS or AK. Last year, IOA, DHS, and AK all grew 2%. In 2012, IOA grew 4% while DHS and AK grew 2.2%, and USF grew 2.5%. Thinking Universal is going to sustain 7% higher growth than Disney year after year is probably foolish at best.

Even with larger percentage increases, Disney is growing by more total bodies thru the gates than Universal is. Case in point, Epcot grew 1.5% in 2013 compared to 2.0% for IOA. But Epcot had 166,000 more guests than the previous year, compared to 160,000 more for IOA. DHS grew 2.0%, same as IOA, but had 198,000 more guests. AK also grew 2.0%, but had 200,000 more guests.

Which 2.0% would you rather have, IOA gaining 160,000 guests, DHS gaining 198,000 guests, or AK gaining 200,000 guests?


Those thinking Universal is gaining on Walt Disney World in any way, shape, or form are off.

The Magic Kingdom, by the way, grew by 6% last year, with an additional 1,052,000 guests.

With these numbers we also have to look at capacity. DHS, UOR, and IOA are all around the same amount when it comes to capacity they are very similar in size. AK, Epcot, and MK are all much larger hence normally bigger numbers. DHS has space to grow while UOR, and IOA don't have as much. All of theses parks will see an increase next year. I also think the two universal parks will see a larger increase than the disney parks but will they be able to sustain a 7% or so growth every year I don't know. The numbers that are posted are also estimates neither company releases real numbers.

 

[ahoyle]

I don't know why you expect USF or IOA to grow at a rate of 7% more than DHS or AK. Last year, IOA, DHS, and AK all grew 2%. In 2012, IOA grew 4% while DHS and AK grew 2.2%, and USF grew 2.5%. Thinking Universal is going to sustain 7% higher growth than Disney year after year is probably foolish at best.

Even with larger percentage increases, Disney is growing by more total bodies thru the gates than Universal is. Case in point, Epcot grew 1.5% in 2013 compared to 2.0% for IOA. But Epcot had 166,000 more guests than the previous year, compared to 160,000 more for IOA. DHS grew 2.0%, same as IOA, but had 198,000 more guests. AK also grew 2.0%, but had 200,000 more guests.

Which 2.0% would you rather have, IOA gaining 160,000 guests, DHS gaining 198,000 guests, or AK gaining 200,000 guests?

Those thinking Universal is gaining on Walt Disney World in any way, shape, or form are off.

The Magic Kingdom, by the way, grew by 6% last year, with an additional 1,052,000 guests.

I never mentioned Magic Kingdom in anything. I agree its untouchable. And the only reason I even brought this up was because I hope it causes Disney to speed up development.

Also, US was up 14% last year, so between the two, up 16% total, versus HS and AK, up 4% total. So average they are up 6% more than the others. And its a fact that Universal has grown faster than Disney since the HP was first built. You can twist the numbers however you want, but anything with a higher % growth rate will eventually pass something with a lower percentage, its just a question of time.

And I expect the 7% figure to come from increased attendance from the hotel and new HP stuff, which from everything I've read has blown people away. Meanwhile, everyone I know that has ridden the Mine Train is like ***, that took 3 years? I also expect US to open new Jurassic Park stuff to coincide with the movie, and rumors of a water park, and King Kong. I expect all of that before I see Avatar complete.

So based off what I know Universal is doing, and know Disney is doing, I think Universal will continue to grow faster. Could be completely wrong, and I just pulled 7% out of thin air as an example, but the fact remains they have grown faster in the past few years and I don't see anything reversing that trend for the next few years.

 

[rteetz]

I never mentioned Magic Kingdom in anything. I agree its untouchable. And the only reason I even brought this up was because I hope it causes Disney to speed up development. Also, US was up 14% last year, so between the two, up 16% total, versus HS and AK, up 4% total. So average they are up 6% more than the others. And its a fact that Universal has grown faster than Disney since the HP was first built. You can twist the numbers however you want, but anything with a higher % growth rate will eventually pass something with a lower percentage, its just a question of time. And I expect the 7% figure to come from increased attendance from the hotel and new HP stuff, which from everything I've read has blown people away. Meanwhile, everyone I know that has ridden the Mine Train is like ***, that took 3 years? I also expect US to open new Jurassic Park stuff to coincide with the movie, and rumors of a water park, and King Kong. I expect all of that before I see Avatar complete. So based off what I know Universal is doing, and know Disney is doing, I think Universal will continue to grow faster. Could be completely wrong, and I just pulled 7% out of thin air as an example, but the fact remains they have grown faster in the past few years and I don't see anything reversing that trend for the next few years.

I think Universal could get close to AK and DHS but not Epcot thats almost 2 million more than the other two. Kong construction is going on as we speak sits shown in pictures all over the internet. Universal will eventually stop going at such a rapid pace and whose to say disney won't start or be in a large expansion phase at that point. Disney springs and avatar are underway. FLE just finished, Epcot and DHS are due I'm sure that will come soon at least I hope. And the. What's next for MK?