Is now the time to buy Poly resale?

[AstroBlasters]

Confirmation Bias:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Con...se coined,difficult to dislodge once affirmed.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

That's fine if it's not black and white or whatever, it's their company they can announce whenever they feel like it. So why make a statement that makes it sound like it is actually decided (maybe, sort of, if we don't change our minds)?? Just say it hasn't been decided or they're not ready to announce it. Easy. No need for poorly worded vague answers to direct questions. Their messaging is inarguably unclear and ambiguous, when it doesn't need to be.

Why did Disney cancel Reflections ?

They had money in the ground,
They were 12 or 18 months from opening.

Do you remember when Disney abandoned phase 2 of the pop century?

Trying to figure out why Disney does unexplainable things can give you a migraine…

But it makes for free marketing

 

[tjkraz]

That's fine if it's not black and white or whatever, it's their company they can announce whenever they feel like it. So why make a statement that makes it sound like it is actually decided (maybe, sort of, if we don't change our minds)?? Just say it hasn't been decided or they're not ready to announce it. Easy. No need for poorly worded vague answers to direct questions. Their messaging is inarguably unclear and ambiguous, when it doesn't need to be.

They've also consistently referred to the Poly Tower and Ft Wilderness Cabins as "proposed" destinations. The degree of ambiguity is exactly the same. People just choose to view it differently. ("I can see the building so obviously it's happening" vs "the word choice was questionable so clearly they're trying to deceive me.")

Do we really want to return to the days when the 2-year response questions about the under-construction Bay Lake Tower was "what new DVC building? I don't see any DVC building." People want answers. They got the best answer a (non-lawyer) board member was willing and able to give. I don't see the point in splitting hairs over that answer.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

To be fair, I said “They made a statement at an official event with recorded minutes”. Not that the Q&A was part of the minutes.

The distinction is that the people on stage were at a scripted and rehearsed meeting where they had been prepped by lawyers about exactly what they could and couldn’t say on a variety of subjects….this was not a one off on a Member Cruise after some people had enjoyed a few Dole Whips with rum….

If the executives saw the headlines the next day that read

BREAKING: NEW Polynesian DVC Tower to Join Existing Condo Association!​

on DVC news sites, Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, etc and it wasn’t exactly how they understood it then they could have put out a notice to walk all or some of it back. They didnt.

Because every thing on Facebook, instragram, you tube are alway right…..

Oh wait my Nigerian prince is calling to give me 27.7 million dollars,

Once I send him 2000 dollars I’ll buy the whole tower

 

[PolyRob]

Three reasons:
1) Because things happen which derail even the most stable plans. Like the global pandemic which halted Reflections despite the fact that Disney had surely invested millions of dollars and even started physical construction!

2) Because the only party who truly stands to benefit from an announcement now are those who want to try and buy resale points now before the market shifts. And DVC doesn't benefit from that. If you're a current owner or prospective direct buyer, sure it might be nice to know. But ultimately it doesn't matter much whether you find out today or on the day sales opens.

3) Because it's literally not "black and white". The condo association hasn't been amended to add the building yet.

Every discussion of this deserves to include the disclaimer "current plan"...because that's exactly what they said. Because the ink isn't dry and yes, theoretically, something could happen out of left field to alter the plans.

But arguing that they misspoke or were being deliberately deceptive--as some have done--strikes me as contrarian for the sake of being contrarian. In this case, "I'm right and the rest of you are wrong" is a curious hill to die on.

My only gripe with this is VGF was announced as the same association on day one. No uncertainty or mixing words and it was in an official press release.

“This is great news for Disney Vacation Club and our Members,” said Terri Schultz, senior vice president, Disney Vacation Club. “It will provide us with new and diverse inventory at a resort that is cherished by our Members and their families.”

Located on the shores of Seven Seas Lagoon and on the monorail line to Magic Kingdom Park, the proposed project will transform Big Pine Key (building nine) at Disney’s Grand Floridian Resort & Spa into approximately 200 Resort Studios, accommodating up to five Guests.

Featuring the Victorian elegance and charm of Disney’s Grand Floridian Resort, these new Villas will offer Members luxury accommodations and amenities, with some Villas boasting stunning views of Bay Lake and Magic Kingdom. Projected to open in summer 2022, these new Villas are an expansion of The Villas at Disney’s Grand Floridian Resort and will be a part of its current condominium association. Information regarding the start of sales and rental bookings will be released at a later date.

Since 2013, Members have reveled in the Victorian splendor of The Villas at Disney's Grand Floridian Resort & Spa, enjoying the comforts of home, impeccable service, amenities and fun-in-the-sun recreation available at Disney's Grand Floridian Resort & Spa. The Villas at Disney’s Grand Floridian Resort & Spa currently has 100 Disney Vacation Club homes and offers a mix of accommodation styles, ranging from Deluxe Studios to three-bedroom Grand Villas."

https://dvcnews.com/wdw-resorts/gra...acation-club-to-add-villas-at-grand-floridian

 

[tjkraz]

...the proposed project will transform Big Pine Key...

"Proposed project."

i.e. "our plan right now."

i.e. the exact same thing as with Poly. If you want to split hairs, the difference is you won't currently find the Poly comments in writing on the DVC website...accompanied by the same disclaimers. Though members are getting written confirmation from Guides.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Because every thing on Facebook, instragram, you tube are alway right…..

Oh wait my Nigerian prince is calling to give me 27.7 million dollars,

Once I send him 2000 dollars I’ll buy the whole tower

So, you think DVC executives don’t have social media alerts with regards to their business? You think that is the same thing as a Nigerian Prince scam?

Ok….

 

[Robbie Cottam]

So, you think DVC executives don’t have social media alerts with regards to their business? You think that is the same thing as a Nigerian Prince scam?

Ok….

No,

I was poking fun at the fact so many people think because it was published on the internet it had to be true….

I actually, think it was a very calculated statement, that doesn’t tie Disney’s hands at all.

Regardless,
Disney is getting free publicity, and free market research….

With absolutely no downside if they change their minds.

 

[PolyRob]

"Proposed project."

i.e. "our plan right now."

i.e. the exact same thing as with Poly. If you want to split hairs, the difference is you won't currently find the Poly comments in writing on the DVC website...accompanied by the same disclaimers. Though members are getting written confirmation from Guides.

Fair, but DVC announced the VGF association in writing on day 1 with the proposed VGF project and Poly was a Q&A where association was not mentioned and "Polynesian Village Resort" was stated. As I mentioned in a previous post we don't know if it's also left open for the possible Trust. If I only wanted the Tower and 75% of points go to the Trust that could make for a harder 11-month (if it even stays this) booking window.

I didn't buy VGF resale right after the announcement and I wouldn't buy PVB right after the announcement. I guess I am risk averse and would rather just pay for exactly what I want when I know it's official and have all the details.

 

[Mai Ku Tiki]

Here is what my guide sent me in an email response to my question on whether or not we would be able to utilize 11 month booking priority at the new tower:

“Thank you for your email! In response to your question about the Polynesian Tower being added to the existing Polynesian Villas and Bungalows Condominium Association, the answer is yes! It has been announced that currently the plans for the proposed Polynesian Tower are to become a part of the existing Disney’s Polynesian Villas and Bungalows.

However, at this time, we do not have any additional information that we can share. We look forward to sharing more in the future!”


There is no true ambiguity to these answers. In fact, seeing how they are being so overtly clear to announce the fact the Cabins at FW will be a new DVC resort makes it even more clear in retrospect that the answer to the question was not in what they did say but in what they did not say.

But if the Trust plan becomes a reality... It may not all shake-out as neatly as your guide stated (& as some of us are assuming, being in the dark about the impact of a TRUST on inventory & booking). Maybe that's the "additional information" referred to which is still very much NOT being announced.

 

[Mai Ku Tiki]

The lingering uncertainty is frustrating. Vague declarations containing phrases like "the current plan".

Why not just make a black-and-white statement?

My guess is bc the TRUST (IF it is an option being explored) might have an important impact on specifics rules regarding inventory.

 

[Sandisw]

I mean— not trying to be offensive but the DVC park representatives are as low level as possible. They are the lowest rung on the ladder.

My guide confirmed it. I shared the email earlier. If they did not mean what they said last week, they would have sent clarification to their guides telling them to shut it down.

That is as basic corporate communication 101 as you could POSSIBLY imagine.

As has been the case throughout this process, the answer has rested not in what they have said/done but what they have not said/done.

Again, this is another example of people seemingly unwilling to accept the writing on the wall. The signs have all pointed to same association all along. They announced an “expansion,” they had slides that said PVB, etc. Now they have said it, the guides are confirming it, and we STILL have people saying it’s not confirmed.

I promise— whether people want to admit it or not— the executives, my guide, etc are more qualified to comment on this and be considered credible than the ones on these boards who want to continue arguing about it because they don’t like the answer/can’t admit they’ve been wrong all along after jumping into every single conversation/following up every single post for a year where ANYONE suggested same association to try and make them look uninformed or just generally ignorant/less enlightened.

While they may be low level, they have always been able to answer questions and definitely had enough info about the project and the cabins.

This isn’t about the decision itself but the fact that DVD doesn’t seem to care if people continue to believe the decision has not been made

We do have reports of guides who have now said they can say that is the current plan, but others are still saying nothing offical has come to them.

If they really wanted it to be out there, like they did for VGF. they’d have prepared a slide for the meeting like they did for the cabins or shared it for all members in the website.

They haven’t and that’s because they are okay with people not knowing what was said.

To be clear, I have said I think it’s going to PVB…just not sure there won’t be aspects in relation to this trust and we may see things done differently.

I just thought it was interesting to share that their sales people have no info yet.

 

[tjkraz]

Fair, but DVC announced the VGF association in writing on day 1 with the proposed VGF project and Poly was a Q&A where association was not mentioned and "Polynesian Village Resort" was stated.

Again, I'd call that splitting hairs. I was in the room. I heard the question and the answer. It was pretty obvious to me (and seemingly many others) what was being said, even if the exact phrasing doesn't line up with what some others wanted to read. People have shared their email correspondence from DVC guides which clearly says "same association."

As I mentioned in a previous post we don't know if it's also left open for the possible Trust. If I only wanted the Tower and 75% of points go to the Trust that could make for a harder 11-month (if it even stays this) booking window.

I didn't buy VGF resale right after the announcement and I wouldn't buy PVB right after the announcement. I guess I am risk averse and would rather just pay for exactly what I want when I know it's official and have all the details.

Here I definitely agree.

To be clear, I'm not advocating that people run out and buy Poly resale points assuming they will have free and clear access to the tower. There are many, many things which could be revealed in the coming months which run counter to people's expectations. That was true of Grand Floridian when things like the points charts were unknown until days before sales opened.

I still think the prevailing narrative that "she said 'resort' not 'association'" is silly. And the fact that Chang included verbal disclaimers during one on one conversations is not the least bit surprising.

Both of these things CAN be true:
- The tower is part of the PVB association
- Certain elements of booking or staying at the tower do not exactly align with what DVC has done in the past.

 

[Royal Consort]

Disney, for some time, have been operating an inconsent business with inconsistent decisions and contradictory actions. It is understandable that DVC members have a variety of interpretations surrounding DVC's aims and intent. If Disney and DVC operated by giving clear and direct statements to the market, following that up with congruent behaviour there would be no disagreement.

My view is that Disney have now communicated their intent. The only barrier to them implementing Poly as the same association is that they are not a trustworthy corporation who can change policies frequently

This comes down to trust. Personally, I don't have much trust in DVC or Disney as a corportation any longer and keep one skeptical eye on everything they do from now on. When they behave in a trustworthy manner over time maybe I will change my view.

 

[HairyChest]

Buy resale now.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Buy resale now.

caveat emptor

 

[BamaGuy44]

They've also consistently referred to the Poly Tower and Ft Wilderness Cabins as "proposed" destinations. The degree of ambiguity is exactly the same. People just choose to view it differently. ("I can see the building so obviously it's happening" vs "the word choice was questionable so clearly they're trying to deceive me.")

Do we really want to return to the days when the 2-year response questions about the under-construction Bay Lake Tower was "what new DVC building? I don't see any DVC building." People want answers. They got the best answer a (non-lawyer) board member was willing and able to give. I don't see the point in splitting hairs over that answer.

I’m not talking about deception, just clarity. That absolutely wasn’t the best answer they could give, the best answer if it’s not decided is “it’s not decided.” If you you think the loophole-y answer they gave is better, I disagree.

 

[Anthony Vito]

To address the original post, assuming something doesn't derail their plans and it is the same association, there's still the real original question of buying now resale versus waiting.

Resale prices do seem to be still on the lower side compared to where they were, but those prices are also based off of the $250 direct price for Poly currently, with no incentives. While direct pricing could end up being close to that by the time they start selling (seems like a pretty big increase to get that high in less than a year - Riviera and Aulani are going up to $225 on 1/30/24), I think it may still be below that. Given the incentives of late, and the incentives when the new VGF section went on sale, it could be still quite a bit lower.

When VGF2 went on sale, it was cheaper than what points were going on resale. Even as of this summer, with the points buyback option, a 150-point VGF contract was under $165 a point ($161, I think) - there were stripped contracts going for the same or more on resale. So if that happens again, will resale drop further, take longer to drop and spend some time as not a good deal, or just not move as a result and resale won't make as much sense for a while? Also, if they are actively selling 3 WDW resorts at that point (Riviera, Cabins, and Poly), will they have to be more aggressive on incentives? Or, will they be less so to push people to the other two by comparison?

I think those are the things to question when looking at the original post and whether to buy resale now or wait.

Edited to add: I personally am more inclined to wait, but I tend to lean towards direct for multiple reasons (not for this article), so I want to see what kind of incentives they're going to offer. We were strongly considering adding on at VGF, but decided to wait and see what happens with Poly. While we may wait even longer (looking at doing a home equity loan to do some major work around the house - finishing basement, redoing kitchen, etc.), right now, we are waiting to see what it will sell for with incentives as well as what the point charts will look like.

 

[Jwaire]

Why did Disney cancel Reflections ?

They had money in the ground,
They were 12 or 18 months from opening.

Do you remember when Disney abandoned phase 2 of the pop century?

Trying to figure out why Disney does unexplainable things can give you a migraine…

But it makes for free marketing

In what world was Reflections 12 or 18 months away from opening?


Credit: bioreconstruct, March 2023

We know why they cancelled Phase 2 of Pop Century, a recession and 9/11. They delayed the opening of Phase 1 of the resort TWO years also and other resorts like Port Orleans French Quarter were closed at same time too.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

In what world was Reflections 12 or 18 months away from opening?

View attachment 818149
Credit: bioreconstruct, March 2023

We know why they cancelled Phase 2 of Pop Century, a recession and 9/11. They delayed the opening of Phase 1 of the resort TWO years also and other resorts like Port Orleans French Quarter were closed at same time too.

do you know what the tower looked like in February?

https://i0.wp.com/dvcfan.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/BioReconstruct-Reflections.jpeg?w=1600&ssl=1

you phone was after they took steps to prevent erosion and seal up the sight.

and if I understand what your are saying about the pop century Disney ‘current plan‘ circa 2000 was two stage and 5000 rooms

however, prior to opening plans changed….

did I understand you correctly?