Is dvc membership a value at the proposed increased prices?

[Missyrose]

We are actually staying in a Pool View Room for the week...sorry I forgot that we paid for 22 single use points so we could upgrade to a pool view. I have compared the rack rate to our DVC several times over the last 10 months to compare our cost and the rack rate cost. My mom is staying in a pool view hotel room and paying for 3 adults in the room(something else DVC members don't have to deal with) and her cost with tax and fees is around $4900 and if they had to pay for the parking it would be another $245. I do realize that we won't have housekeeping and they will, but I think it is still a good way to judge the value of our DVC purchase. We can stay in a studio at BCV for anywhere between 107-134 points except for the Christmas and Spring Break when we would never go anyway, so for for less than 2 years of points we can stay for a week, which would cost us approx $2600+ rack rate, so yes I think 3-4 stays justify the purchase, especailly after staying at Aulani just once.

Could we have saved money by buying resale-sure, but we looked for a contract that fit our needs for several months, even started on a contract but then issues came up with the seller and it didn't go through, so we went direct. I would also like to have the contract and not deal with Dave
or renting from some else which I'm sure alot of people would agree with if they plan to really use their DVC contract. Is it a tremendous savings maybe not, but I think there is still value in DVC even with the increase in cost. Since the price is going up soon, we will be getting our name on a waitlist for more BCV points while we are at Aulani next week.

Erika

Yes, but you appear to be ignoring your maintenance fees in your 3-4 trip "break-even" point. If your MFs are $900 per year, then to use two years worth of points would cost you $1800 PLUS your upfront costs.

 

[Brian Noble]

If you amortized $130 over a 30 year term at 3%, you'd get about $6.60/year allocated to the purchase costs. (3% might be low, but I'm being generous). Add in Dues, and you'd probably be better off renting a stay or transferring from another DVC owner. And, you have the flexibility of only renting the stays you need, rather than committing yourself to the points up front.

Owning would still be better than booking with Disney in most cases, but the payoff horizon is now longer.

 

[intertile]

I think lately asking if DVC is worth the money is more controversial than talking about healthcare, religion, and politics.

Here are the questions you need to answer:
1) Do you vacation at Disney at least once every three years?
2) Do you WANT to stay on property when you vacation at Disney?
3) Do you see yourself continuing to vacation at Disney for at least the next 15 years?

If you answer YES to ALL THREE questions then DVC will be a savings in the long run. If you said no to even 1 of the questions then your better off renting points from a member or going via Disney rack rates.

The reason is very simple. DVD increases the rack rates on a yearly basis. The rack rates have increased at a larger % than inflation historically. DVC also increases point costs. The rack rates have historically increased much faster than the DVC costs. Everything else is meaningless in the conversation. This isn't a comparison of investments. We are comparing vacation money you were going to spend anyway, not money you were going to use to invest in a stock, real estate venture, etc...

 

[SpaceMountain77]

At $165 per point, I could not imaging purchasing points at Bay Lake Tower and staying at any other resort in the DVC system. To me, at this price point, BLT ownership would necessitate a full commitment to vacationing exclusively at this resort, especially if one had financed through Disney.

Also, having read through a number of threads on various Grand Floridian discussion boards, I think that many members are going to be very disappointed with this resort's availability. If the resort goes on sale at $165 per point or higher, do you really think these members will be using their points to stay at AKV, OKW, or SSR?

As prices climb, I suspect there will be greater home resort loyalty.

 

[DizBub]

I think that many members are going to be very disappointed with this resort's availability. If the resort goes on sale at $165 per point or higher, do you really think these members will be using their points to stay at AKV, OKW, or SSR?

I would expect that point requirements for GFV to be extremely high, along the line of BLT MK view or higher. If owners are shut out of staying there they will be looking to use their points at other DVC resorts.....even SSR and OKW. Maybe even getting 2 trips a year versus 1.

 

[erikawolf2004]

Yes, but you appear to be ignoring your maintenance fees in your 3-4 trip "break-even" point. If your MFs are $900 per year, then to use two years worth of points would cost you $1800 PLUS your upfront costs.

How do you figure my MF's are $900 a year for 80 points? For 2013 they are $447.

We like to travel deluxe and to stay in the Epcot area while in DW. We also plan to travel to DW or another Disney property at least every 2 years for the foreseeable future. For our family this was a good purchase and we actually wish we had purchased several trips prior. I guess every family has to make their own decision if it fits their needs or not.

 

[Dean]

I think lately asking if DVC is worth the money is more controversial than talking about healthcare, religion, and politics.

Here are the questions you need to answer:
1) Do you vacation at Disney at least once every three years?
2) Do you WANT to stay on property when you vacation at Disney?
3) Do you see yourself continuing to vacation at Disney for at least the next 15 years?

If you answer YES to ALL THREE questions then DVC will be a savings in the long run. If you said no to even 1 of the questions then your better off renting points from a member or going via Disney rack rates.

The reason is very simple. DVD increases the rack rates on a yearly basis. The rack rates have increased at a larger % than inflation historically. DVC also increases point costs. The rack rates have historically increased much faster than the DVC costs. Everything else is meaningless in the conversation. This isn't a comparison of investments. We are comparing vacation money you were going to spend anyway, not money you were going to use to invest in a stock, real estate venture, etc...

I agree with much of what you say but I would expand it a little. One has to put a significant premium on staying on property and one should be able to "afford it". My definition of afford it is having a very stable and reasonable financial situation and being able to pay cash. I'd also point out that there are others ways to vacation at or near Disney than buying DVC including other resorts at least as nice as DVC, some nicer in many ways IMO. To make that point, over the last few years I'd vacationed at Disney a number of times for a fraction of the cost of using my DVC points. The last time I had more than a single night on points was likely when my daughter got married just over 6 years ago. That trip I had 3 units, a 2 BR SSR by exchange, a 1 BR at SSR using points and a 1 BR BW view for the bride & groom using points. Since that time I think (trying to remember, not deceive) I've only had 1 night using points and that was to get a third night to match up with a free 2 night OKW stay from an issue we had years before. I probably had the certificate letter for the free 2 nights stay close to 10 years before I used it. And I've had more than 20 full week stays during that same 6 yr period though 9 were all at one time for a group trip.

I think we disagree on the idea that all that matters is what Disney charges otherwise. They can get by with a premium to up a point but I think they've already created issues for themselves in the last few years related to cost. That's partly why AKV was available to convert to DVC and why POP was scaled back and delayed. I realize there are other factors as well. Also, while they may have a rack rate, there are always some discounts available of at least 10% and often more.

I expect GF to be the same points costs as BLT for comparable rooms but given they likely can't do MK views, they might generate another view type to compensate so they can have the higher points costs.

 

[ELMC]

We are actually staying in a Pool View Room for the week...sorry I forgot that we paid for 22 single use points so we could upgrade to a pool view. I have compared the rack rate to our DVC several times over the last 10 months to compare our cost and the rack rate cost. My mom is staying in a pool view hotel room and paying for 3 adults in the room(something else DVC members don't have to deal with) and her cost with tax and fees is around $4900 and if they had to pay for the parking it would be another $245. I do realize that we won't have housekeeping and they will, but I think it is still a good way to judge the value of our DVC purchase. We can stay in a studio at BCV for anywhere between 107-134 points except for the Christmas and Spring Break when we would never go anyway, so for for less than 2 years of points we can stay for a week, which would cost us approx $2600+ rack rate, so yes I think 3-4 stays justify the purchase, especailly after staying at Aulani just once.

Could we have saved money by buying resale-sure, but we looked for a contract that fit our needs for several months, even started on a contract but then issues came up with the seller and it didn't go through, so we went direct. I would also like to have the contract and not deal with Dave
or renting from some else which I'm sure alot of people would agree with if they plan to really use their DVC contract. Is it a tremendous savings maybe not, but I think there is still value in DVC even with the increase in cost. Since the price is going up soon, we will be getting our name on a waitlist for more BCV points while we are at Aulani next week.

Erika

I reread my post and it may have come across the wrong way. I'm not trying to question your ownership decision. On an 80 point contract for BCV the reasons to go direct are many. Plus at $115 a point, the gap between direct and resale at BCV is the narrowest of any of the DVC resorts. My issue was with the 3 trip break even analysis, which I do think is a little aggressive. That being said, if you are accustomed to paying rack rates with no discounts, then I can see how purchasing DVC (even direct) could be a huge long term savings for you. I suppose I just saw problems with an analysis that only compared itself to the most expensive possible option (rack rate with no discounts). But again, if that's how you typically travel, then that's the comparison that works for you.

I disagree and expect further price hikes in the near future. Unless we see a fundamental change in how people view Disney, staying on site will always attract a premium.

Of course there will be price hikes in the future, but that doesn't make today's price a good value. Do an honest assessment of the math on a BLT purchase at $165 a point. It's not pretty. I think the long term value left BLT when the price topped the $120pp range.

Disney have a limited potential supply of DVC units and will want to sell points for the highest price they can. They don't have a problem in selling points now.

I completely agree, and I don't see a problem with that. And it might be a fun purchase, a worthwhile purchase, a life changing purchase, an investment in your family's well being...it could be all of those things and more. But you'll have a hard time convincing me that it's a value.

Now that the economy is showing signs of recovery and the stock market is at a new all time high conditions for selling DVC are getting better.

DVC have recently been focusing on higher value luxury resorts and I expect that to continue, the older DVC properties were aimed at a different consumer.

I hold a much more conservative outlook with regards to the economy, so we'll agree to disagree there. But one thing I will agree with you on is that Disney is relatively recession proof.

 

[ELMC]

There is absolutely no question that a resale purchase would yield even greater savings. But there is still tremendous value in DVC to those who naively (or even knowingly) pay the direct prices.

It's also important to mention that the same stay could be had by renting points through David's at a cost of $2,002. I would use this information as a reason to disagree with your statement that there is tremendous value in a direct DVC purchase. I think "tremendous" might be overstating things a bit.

I'm going to back off of this statement a bit. If you compare DVC to rack rates in a vacuum, you are correct. You are getting a room that frequently sells for between $350-$550 for 16-22 points that cost long term about $102-$154 (assuming a $7 cost per point...maintenance fees plus amortized purchase cost). That is in fact a tremendous value.

I guess my problem is in creating a comparison that only uses rack rates as the alternative to purchasing DVC. There are many other options for staying in that DVC room and to me, to leave them out of the analysis is a bit troubling. That's all I'm trying to say.

 

[Dean]

I guess my problem is in creating a comparison that only uses rack rates as the alternative to purchasing DVC. There are many other options for staying in that DVC room and to me, to leave them out of the analysis is a bit troubling. That's all I'm trying to say.

Exactly. All we can do for general comparison is look at facts and figures and make reasonable assumptions. So often people only compare DVC purchase to DVC rack rates. IMO that's the absolutely worst comparison possible. IMO the best comparison assumes that a given party is reasonably aware of ALL the potentially available options including several different discounts, off property, DVC rentals, exchanges, etc. Then you simply compare the person's previous informed choices including usual discounts they've been able to get compared to buying in. That represents any potential cost or savings including the time value of money on the up front cost. Then you also compare the possible added benefits not factored in to costs including the kitchen usage, other discounts, etc. And also the other factors that are negative including long term risks both to the system and individual, loss of housekeeping, extent one is tied to the system, losses if one decides to use non DVC options like DCL and the like. What we can't reasonably compare is one's personal preferences. The problem is that far too many are really not very informed, make inaccurate and unreasonable assumptions and make rash, emotional decisions. How many times recently have we seen someone willing to pay almost double for direct purchases knowing the options based on faith in Disney, lack of patience, etc.

 

[DebbieB]

I just got back from a BLT lake view studio for 5 nights, 105 points. I almost fell over when I looked up the rack rate - $519 plus tax per night! I can't imagine paying more than 50% of that, especially when the room was small. Who seriously pays rack rate?

 

[WMorganS]

Before I share my 2 cents, I should make clear that I'm not objective at all. I just love DVC, Disney, and everything with tiny ears, so I'm sure that slants my perspective. That said...

I value DVC most for making the savings available all the time without the endless bargain hunting. With DVC, I don't need to wrangle and research to find a good deal and an awesome room!

By combining DVC, PaP, and TiW, we can take DVC magic season trips (i.e. when we want) for less than adventure season trips without, even with the best public discount codes.

I haven't evaluated the new prices yet, but even with a 5% opportunity cost, OUR travel patterns mean we break even on ROI in 9 years using the old direct sale prices.

So is DVC still worth it for me? Absolutely. For you? I have no idea ;-)

 

[pinnocchiosdad]

One monkey wrench in trying to figure the benefit of DVC ownership versus rack rates is the frustration of special offers. When we checked out of BLT last week there flyer under our door offering 35% off our next stay. And of course we are unfortunately excluded from free dining promotions which seem to be offered every time we travel.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

Although there are hundreds, if not over a thousand, threads describing the advantage of owning a share in one of the Walt Disney World resorts, with current pricing, I would have to buy at Hilton Head or Vero Beach if I was not already a member.

For me, $26,000 for 200 points (BC, BW, OKW, SSR, VWL) would be more than I would want to spend. Moreover, for $33,000 (200 points @ BLT), I would take my chances with regular resort only discounts or AAA/Starwood incentives at the Dolphin and Swan. Actually, in October 2011 (Food & Wine Fest), I was able to get a theme park view room at the Swan for $205 per night. I believe rooms at the Dolphin were $179, if paid in full upfront.

 

[Missyrose]

One monkey wrench in trying to figure the benefit of DVC ownership versus rack rates is the frustration of special offers. When we checked out of BLT last week there flyer under our door offering 35% off our next stay. And of course we are unfortunately excluded from free dining promotions which seem to be offered every time we travel.

The discounts from Disney appear to be dwindling, though. People used to routinely get 40 percent off deluxes, now that tops out at 35 percent (except for military) and the number of rooms that fall under that discount are much fewer than in the last few years.

And free dining isn't really a "deal," you pay astronomical rack rates for your room so Disney can give you your dining plan for "free." When people rent DVC points, they often figure out that the cost of the room plus adding a dining plan is lower than the room and dining would have been under free dining.

 

[Dean]

One monkey wrench in trying to figure the benefit of DVC ownership versus rack rates is the frustration of special offers. When we checked out of BLT last week there flyer under our door offering 35% off our next stay. And of course we are unfortunately excluded from free dining promotions which seem to be offered every time we travel.

That's why I suggested an in between discount assumption of 20%. Most people can get 10% and 30% is common for FL residents, pass holders and others. Add in the free dining and occasional 30-40% discounts. I also suggested that a person's situation affected the issue and being able to travel off season when such discounts or specials are larger and more likely does affect the decision considerably.

One aspect about timeshares are that they force your hand. This can be good for some, bad for others. The forced vacations, by use or lose, has been a good thing for me personally as there were a number of years before buying in where a long weekend meeting and a long weekend to see family once in the holidays were the extent of time off. OTOH, the forced costs for many are a major issue, esp in the current times.

Although there are hundreds, if not over a thousand, threads describing the advantage of owning a share in one of the Walt Disney World resorts, with current pricing, I would have to buy at Hilton Head or Vero Beach if I was not already a member.

For me, $26,000 for 200 points (BC, BW, OKW, SSR, VWL) would be more than I would want to spend. Moreover, for $33,000 (200 points @ BLT), I would take my chances with regular resort only discounts or AAA/Starwood incentives at the Dolphin and Swan. Actually, in October 2011 (Food & Wine Fest), I was able to get a theme park view room at the Swan for $205 per night. I believe rooms at the Dolphin were $179, if paid in full upfront.

But those are not the only choices. IMO there is the should I seriously consider DVC question, then resale question and the home resort question. You can buy any of the ones in your first paragraph for around $10K to $12K resale for 200 points without giving up a single option of true value. While VB and HH might be cheaper up front, they are not currently cheap enough to make up for the extra fees simply to use for points for WDW. Now if you want to own and use at VB or HH AND use at WDW, the scenario is much different.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

But those are not the only choices. IMO there is the should I seriously consider DVC question, then resale question and the home resort question. You can buy any of the ones in your first paragraph for around $10K to $12K resale for 200 points without giving up a single option of true value. While VB and HH might be cheaper up front, they are not currently cheap enough to make up for the extra fees simply to use for points for WDW. Now if you want to own and use at VB or HH AND use at WDW, the scenario is much different.

Under the current price increase, I would likely purchase Hilton Head and alternate between Hilton Head and Walt Disney World, vacationing at the beach one year and WDW the next.

 

[Dean]

Under the current price increase, I would likely purchase Hilton Head and alternate between Hilton Head and Walt Disney World, vacationing at the beach one year and WDW the next.

How would the price increase affect that decision? The resale price of HH is pretty set right now, overpriced IMO, but fairly stable. Of all the resorts HH makes the least sense to buy retail. It will likely decrease over time, likely fairly linear going forward unless there is some major change to the resort, area or system.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

How would the price increase affect that decision? The resale price of HH is pretty set right now, overpriced IMO, but fairly stable. Of all the resorts HH makes the least sense to buy retail. It will likely decrease over time, likely fairly linear going forward unless there is some major change to the resort, area or system.

Honestly, for me, under the new prices, $15,750 for 150 points at Hilton Head would be preferable to $21,750 for 150 points at Animal Kingdom Villas, direct through Disney.

Again, to answer the original poster's question, yes, the price increases would affect my choice if I was to become a member in today's market.

 

[zavandor]

Also, having read through a number of threads on various Grand Floridian discussion boards, I think that many members are going to be very disappointed with this resort's availability. If the resort goes on sale at $165 per point or higher, do you really think these members will be using their points to stay at AKV, OKW, or SSR?

They might use the points for BLT (to stay in walking distance of MK), Aulani, GFV, or the Poly DVC if they'll build it.
As the number of resorts go up, the availability at 7 months will grow for all resorts, while availability at 6 months and 29 days will go down.

Back to the value topic, I would have never purchased DVC at retails prices. I could afford also to pay cash for retail, but simply it does not make sense for me.
Instead I've bought my points at 50$ pp at SSR, I have booked two weeks in AKV in a value studio and for around the cost I would have paid for a Value, I'll stay in a resort I would have never paid rack rates for.
So it works for me, I'll not "save" money, because I would have gone offsite or in a value without DVC, but I'll stay in a much better resort and I'm very happy.