Is anyone else hugely entertained by the FP+ tier system test?

[aubriee]

Yes, it is technically "possible", but that isn't the same thing as being able to work for that family. For instance, I likely wouldn't pull 8pm fps at 11am, because we would have to leave the park before then to get my daughter to bed for the night. Families with young kids don't always get to stay in the parks that late. I don't know if that is the case for that poster personally, but I wouldn't respond to someone's saying they now have to get there at rope drop and tell them that fps are available day of.like they always have been either. Fp+ has changed distribution and its quite likely that it will cause those who are not eligible for fp+ right now to change their touring style to accommodate it.

I'm the poster she was responding to and no, I too wouldn't pull a FP for that late. Again we are usually only in the parks until around lunch. I normally work night shift and the evenings is when I normally sleep, so even on vacation I am usually in bed early. Making rope drop is easy, since I'm always up in the early hours anyway. Making an 8:00pm fast pass isn't happening.

That was one of the reasons I wasn't happy during my Sept trip. I got to DS at rope drop, rushed to TSM to get a fast pass and still got a return time of like 2:00pm. I have never gotten a return time that late, when I arrived right at park opening. FP+ people had already gotten the early slots and we got what was left over. I never stay in DS until 2:00pm. I normally make rope drop, grab a TSM FP that has like a midmorning return time, then ride it twice standby, run over to Star Tours, then do RnR single rider, then it's time to use the TSM FP. Instead in Sept I got a FP with a 2:00pm return time, then got in the standby line where I waited 55 minutes. Yes, 55 minutes shortly after rope drop. When we finally got to the part of the queue that's right past the log cabin, where the FP people join the line, we saw why the standby line was soooo slow. People with FP+ were having trouble getting their MB's to work. Heck, half of them couldn't even figure out that they had to line the Mickey heads on the bands up with the Mickey head on the scanner. They were holding up not only the fast pass line, but also the stand by line. When I finally got off the ride, I glanced up at the wait time, just to see if I might get a second ride in. The wait time was like 75 minutes at that time. I know it is the most popular ride at DS, but I have never seen wait times that long, that early in the mo

People keep saying it's not going to be that bad, even if you are staying offsite. Well, I experienced it when I was there in Sept and FP+ definitely made my waits longer in both the standby lines and the FP lines and I got to do alot less (ride fewer rides) than I normally do on my trips. Sept is usually slower than May, but we got alot more done and rode more rides in May with shorter waits, than I did on my solo trip in Sept.

 

[MikeandReneePlus5]

I really would not say incessant dire predictions. All this talk of gloom and doom when I just see it as people analyzing a business and then making a decision on wether they want to continue to invest in the company and its products. Not really doom and gloom for that I will read the newspaper! Plenty of that there

I keep going back to the idea that folks look to Disney for guest satisfaction and the company that sets the standards. I do think that for generations they did just that. After taking a trip to Disneyland to see Carsland I will say at times they still do got it!

With that said I am sure GM/Ford came out with a few gems in the 80's too. Yet it did not stop those companies from deteriorating to the brink of a government bailouts/Loans to save the companies. I am sure you could talk to many back in the late 70's and early 80's who would tell you there is no way GM or Ford would ever go under. They invented the car! No one does it like they do. For years (50's-60's) I am sure they were right. Eventually though others came in and saw where they were lacking and filled that niche. Perhaps that is something Universal is doing now? You can only ride on your reputation for so long before the cracks will begin to show. Ford Pinto? anyone

I understand what you are saying but it misses the mark. the discussion was on something different.

the proper analogy would be if average folks with no more than an opinion said that the new fuel injected engines were going to fail (or parking assist, or lane change warnings, etc etc) vs Ford saying the technology was going to be beneficial. without any further info, the credibility would go to Ford.

I think the point of my post was that AIG was the vanguard in its field. If people haven't learned by now to be more circumspect when it comes to their "vanguards," I suppose those folks will never learn (and hopefully are not heavily invested corporate securities).

Moreover, the "anonymous message board posters" are what we refer to in my industry as "customers", and in some cases "shareholders."

As such, they're credible, and entitled to their opinion. In fact, we actually ask our customers for their opinions (and Disney does, too!)

Of course vanguards must be evaluated. Up until now being heavily invested in Disney - which is near an all-time high - has been an excellent decision. Is your point is that FP+ will change that? And you offer as support the fact that AIG failed due to a huge real estate bubble that had been inflated due to easy money policies stemming from prior bubbles?

That seems a bit of a stretch.

I would question your decision to treat anonymous message board posters as credible customers. There are much better and more accurate ways to gauge customer satisfaction, but to each his/her own.

 

[Jeslynb]

I understand what you are saying but it misses the mark. the discussion was on something different.

the proper analogy would be if average folks with no more than an opinion said that the new fuel injected engines were going to fail (or parking assist, or lane change warnings, etc etc) vs Ford saying the technology was going to be beneficial. without any further info, the credibility would go to Ford.




Of course vanguards must be evaluated. Up until now being heavily invested in Disney - which is near an all-time high - has been an excellent decision. Is your point is that FP+ will change that? And you offer as support the fact that AIG failed due to a huge real estate bubble that had been inflated due to easy money policies stemming from prior bubbles?

That seems a bit of a stretch.

I would question your decision to treat anonymous message board posters as credible customers. There are much better and more accurate ways to gauge customer satisfaction, but to each his/her own.

No, my point was what I stated: the fact that corporation is large and established doesn't mean it should be regarded as infallible, so the "Disney would only ever make good business decisions" meme that is so popular here seems naive. Did YOU know about AIG's inflated RE portfolio prior to 2008? The stock was doing great. Until it wasn't.

But listen - you sound like an expert in the way that Disney runs its business, and I'm certainly not, so I'm sure your deference is justified.

It will please you to know, then, that market research for most major corporations includes the analysis of boards like this one. There was an article in the NYT about this just this past September, and one in Crains over the summer. The reason for this is that companies like Disney view the posters as customers - or likely-to-be customers - even if you don't. And if it's credible enough for Disney, which is bigger, stronger and better than AIG ever was by your analysis, maybe it'll be good enough for you.

Regardless, it's certainly good enough for me and I hope to read more from the "anonymous posters" who thus far fail to meet your standards of credibility.

I don't have any opinion about FP+ in general. It seems a small issue when compared to what I would view as broader concerns.

 

[bcrook]

I agree 100% with your points but I would add one more that is causing a lot of pain right now:

How they are conducting this production rollout/test.

Disney lost a lot of credibility with those of us who are in the window of going or planning to go in the very near future by springing the tiering of EPCOT on us mid-stream.

I think they've been been pretty good with presenting the long-term, strategic plan, but not the tactical plan.

They know when/if they're going to tier the next Park and they know when and what is the intended roll-out for AP and off-site. Most of this angst many are having would be manageable if some form of that timeline was presented.

. Totally agree with your comments.

 

[bcrook]

I'd understand if he was doing something worthy of being called an expletive. But all the poor guy is doing is choosing to go on a ride instead of see a parade!

How does that warrant being called an expletive? He's not even blowing bubbles in line!

..... Expletive autocorrect.

 

[robpa]

This is really interesting and adds to my thought that some people may adjust their plans. I know that the DIS is a very small percentage of the visitors to WDW, so the impact may not be felt for others until after they visit. People are still going to go to the parks no matter what FP plan is in place. However, cut backs like this may happen more than Disney would like. I'll be really curious to see the attendance numbers at the end of 2014. The impact of the Harry Potter expansion at Universal Studios will be felt. It's hard to say how much it will hurt Disney, but I doubt their numbers for anything beyond the MK go up in 2014. It's going to be interesting.

Which is the exact opposite response of what Disney was going for. They are driving guests out of the "world" and into "THE WORLD"

 

[Jeslynb]

Which is the exact opposite response of what Disney was going for. They are driving guests out of the "world" and into "THE WORLD"

This would be a good time to sell Disney stock, IMO. It's overvalued at $69/share and will probably settle in at around $65, regardless of any fallout from the new technologies. If those have a negative impact then a bit lower.

It's still doing great overall. I just think it's a little "fluffy."

 

[snykymom]

I was there the last couple of days in September, without FP+ (my resort wasn't participating yet). Without rope drop, which I've never done, we were able to make every one of the headliners we wanted to, either with FP- or standby. I was actually quite surprised.

But I do believe that the standby lines will eventually become longer due to the lack of FP-. Which brings me to my question: If I'm standing in a standby line because I've used my 3 FP+, or my tiered ones, how will I be spending money in restaurants or stores? Which is ostensibly why Disney is rolling out this whole thing. Or are they expecting that I won't get on a long standby ride and will spend money while I'm waiting for my FP+ return time? (For me, that's not going to happen.)

 

[Mad Hattered]

This would be a good time to sell Disney stock, IMO. It's overvalued at $69/share and will probably settle in at around $65, regardless of any fallout from the new technologies. If those have a negative impact than a bit lower.

It's still doing great overall. I just think it's a little "fluffy."

What do think about their buybacks?

 

[robpa]

This would be a good time to sell Disney stock, IMO. It's overvalued at $69/share and will probably settle in at around $65, regardless of any fallout from the new technologies. If those have a negative impact then a bit lower.

It's still doing great overall. I just think it's a little "fluffy."

I don't think any fallout, unless it is monetary, will have much affect on the stock. As long as their earnings are on track the stock should remain unchanged

 

[Jeslynb]

What do think about their buybacks?

I think that announcement, back when it happened, had a lot of analysts scratching their heads. And it contributes to the fluffiness.

I'm not an expert - just what I've read in my general financial "pile" that never seems to get any smaller...

 

[f19810]

I was there the last couple of days in September, without FP+ (my resort wasn't participating yet). Without rope drop, which I've never done, we were able to make every one of the headliners we wanted to, either with FP- or standby. I was actually quite surprised.

But I do believe that the standby lines will eventually become longer due to the lack of FP-. Which brings me to my question: If I'm standing in a standby line because I've used my 3 FP+, or my tiered ones, how will I be spending money in restaurants or stores? Which is ostensibly why Disney is rolling out this whole thing. Or are they expecting that I won't get on a long standby ride and will spend money while I'm waiting for my FP+ return time? (For me, that's not going to happen.)

I also would like somebody to explain to me how this is going to get me to spend more. I thought that one benefit to disney with FP- was that you would spend time in shops or eating while waiting for your ride time. With FP+, I could spend more time at the hotel or fishing, etc. Not spending money. Maybe it is just me. I can see MB making people spend money since it doesn't del like you are spending if you are not using a credit card or cash. But, before you used your room key to do this. Not really any difference.

 

[f19810]

I was there the last couple of days in September, without FP+ (my resort wasn't participating yet). Without rope drop, which I've never done, we were able to make every one of the headliners we wanted to, either with FP- or standby. I was actually quite surprised.

But I do believe that the standby lines will eventually become longer due to the lack of FP-. Which brings me to my question: If I'm standing in a standby line because I've used my 3 FP+, or my tiered ones, how will I be spending money in restaurants or stores? Which is ostensibly why Disney is rolling out this whole thing. Or are they expecting that I won't get on a long standby ride and will spend money while I'm waiting for my FP+ return time? (For me, that's not going to happen.)

I also would like somebody to explain to me how this is going to get me to spend more. I thought that one benefit to disney with FP- was that you would spend time in shops or eating while waiting for your ride time. With FP+, I could spend more time at the hotel or fishing, etc. Not spending money. Maybe it is just me. I can see MB making people spend money since it doesn't del like you are spending if you are not using a credit card or cash. But, before you used your room key to do this. Not really any difference.

 

[MikeandReneePlus5]

No, my point was what I stated: the fact that corporation is large and established doesn't mean it should be regarded as infallible, so the "Disney would only ever make good business decisions" meme that is so popular here seems naive. Did YOU know about AIG's inflated RE portfolio prior to 2008? The stock was doing great. Until it wasn't.

But listen - you sound like an expert in the way that Disney runs its business, and I'm certainly not, so I'm sure your deference is justified.

It will please you to know, then, that market research for most major corporations includes the analysis of boards like this one. There was an article in the NYT about this just this past September, and one in Crains over the summer. The reason for this is that companies like Disney view the posters as customers - or likely-to-be customers - even if you don't. And if it's credible enough for Disney, which is bigger, stronger and better than AIG ever was by your analysis, maybe it'll be good enough for you.

Regardless, it's certainly good enough for me and I hope to read more from the "anonymous posters" who thus far fail to meet your standards of credibility.

I don't have any opinion about FP+ in general. It seems a small issue when compared to what I would view as broader concerns.

Oh I didn't realize your point was that Disney wasn't infallible. I thought you were comparing it to AIG in that it was going to implode. My bad. I agree with you, Disney is definitely not infallible.

 

[MrInfinity]

I also would like somebody to explain to me how this is going to get me to spend more. I thought that one benefit to disney with FP- was that you would spend time in shops or eating while waiting for your ride time. With FP+, I could spend more time at the hotel or fishing, etc. Not spending money. Maybe it is just me. I can see MB making people spend money since it doesn't del like you are spending if you are not using a credit card or cash. But, before you used your room key to do this. Not really any difference.

I think the difference is they're trying to get people who would spend more if they were not in line to be in line less. You, who knew how to optimally utilize FP-, were not that "high-margin" customer. You actually cost Disney a lot in the # of times you rode the ride (each riding of any ride has a known fixed cost) and you do so frequently. Meanwhile more casual travelers who would spend more time at the pool or gift shop buying drinks or nick nacks are standing in line waiting while some low-profit commandos ride over and over. So Disney studied this and figured that getting those ppl on 3 rides (even 1 Tier-1 and 2 Tier-2's) would satiate most of their need to ride rides, make them happy, and get them off doing other things that involve spending more money. Disney is not making this decision willy nilly. I assure you the research is there. It is already proving to raise sales and profit.

 

[AmyB2006]

Yes, it is technically "possible", but that isn't the same thing as being able to work for that family. For instance, I likely wouldn't pull 8pm fps at 11am, because we would have to leave the park before then to get my daughter to bed for the night. Families with young kids don't always get to stay in the parks that late. I don't know if that is the case for that poster personally, but I wouldn't respond to someone's saying they now have to get there at rope drop and tell them that fps are available day of.like they always have been either. Fp+ has changed distribution and its quite likely that it will cause those who are not eligible for fp+ right now to change their touring style to accommodate it.

Well most people are one or the other I would think. If you don't do RD you tend to arrive and stay later. If you don't stay late then you usually are there earlier. She was complaining about having to be at RD so I assumed maybe they stay late. I have young kids too, not a 16 month old, but they love staying out late. They closed MK last week at 1 am and loved it. LOL

Everyone will have to adjust. Somewhere in the middle of "OMG you have to get there at RD every day or else you can't ride anything!!" And "meh...tour the way you always did, there's plenty of FPs to go around even at 5pm with no worry" people will find a happy medium.

I hope.

 

[AmyB2006]

I don't think any fallout, unless it is monetary, will have much affect on the stock. As long as their earnings are on track the stock should remain unchanged

I agree. I think their stock will continue to rise over the long haul.

 

[robpa]

I also would like somebody to explain to me how this is going to get me to spend more. I thought that one benefit to disney with FP- was that you would spend time in shops or eating while waiting for your ride time. With FP+, I could spend more time at the hotel or fishing, etc. Not spending money. Maybe it is just me. I can see MB making people spend money since it doesn't del like you are spending if you are not using a credit card or cash. But, before you used your room key to do this. Not really any difference.

Maybe they are going to set up souvenir and snack stands in the standby queues ?

 

[larryz]

I don't think any fallout, unless it is monetary, will have much affect on the stock. As long as their earnings are on track the stock should remain unchanged

Roger that. Remember, DIS is so much more than just the theme parks.

With Iron Man 4, Avengers 2, Thorarkness and the Star Wars episodes coming up, the movie side will likely be a cash-flow ATM for the next several years.

ABC and ESPN are still doing well (no accounting for taste).

Books, music, Cruise Line, theatrical productions...
it's a vastly integrated entertainment company.

Maybe they are going to set up souvenir and snack stands in the standby queues ?

The way things are going, they'll need to rent tents and sleeping bags in the standby queues.

 

[bcrook]

I think the difference is they're trying to get people who would spend more if they were not in line to be in line less. You, who knew how to optimally utilize FP-, were not that "high-margin" customer. You actually cost Disney a lot in the # of times you rode the ride (each riding of any ride has a known fixed cost) and you do so frequently. Meanwhile more casual travelers who would spend more time at the pool or gift shop buying drinks or nick nacks are standing in line waiting while some low-profit commandos ride over and over. So Disney studied this and figured that getting those ppl on 3 rides (even 1 Tier-1 and 2 Tier-2's) would satiate most of their need to ride rides, make them happy, and get them off doing other things that involve spending more money. Disney is not making this decision willy nilly. I assure you the research is there. It is already proving to raise sales and profit.

Actually Disney execs have said that if people simply use the magic band they will spend on average about 15% more. I am not making that up. They have said this on numerous occasions. The articles can be found on the page linked in my signature if you want to read them. I am a little tired of citing them.