This is a topic very near to me. I have a Senior in High School applying to College now. He can most likely get a free ride to a good Public University on Merit Scholarships, but has the desire and the smarts to do well in a top tier University that may offer substantial need based aid. There would be a gap however that he would need to fill with some loans. Would it worth it for his future to graduate from say a Harvard type College with some debt, or a state school without debt? Would the private give him as advantage in future grad school placement or career? Hard to say, but he will need to make that decision.
First, congrats to your son, he sounds like he has a lot of great options available to him and has worked hard for them.
Regarding choosing a higher optics school, this is one of those things that very much depends on the career path that the person is going for, and even then is still a gamble. I can only speak to myself and my husband, both in STEM fields, but for us there are certainly some advantages to certain schools (not necessarily even the best schools but mostly to do with the connections available at a specific school), mostly related with getting a foot in the door. just a couple examples are below, but I am sure if I asked my colleagues they could come up with more.
1. Recruiting- Many large, well known, companies do on campus recruiting. They use a variety of metrics, based on the performance of their employees that has come from these institutions, to determine which schools to go to, as they obviously can't go to all of them. My husband has done a lot of on campus recruiting, both when he was at his first job (a large multi-national well known consulting firm) and now at his current job (a very well known Silicon Valley tech company). He goes to recruit both for internships and full time employment. If one of these companies goes to your University you have a much better chance of a person actually interacting with you, reviewing your resume, and getting an interview, than if you are just applying to one of these companies on their website. My husband usually spends about 5-7 days at a university, he reviews resumes, gives resume clinics, does coding clinics (he isn't in HR he goes as a software engineer to do the technical aspects of recruiting), interviews students, hosts mixers and dinners for prospective recruits etc., this is a lot of face time with decision makers that you would not get if you didn't have this opportunities at your university. He also meets with the Comp Sci department, and discusses how students from that particular school do with the company, any trends they see, or knowledge gaps, to help inform the curriculum. Is it possible to get a job at one of these companies without this, of course, but it certainly makes it easier to be seen, especially as most graduating students have pretty similar on paper resumes, and most are still figuring out resume building in general.
2. Partnerships- In my field, I work in the biological sciences at a large graduate university, we have partnerships with a couple undergraduate universities that make it much easier for these students to either come to our graduate school, or get hired by us. We specifically and preferentially take students from these undergraduates for volunteer opportunities and internships, and most of our entry level full time employees have come from this. Some of the programs are even more formal, and allow for a seamless transfer from undergrad to our graduate school if the students are accepted into the program. I get dozens of undergraduates each year wanting to volunteer with us, but if you are not from one of these undergrads that we partner with, it is not likely we will have space to accommodate you.
Not specifically related to school but something to always keep in mind in our fields:
3. Connections- At my husband's company the #1 way that non-entry level positions are filled is by referrals from current employees. Many of my husband's classmates have reached out to him for a referral, this is obviously not a guarantee, but could be another foot in the door, it is also not specifically related to school as many of my husband's coworkers from the consulting firm have also asked him for referrals. In my field very similar things happen. Our faculty and staff often bring us CVs of people they went to graduate school with, or worked with in their graduate labs, and we are certainly more likely to consider these people for positions, as we trust our own faculty and staff to understand our needs and who many be the best to fill them.
These are obviously not things that are guaranteed, but may be something to consider. My husband and I chose our undergraduate, in part, because of the opportunities that they offered for job placement and visibility to employers and graduate schools, these were questions that each of us asked when we toured, as we wanted to know what support the school offered, who came into the school for recruiting events, and if that was historically stable. We both felt that the trade off of more debt would be worth it in our specific circumstances (we both still had scholarships and grants that covered a lot of our costs as well, especially considering that, at the time, our undergraduate was the most expensive in the U.S.) . For us, it worked out well, and we have no regrets. We both are still paying some student loans, but they are not a burden, they are direct debited each month, and are really not something we give much thought to.