I have looked at
DVC for years trying to determine if it is a savings or not. We finally bought 50 points two years ago (after 18 years of yearly visits the old fashioned way).
If people want to see my spreadsheet I'll try an post it but others have made good spreadsheets. For us I have concluded that DVC generally speaking has an 8-10 year break-even point if you buy resale with cash. I haven't bothered analyzing a loan. This of course assumes Deluxe resorts.
For most of the years I wasn't willing to tie up a big sum of money hoping that 8-10 years from now I'll start saving money. So, we looked for deals and discounts and went every year while our kids were growing up. Sometimes for 2 weeks at a time. I have zero regrets for not buying years ago.
What caused me to finally buy 50 points is that now that both kids are in college (one done!) -
#1 I don't have to be so careful, and
#2 We know we'll go to Disney each Jan for 5 days from here on out (assuming good health etc)
#3 DVC gets a really good discount on season passes which leads to other nominal discounts.
So, I was able to convert a generic 8-10 year break even point into more like a 4 year break even point on our January yearly trip. We also go in May but I don't use DVC for that just yet...waiting to see.
You can also use common sense to convince yourself that DVC is
at best a nominal savings. Would Disney really have a program (DVC) that costs them huge sums of money? What about Disney would ever indicate that they don't want tons of our money? The Disney "market" is huge and very well managed and you can be certain DVC is a good deal for Disney on balance. They are the best company ever at separating you from your money and making you
feel happy about it! So, the suggestion that DVC is a huge savings just isn't possible (depending on the definition of huge). The "numbers" prove it and so does common sense.
So ... my advice on the subject is that if you have a (nearly) exact vacation scenario that you want to repeat yearly DVC
might save you
some money. Otherwise, go each year anyway but look for good deals.