Very interesting.
I'm thinking the Direct Prices may be getting close to an invisible ceiling.
Even if Resale is not as large a discount as it was in the past, if the Direct price is not affordable a Resale purchase becomes more appealing,
even at only 10, 15, or 20 % below Direct.
Eh. Except for some small contracts used as add-on, I can't really imagine many people buying re-sale if the discount off direct is under 20%, certainly not for 10-15%. Between blue card perks and "unrestricted" points, and simply the easier nature of buying re-sale, that is all worth at least 10-15% premium.
If direct is $35,000 and re-sale was only $5,000 cheaper, at $30,000 -- $5,000 for blue card perks, including return of AP discounts (hopefully), plus use of all current and future resorts, plus getting a fully loaded contract the same day you sign the contract.
Between the newer re-sale restrictions plus some resorts hitting their 20 year window, we are really hitting a new era for re-sale.
The 2042 resorts should start to see their re-sale value decline in comparison to lengthier contracts. The direct pricing is already totally irrational on those resorts. So re-sale discounts will likely remain significantly higher than 20%.
Then you have the 2050-2060 resorts -- likely re-sale value will remain strong. But there will be a growing number of resorts where you can't use the points -- Riviera for now, next the
Disneyland tower, and something else after that.
Then you'll have Riviera and anything newer, with points even more restricted. While I do believe the re-sale restrictions over overrated, they will certainly lead to more than a 20% discount off direct.