In light of Irma...

[AndreaA]

Is it crazy to be thinking of booking mid September next year? I'm considering pushing to last full week or even end of October...

How likely is this to happen THREE years in a row?

 

[spankswife]

50/50 chance


ETA- but I'd probably book it, and just know there's a chance to cancel.

 

[pens4821]

I would say go whenever works for you. It could happen, but if September works better book that. We are planning last week of August next year. We've been going to the Outer banks for 13 years the end of August/beginning of September, and have had to cancel twice because of hurricanes. Yes it does happen, but that's the timeframe/prices that work best for us, so that is when we plan (and why we are planning Disney). We are just aware that we could have to cancel.

The thing about hurricanes and vacations from our experience is they usually only impact a couple days (I'm just talking vacations here, not taking light of the situation and the people that could be impacted personally with loss of life/property/etc). Like this one, if you were leaving Disney by Saturday AM or coming in Tuesday, there are most likely less issues to arise. We've had close calls with hurricanes that have been within a few days, and a week or two of our vacations, but everything gets back to normal in the Outer Banks relatively quickly. However, if your trip is to begin those days or they are in the middle, it changes the entire vacation.

 

[NS8VN]

Having happened two years in a row does not decrease nor increase the odds of it happening a third year. It is like flipping a coin and getting heads twice, despite hitting heads 3 times in a row is only a 12.5% chance the odds of getting heads that third time is still 50%.

Is it crazy for you to book September? Nope. Hurricanes can hit any time during the season, this is just the peak. Just know things could happen and plans could need changed.

 

[perditax]

Only posting this because despite living in Florida for 30 years, this statistic escaped me. I have a trip booked next week.

 

[fla4fun]

I go in September every year, have been for more than 30 years, and have had my trip affected three times. If you skip hurricane season, there will be five months you can't travel. Best to just make sure everything is refundable or buy travel insurance.

 

[luvsJack]

I would go in October if that time works just as well for you. You don't have to worry so much about tropical weather (although there have been very late season storms) and could possibly have cooler temps (no guarantee of that either of course).

 

[Pacolovestacos]

I would go in October if that time works just as well for you. You don't have to worry so much about tropical weather (although there have been very late season storms) and could possibly have cooler temps (no guarantee of that either of course).

October use to be my favorite time but the crowds have become unbearable the past few years. Mid Sep is still good for low crowds.

 

[SaintsManiac]

Still have plans to be there 8/31-9/8 next year for my daughter's birthday. Last trip on our shiny new APs before we take a year off.

 

[luvsJack]

October use to be my favorite time but the crowds have become unbearable the past few years. Mid Sep is still good for low crowds.

Yeah, I forget about the crowds in October. Honestly my favorite time to go is Thanksgiving. Crowded but usually nice weather. I can handle crowds if it's just not so dang hot!

 

[focusondisney]

Several years ago 3 hurricanes hit Florida in 1 year. (2006 maybe?) The year after that, lots of people avoided September. For the last few years, no hurricaine hit Florida. So I think people forgot it can happen & started booking September more. I would bet if Jose also hits central Florida, lots of people will avoid booking next September.

 

[Random Ninja]

Several years ago 3 hurricanes hit Florida in 1 year. (2006 maybe?) The year after that, lots of people avoided September. For the last few years, no hurricaine hit Florida. So I think people forgot it can happen & started booking September more. I would bet if Jose central Florida, lots of people will avoid booking next September.

It was 2004. I lived in Melbourne, FL at the time and had to evacuate twice in less than a month. I'm in Jacksonville now and we're all getting ready for another hurricane; it happens. Those of us who have lived in FL for a while are used to this and have plans on what to do. Disney is actually a popular spot for those on the coast to evacuate to.

Hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30 so anyone wanting to avoid them would have to avoid half a year.

 

[AndreaA]

I'm thinking last full week in September or last week of September into the first week of October (still get free dining and it's over my birthday!) may be a good compromise.

We've gone twice during the first full week of September - three years ago and two years ago - and got lulled into a false sense of security! I just don't want to disappoint my kids two years in a row.

 

[focusondisney]

It was 2004. I lived in Melbourne, FL at the time and had to evacuate twice in less than a month. I'm in Jacksonville now and we're all getting ready for another hurricane; it happens. Those of us who have lived in FL for a while are used to this and have plans on what to do. Disney is actually a popular spot for those on the coast to evacuate to.

Hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30 so anyone wanting to avoid them would have to avoid half a year.

Thanks for correcting the date. I'm sure you remember that like I remember the Blizzard of 77!

 

[stitchrulz]

Several years ago 3 hurricanes hit Florida in 1 year. (2006 maybe?) The year after that, lots of people avoided September. For the last few years, no hurricaine hit Florida. So I think people forgot it can happen & started booking September more. I would bet if Jose central Florida, lots of people will avoid booking next September.

Yes, 2004 -- Charley, Frances and Jeanne.

 

[fla4fun]

Thanks for correcting the date. I'm sure you remember that like I remember the Blizzard of 77!

I remember the blizzard of '77! I was just a kid, but I remember my dad trying to go to work and having to turn around and come home. The neighbors had a hole cut in their house because they were having a fireplace installed and they nearly froze! We didn't know until after the storm, or we would have had them come over.

Unfortunately I also got to experience Charley, Frances and Jeanne . . .as well as worrying about whether another vacation was going to be cancelled by Wilma in 2005. She came through the day befor I was flying out for my first trip to Europe.

 

[DisneyWishes14]

Anytime you go during hurricane season, you risk having your vacation impacted. Even if it isn't hurricane season, you could face a tropical storm (we toured through Debbie in 2013) or other bad weather. There are simply no guarantees. I would plan as best you can and hope for the best.

 

[DeterminedOne]

My husband made the comment perhaps we should not have chosen September for our trip. I explained to him the last time I was there in September there was no hurricane or threat of one. The way I look at it, I cannot plan a trip around the weather. Weather is unpredictable. Crazy weather can happen anywhere, anytime. If I planned things around what may or may not happen I would probably never leave the house out of fear of "something" happening. I say go with works best for you and your family.

 

[robndani]

Only posting this because despite living in Florida for 30 years, this statistic escaped me. I have a trip booked next week.

Sept 10th is my husband's birthday. LOL

 

[robndani]

Webe gone in September for the last 4 years and never had an issue. We went in November and had terrible weather due to Sandy, which hit NJ! You never know.