Ike

[Jenvenza]

I just saw a new model out and now two spaghetti lines are going right through Galveston and Houston.

 

[TigerKat]

I just saw a new model out and now two spaghetti lines are going right through Galveston and Houston.

 

[Gina]

The latest discussion that just came out is making me feel even more nervous. If I'm understanding the dynamics correctly, they expect the track to shift even closer to us -- and then Ike will be influenced by the building ridge and turned more WNW. A high cat 3/low 4 coming right up Galveston Bay is the stuff of nightmares for us.

Here's the discussion:


000
WTNT44 KNHC 102050
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008


THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT IKE HAS TWO WELL-DEFINED
WIND MAXIMA OF ROUGHLY EQUAL STRENGTH. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 93 KT WERE FOUND IN A BAND ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE CENTER. A
DROPSONDE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE CENTER REPORTED LOW-LAYER MEAN
WINDS OF 97 KT...WHICH CORRESPOND TO 82 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE
ADVISORY WINDS ARE SET TO 85 KT ON THIS BASIS. THE LARGE EXPANSE
OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPLAINS THE APPARENT
MISMATCH BETWEEN THE PEAK WINDS AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...INCLUDING LIGHT SHEAR AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE TRACK NOW SUGGEST THAT IKE
MAY ENCOUNTER A COOL EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND MISS A WARM EDDY.
NEVERTHELESS...ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NOW MAKES IKE A MAJOR
HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHER THAN INTERNAL EYEWALL DYNAMICS...WHICH
ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE...I SEE
NO REASON WHY IKE SHOULD WEAKEN APPRECIABLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE TRACK BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IKE APPROACHES A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO
COVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IN TWO DAYS. ALL GUIDANCE TURNS
IKE NORTHWARD TO VARYING DEGREES WITHIN A DAY OR SO OF PROJECTED
LANDFALL. THERE HAS BEEN A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE...MOST NOTABLY THE GFDL AND GFS. IT IS TO BE EXPECTED
THAT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO GUIDANCE FLIP
FLOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. IKE IS A VERY
LARGE HURRICANE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AS
IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COAST...THE EFFECTS OF IKE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE
AREA.

 

[Jenvenza]

Yeah, it is not looking good for the Galveston/Houston area at the moment. All I seem to be doing is watching reports on Ike. My sister lives in Spring and she said they wont be going anywhere no matter what - they have a generator - but I dont know! Spring isnt that far north!

 

[Gina]

Yeah, it is not looking good for the Galveston/Houston area at the moment. All I seem to be doing is watching reports on Ike. My sister lives in Spring and she said they wont be going anywhere no matter what - they have a generator - but I dont know! Spring isnt that far north!

Can I evac to their house? I'm in a mandatory evac zone for a cat 3 or higher. I sure hope it doesn't come to that, though!!!

 

[TigerKat]

Gina & Jenvenza - I'm frightened for y'all, please stay safe, try and book a room headed north.

 

[Jenvenza]

Can I evac to their house? I'm in a mandatory evac zone for a cat 3 or higher. I sure hope it doesn't come to that, though!!!

A fellow Disney lover?? Come on over!! But seriously, I have no idea is Spring is even far enough north to make a difference. Now my mom is telling me to go to Beaumont, but I dont think Beaumont is out of the woods either at the moment.

 

[Jenvenza]

Gina & Jenvenza - I'm frightened for y'all, please stay safe, try and book a room headed north.

Thank you. I know you know what it is like going through these things. It was almost this same time three years ago when we had to leave for Rita. We had a place to go then - now we would have to get a hotel room. But I refuse to ride these things out - not after Rita!

 

[Gina]

Gina & Jenvenza - I'm frightened for y'all, please stay safe, try and book a room headed north.

DS and I are stocked and prepared to handle a cat. 3... if it looks like it's going to be worse than that, then we'll head inland to family in Houston. Not exactly ideal, but better than being this close to the coast. It's the threat of tornadoes that scares me the most -- especially if we're in that dreaded NE quadrant of the storm.

I have so much nervous energy right now, watching and waiting -- After work I'm going to go home and get DS to help me box up anything irreplaceable to have it ready. I love where I live, but this aspect of it is a definite downside...

 

[Jenvenza]

Well, I am off for the evening. I am keeping my fingers crossed things dont get worse tonight. Good luck with everything Gina! And get out if you have to!

 

[Gina]

Well, I am off for the evening. I am keeping my fingers crossed things dont get worse tonight. Good luck with everything Gina! And get out if you have to!

Be safe, Jen!!!

 

[Camping Cat]

Don't wait. Make your reservations at a hotel NOW! They fill up so fast. I called almost a week before Gustav made landfall and still didn't get my first choice of city. Everything was booked up solid. You can always call and cancel if need be. As we were checking out of our hotel in Hattiesburg last Friday, I made ressies for this week just in case Ike headed our way.

 

[TigerKat]

DS and I are stocked and prepared to handle a cat. 3... if it looks like it's going to be worse than that, then we'll head inland to family in Houston. Not exactly ideal, but better than being this close to the coast. It's the threat of tornadoes that scares me the most -- especially if we're in that dreaded NE quadrant of the storm.

I have so much nervous energy right now, watching and waiting -- After work I'm going to go home and get DS to help me box up anything irreplaceable to have it ready. I love where I live, but this aspect of it is a definite downside...

I'll be praying for you but again I'd like to urge you to get out, the tornado threat alone is enough.

 

[TigerKat]

Thank you. I know you know what it is like going through these things. It was almost this same time three years ago when we had to leave for Rita. We had a place to go then - now we would have to get a hotel room. But I refuse to ride these things out - not after Rita!

Try and book a room now please!

 

[AmazingGrace]

We had plans to go west to San Angelo this weekend. We were going to leave Saturday morning, but now we're leaving Friday afternoon.. Everybody, stay safe!!!

 

[Shutterbug]

Ummm have you all seen what Ike did to Cuba?
Seriously...wow!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03JU_ScZJtg

 

[4greatboys]

DS and I are stocked and prepared to handle a cat. 3... if it looks like it's going to be worse than that, then we'll head inland to family in Houston. Not exactly ideal, but better than being this close to the coast. It's the threat of tornadoes that scares me the most -- especially if we're in that dreaded NE quadrant of the storm.

I have so much nervous energy right now, watching and waiting -- After work I'm going to go home and get DS to help me box up anything irreplaceable to have it ready. I love where I live, but this aspect of it is a definite downside...

Our school has already decided to close on Friday. We plan on staying too.

Alicia wasn't too bad here when she hit. If it's stronger than that we might leave but it will be a last resort. I know they say things will be better than when we left for Rita but I'm not so sure.

 

[4greatboys]

Our school district is now closed Thursday and Friday.

 

[Boston Tea Party]

Our school district is now closed Thursday and Friday.

I sure wish that ours would close, at least Friday. I've got a tree that I should have trimmed a LONG time ago... it's right near a very large window and that sucker has shallow roots.

Be safe, everyone.

 

[yankeechick]

ok im freakin out i finally found a hotel room in dallas i was on the phone for 3 hrs well i am really getting nervous. texas just waits to long to make mandatory evacuations ,so that is why the highways are bumper to bumper and also the people who panic and freak out and leave when they don't have a mandatory evacuation.