If the flattening isn't working is it time to face reality?

[mombrontrent]

I didn't say that these stores are not essential. They are. People need to fix things like refrigeration and stoves and hot water tanks. My ex works there and says you can't even walk through the store, almost shoulder to shoulder. People lined up around the corner at the paint counter.

As I've been saying, this social distancing has brought people physically closer to each other than ever.

I live in Ontario and here you have to line up outside six feet apart and they are only letting 50 people in at a time, when one comes out they let another in. Same with grocery stores and any other essential services that remain open.

 

[sam_gordon]

Is it possible the US is doing something right? I don't think anyone can argue that there are probably more Corona virus cases than have been reported, between a lack of testing and those with minor symptoms (or no symptoms) who wouldn't get tested anyway.

But I would think the number of deaths would be fairly accurate. Using the numbers at the time I write this (46,168 cases, 582 deaths), that's a 1.2% death rate. Compared to world wide numbers, 4.3% case death rate. So what are we doing "right"? Spain has slightly less cases (39k), but over five times as many deaths (2696). Italy has about 50% more cases (64k), but over 10 times as many deaths (6k). On the opposite end, Germany has 30k cases and 130 deaths (0.4%). Austria has 25 deaths for 4800 cases (0.5%).

I'm not saying we're over the hump yet and things should return to "normal" tomorrow. But is what we're currently doing "enough" (just keep it going for another 3-4 weeks and then evaluate again)?

 

[BuckeyeBama]

I've been accused of fear mongering and spreading lies by people on these boards when I've brought up fears that this would happen. There are some that think people are all going to band together while we fight this. Realistically, forced isolation along with no jobs and no money is going to lead to an increase in violence.

I don't think that either side is fear mongering, but both sides only seem to be able to see their worries and cast aside the worries of the other side. Both sides are saying that the risk of x outweighs the risk of y. The reality - both sides are right.

We cannot allow millions of Americans to risk death to preserve our economy.
We cannot allow our economy to completely crumble while we self-isolate.

That is why we have a government. We have more wealth in America than the rest of the world. We need to take care of one another through these crises - both of these crises. Both are real. Both need our attention. And both require the intervention of our government.

 

[Boardwalk Jedi]

All of these measures were put in place to slow the progression to the point where the hospitals could keep up. If all of these things still are not working, would it be better to just let it spread so that we develop herd immunity sooner rather than later?

Holy Cow, what? Please tell me you just wanted to get a rise out of people.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

I'm not saying we're over the hump yet and things should return to "normal" tomorrow. But is what we're currently doing "enough" (just keep it going for another 3-4 weeks and then evaluate again)?

I think that is exactly what we should be doing, but our leadership is considering bailing on the current plan before it gets a chance to work. Then you can throw those stats out the window.

Italy has such high death rates because their hospitals are overwhelmed. So far the US has avoided that - so low death rates. That is the key to low death rates.

#flattenthecurve

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Holy Cow, what? Please tell me you just wanted to get a ride out of people.

Many people are now saying this - sacrifice 2.5% of our population for the good of the economy. Let grandma/grandpa die so their grandchildren can buy the latest XBox. Google it. It is happening.

 

[tzolkin]

As I said in another thread, a hospital near me reported a 50% rise in domestic violence and child abuse cases over the last week. As much as some would like to think so, this thing isn't all families bonding together and playing board games.

When I was at the grocery store on Sunday morning every couple I saw was fighting. One woman was even growling at her husband and calling extremely vulgar things that I can't post on the Dis and hit him. It was because she told him that they needed to be there by 10:00 and it was now 10:45 so she was convinced the meat section was empty because they were late.

Obviously lots of people have issues with abuse and relationships regardless of the situation, but I think the stress and financial hardship will definitely increase the tension in many families.

 

[gwynne]

Many people are now saying this - sacrifice 2.5% of our population for the good of the economy. Let grandma/grandpa die so their grandchildren can buy the latest XBox. Google it. It is happening.

And the folks who are now faithfully following this belief system usually discount the fact that all ages get Covid-19.
My opinion-science and statistics are not their strong points.

 

[DopeyDame]

Is it possible the US is doing something right? I don't think anyone can argue that there are probably more Corona virus cases than have been reported, between a lack of testing and those with minor symptoms (or no symptoms) who wouldn't get tested anyway.

But I would think the number of deaths would be fairly accurate. Using the numbers at the time I write this (46,168 cases, 582 deaths), that's a 1.2% death rate. Compared to world wide numbers, 4.3% case death rate. So what are we doing "right"? Spain has slightly less cases (39k), but over five times as many deaths (2696). Italy has about 50% more cases (64k), but over 10 times as many deaths (6k). On the opposite end, Germany has 30k cases and 130 deaths (0.4%). Austria has 25 deaths for 4800 cases (0.5%).

I'm not saying we're over the hump yet and things should return to "normal" tomorrow. But is what we're currently doing "enough" (just keep it going for another 3-4 weeks and then evaluate again)?

I don't think anyone knows at this point, obviously, but from what I've read the areas of Italy that were hardest hit have a really high average age. So more elderly people contracting it means a higher death rate even with identical mitigation and health care. On the flip side, while South Korea deserves a TON of credit for its widespread testing and tracing, they also have the benefit of a much younger population.
I think we're somewhere between the two, demographics-wise.

I am sort of shocked at the schools that are shutting for the entire year already. Like you said, why not keep going for another 3 or 4 weeks and the evaluate? What's the rush to close in May and June already?

 

[SaintsManiac]

Many people are now saying this - sacrifice 2.5% of our population for the good of the economy. Let grandma/grandpa die so their grandchildren can buy the latest XBox. Google it. It is happening.

Absolutely. I read some appalling things yesterday,

 

[morgan98]

I don't think anyone knows at this point, obviously, but from what I've read the areas of Italy that were hardest hit have a really high average age. So more elderly people contracting it means a higher death rate even with identical mitigation and health care. On the flip side, while South Korea deserves a TON of credit for its widespread testing and tracing, they also have the benefit of a much younger population.
I think we're somewhere between the two, demographics-wise.

I am sort of shocked at the schools that are shutting for the entire year already. Like you said, why not keep going for another 3 or 4 weeks and the evaluate? What's the rush to close in May and June already?

The school closing thing really gets me. At some point if we try to get things back online it may happen in certain places sooner than others. And people trying to get back to work is going to be very difficult if everyone now has child care issues on top of everything else.

We need to have a better plan with some short and medium term goals and some consistency. Some schools have only official called off until 04/01 others have called the year.

And 100% agree about Italy - Italy has a VERY OLD population, my mother was born there, my husband has dual Italian citizenship, we go all the time. They have a lot of old people - upper 80s and 90s. If you spend time there in small towns it is VERY obvious about the older people. That demographic has been hit very hard...more comparable to the nursing home that got hit in Washington state quite frankly.

 

[shelemm]

This thread deserves a Surgeon General's Warning: "The amount of ignorance on this thread is harmful to your health."

We are trying to buy ourselves time. Time to catch up for supplies. Time so we don't overwhelm the health care system. Time to learn more about its spread, mortality rates, possible lasting effects (even for survivors). Every country, at some earlier point, had low numbers. We are not 'getting it right.'

This is why there is widespread agreement from people who study these exact problems.

Perhaps there is a place in the world where this became a problem, they ignored it, and it all worked out well for them... but as time goes by I'm finding it harder to imagine.

 

[Mom2Stitch]

We haven't even made it to the 15 day mark yet and they are talking about going back to work. Not all states have even implemented all measures to give it a chance to work. No the US's numbers aren't as bad as other places, but we haven't hit peak yet.

Here in KY over the last couple of weeks we have been gradually going into shelter in place, we started with the schools then bars and restaurants and are now all the way to non essential retail businesses. Governor Beshear has done it calmly and has made a point NOT to call it shelter in place I think in an effort to make us feel better and safer. He has a news conference every day, including weekends, with an update on our numbers and an update on where the state is on getting things like SBA loans, unemployment for self contractors, more testing etc. He is open and honest, but still not sugar coating anything. He says every day that when all of this is over if he is criticized for over reacting and doing too much then he's ok with that because that means our numbers are low. I'm thankful we have him leading us. It's kinda funny people have made lots of memes about him, when asked about it, he just said that humor helps people get through stuff and he doesn't mind.

 

[sam_gordon]

We haven't even made it to the 15 day mark yet and they are talking about going back to work. Not all states have even implemented all measures to give it a chance to work. No the US's numbers aren't as bad as other places, but we haven't hit peak yet.

Here in KY over the last couple of weeks we have been gradually going into shelter in place, we started with the schools then bars and restaurants and are now all the way to non essential retail businesses. Governor Beshear has done it calmly and has made a point NOT to call it shelter in place I think in an effort to make us feel better and safer. He has a news conference every day, including weekends, with an update on our numbers and an update on where the state is on getting things like SBA loans, unemployment for self contractors, more testing etc. He is open and honest, but still not sugar coating anything. He says every day that when all of this is over if he is criticized for over reacting and doing too much then he's ok with that because that means our numbers are low. I'm thankful we have him leading us. It's kinda funny people have made lots of memes about him, when asked about it, he just said that humor helps people get through stuff and he doesn't mind.

I do give him credit. For someone who took over in December, he is doing a great job. I know his family has been politicians for years, but I've still been impressed.

 

[tzolkin]

We haven't even made it to the 15 day mark yet and they are talking about going back to work. Not all states have even implemented all measures to give it a chance to work.

Yes, bars and restaurants here just closed last Tuesday at 5pm so this morning we are not even at a full week yet. They just YESTERDAY decided to shut down other non-essential businesses (gyms, movies, etc.). How would we have any idea if it's working or not if we haven't even been actually doing it?

 

[Mom2Stitch]

I do give him credit. For someone who took over in December, he is doing a great job. I know his family has been politicians for years, but I've still been impressed.

Definitely not a fan of his father, lol, but so far he's knocking it out of the park.

Yes, bars and restaurants here just closed last Tuesday at 5pm so this morning we are not even at a full week yet. They just YESTERDAY decided to shut down other non-essential businesses (gyms, movies, etc.). How would we have any idea if it's working or not if we haven't even been actually doing it?

Exactly! And the more people who decide it's ok for them to bend the rule, be the exception to the rules, or just plain stick their head in the sand, the less it will work.

People going to see cherry blossom trees....really?

Tell me, if this were a threat that people could physically SEE would that make a difference? If we had armed bandits running across the country terrorizing the population would people seek shelter? Do we not seek shelter in severe weather events? Guess what people...If you aren't playing by the rules....YOU have become the bandit or the tornado that is harming people!

 

[dreamin_disney]

Dd and I have been staying home except on Saturday when we had to move her off campus. Hubby is still working so . He has his hand sanitizer and keeping his distance from coworkers. I still haven’t gone to bed so I made him breakfast and he asked for a hot tea he has a slight sore throat. Hopefully it’s just allergies. Everyone in the area is complaining about their allergies and sinuses. I gave him some meds to take. The weather isn’t helping. Oneday it’s cold and rainy, the next day nice , cool and sunny. Later today I will make a veggie soup . Warm soup is always good for the soul .

 

[skyblue17]

I'm really perturbed by this notion floating around that the older generation should just take one for the team, accept this might kill them and go on with life as it was. How many people over 65 would gladly just say "welp, I had a good run!"

 

[BuckeyeBama]

I'm really perturbed by this notion floating around that the older generation should just take one for the team, accept this might kill them and go on with life as it was. How many people over 65 would gladly just say "welp, I had a good run!"

I wish I could say that I am surprised, but people everywhere are saying things like, "more will die from the economy than from this virus". In other words, normally good people have allowed themselves to support an abhorrent idea by believing that more people will die if they don't. They see no alternative but millions of dead, so let it be the old people.

I feel so sad for our nation that our society has evolved into this.

 

[mnrose]

Not only that but I think people seriously underestimate the impact this virus will have on our economy if they "open" everything back up, hospitals become overwhelmed, doctors and nurses start dying in unprecedented numbers, and the death rate climbs. Don't know about you all, but I'm not traveling anywhere anytime soon, shut down or no. I'm waiting till this virus is "under control" whether things are "open" or not. And, I suspect I'm not alone in that thought process. If the infection rate and death rate keep climbing (currently doubling every two days, meaning we'd be on track to hit a million in no time flat), is everyone just going to keep on keeping on? Uh, no. Delusional thinking.