If Disney world closes

[Sandisw]

The expected value on an insurance policy is negative for the insured, positive for the insurer. Its the house and the gambler. In the long run, you WILL lose. Your 200 dollar example illustrates a 20 to 1 payout 200 gets you 4000. Insurance companies know there odd are 30 to 1. Insurance companies MAKE money, they don't lose it. That means the customer loses it.


Disney is being generous in every way.. they just expended annual passes. The refunded cruise fares and cash rooms. They are paying their cast members! This isn't the one and only place there is generosity. They could have not refunded cash rooms canceled less than 4 days out.

But they are being generous here because it doesn't cost them???? That's the reason???? I wonder if royal Caribbeans crews are getting paid

I think the hard thing to understand is that the resorts are owned by us, not Disney, They own one week worth of points. 51 weeks are owned by the rest of us,

So, Disney having decided to change the policy, means that they are simply making the decision on behalf of owners to overload the system with points That normally wouldn’t be there.

Yes, Disney is doing things for cash guests because they are the ones responsible for that side of the business,

DVC is us and the more points that will be there, the more competition for rooms.

In terms of breakage inventory, sure, they could try to pull back inventory, but as already mentioned, it could be bungalows and cabins that are left available.

So, in the end, we, as owners, will need to deal with this down the road. Now, some people, even with holding removed, may be booking within the 60 days anyway,

But, the putting back of borrowed points is what could tip the scales. And, if that happens, then we could be left with a suspension of banking and borrowing.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

I think the hard thing to understand is that the resorts are owned by us, not Disney, They own one week worth of points. 51 weeks are owned by the rest of us,

I understand that. Technically Disney doesn't even own Disney, the shareholders do. (obviously not all shares are outstanding, but about 200 billion dollars worth are owned by public)

So, Disney having decided to change the policy, means that they are simply making the decision on behalf of owners to overload the system with points That normally wouldn’t be there.

They also decided to spend shareholder money and pay the cast members - quite a similar thing - generosity with a resource (in this case money not points) that isn't theirs. (For the record, I am a shareholder and have no issue with them paying the cast members either - but the argument is just as valid)

DVC is us and the more points that will be there, the more competition for rooms.

In terms of breakage inventory, sure, they could try to pull back inventory, but as already mentioned, it could be bungalows and cabins that are left available.

So, in the end, we, as owners, will need to deal with this down the road. Now, some people, even with holding removed, may be booking within the 60 days anyway,

But, the putting back of borrowed points is what could tip the scales. And, if that happens, then we could be left with a suspension of banking and borrowing.

There was breakage long before there were cabins and bungalows, so those 2 categories are not all the breakage. For over 20 years prior to the bungalows there was breakage.

If Disney wants could they not take the (I'm guessing here) 50 percent of DRR that is not declared into inventory for 2021, and make all that available to DVC members instead of cash reservations? That would tip the scales back.
Whether or not they would is an entirely different question, but there are ways for DVC to do this and not hurt members. And Frankly if they did do something like that - let 1/2 of DRR go for a year to rebalance the system as opposed to cash reservations (or whatever the percentage is), the lost revenue will still be nothing compared to what they are losing during this worldwide event.

 

[Sandisw]

I understand that. Technically Disney doesn't even own Disney, the shareholders do. (obviously not all shares are outstanding, but about 200 billion dollars worth are owned by public)



They also decided to spend shareholder money and pay the cast members - quite a similar thing - generosity with a resource (in this case money not points) that isn't theirs. (For the record, I am a shareholder and have no issue with them paying the cast members either - but the argument is just as valid)



There was breakage long before there were cabins and bungalows, so those 2 categories are not all the breakage. For over 20 years prior to the bungalows there was breakage.

If Disney wants could they not take the (I'm guessing here) 50 percent of DRR that is not declared into inventory for 2021, and make all that available to DVC members instead of cash reservations? That would tip the scales back.
Whether or not they would is an entirely different question, but there are ways for DVC to do this and not hurt members. And Frankly if they did do something like that - let 1/2 of DRR go for a year to rebalance the system as opposed to cash reservations (or whatever the percentage is), the lost revenue will still be nothing compared to what they are losing during this worldwide event.

No, they can not offer rooms that have not been declared for use. It would violate the Florida Timeshare law,

Yes, breakage existed before the bungalows, but breakage Is simply rooms not reserved by members 60 days out. So, it’s not extra rooms. The bungalows and cabins are the ones that are last to book so those are the rooms that will be there. Plus, if there is no breakage income, then dues will go up because that is used to offset them.

There are rules and contracts that require things to stay in balance in our timeshare. Any deviation of the rules, technically violates those contracts, and while I may be one who is going to benefit from then lack of holding, I also know that there are consequences and it’s not up to Disney to bail us out. No more than it would be Targets responsibility to help out Walmart.

 

[DVCSunDevil]

I think the fact that MS is being allowed to do what they are is wonderful. But we shouldn’t always expect it will happen.

As you said, having the parks isn’t guaranteed and they could have held to the rules.

Yes, they could have held to the rules and we shouldn’t always expect them to do this. But I personally do think Disney will do what is right in situations like this. The optics would have looked terrible if Disney didn’t bend their policies since literally just about every business in the country is going outside established guidelines, including airlines (some of the toughest policies in all of American business). I think Disney believes that most people understand these are special circumstances and that these accommodations to their policies won’t be repeated under normal conditions.

 

[Sandisw]

Yes, they could have held to the rules and we shouldn’t always expect them to do this. But I personally do think Disney will do what is right in situations like this. The optics would have looked terrible if Disney didn’t bend their policies since literally just about every business in the country is going outside established guidelines, including airlines (some of the toughest policies in all of American business). I think Disney believes that most people understand these are special circumstances and that these accommodations to their policies won’t be repeated under normal conditions.

Not to be labor the point but this is not Disney offering up things to us. They are technically violating the terms of our contract to benefit some members over others, because of this unique circumstance.

They, management of DVC, decided it was in the best interest of the membership to allow the changes, but it is the membership that is responsible for the strain on the system this could cause. And if it does, then We will all be dealing with that down the road.

So, in essence, they made the decision figuring all owners would want this to happen, and be okay with the fall out later,

Granted, it is great they are making the changes, and I am benefiting, but I also am expecting it to impact people’s ability to get rooms down the road and even expect, if this goes on for a longer period of time, to see banking and borrowing suspended,

If that happens, I wonder what members thoughts will be then.

 

[CarolMN]

DVC is obligated to make decisions based on what is best for the membership as a whole.

The conversation between Sandisw and TraderSamWDW & DVCSunDevil illustrate that there is a difference of opinion on what that "best" means in the current situation. It will be interesting to see if opinions change as time passes and we feel the consequences of the decision DVC made.

 

[GoingSince1990]

I did not have a room reserved for March but if I had, I would have been very upset indeed if my returned points had been forced into holding upon cancellation. So while I understand that the policy of allowing returned points for March trips to be returned as normal points instead of holding points may hurt me in terms of future availability, I am perfectly happy to accept this consequence in the interests of sharing the pain as opposed to inflicting a devastating blow only on those unfortunate enough to have booked for March.

 

[CarolynFH]

I’m hoping that maybe Disney (the largest DVC owner) will put fewer of their DVC rooms into the cash reservation side so that other owners can book with the points they’ve had restored to them for the next year or two. I’ve also read FB comments from people having to cancel this spring’s trip and planning to reschedule for November this year. My first thought was “good luck finding availability!” but now I’m wondering whether Disney is taking rooms out of cash inventory and putting them into owner inventory to cover this.

 

[DVCSunDevil]

This is a reply to Sandisw, but the original message didn't copy over:

Yes, it is "careful what you wish for". And this is why I originally thought DVC wouldn't be taking this action...because of the "shortages" it would cause down the line. It's the law of unintended consequences. Knowing that this can/will make it tougher to get reservations next year, I am still OK with DVC taking this action now. They were kind of forced to due to the action being taken by other companies. It could also have a positive influence on rental prices next year...more DVC Members may be unwilling to rent their points because they are taking "make-up" vacations for themselves. And those wanting rent points from DVC members may increase due to trips being cancelled.

At the end of the day, it is what it is. DVC had to take this action. Any negative impact down the road will clear itself over the next use year.

 

[Sandisw]

This is a reply to Sandisw, but the original message didn't copy over:

Yes, it is "careful what you wish for". And this is why I originally thought DVC wouldn't be taking this action...because of the "shortages" it would cause down the line. It's the law of unintended consequences. Knowing that this can/will make it tougher to get reservations next year, I am still OK with DVC taking this action now. They were kind of forced to due to the action being taken by other companies. It could also have a positive influence on rental prices next year...more DVC Members may be unwilling to rent their points because they are taking "make-up" vacations for themselves. And those wanting rent points from DVC members may increase due to trips being cancelled.

At the end of the day, it is what it is. DVC had to take this action. Any negative impact down the road will clear itself over the next use year.

Yes, I actually think there is a good chance that there is going to be negative impact on rentals. Renters are now being faced with a real understanding of what no refunds mean, even if the owner is willing to rebook.

When I talked to CM today, yeah, it sounded like they decided to do this now and deal with fall out later. As long as everyone gets it, then it will be what it will be!

I am more concerned with how they stop this and who will decide how long to waive the penalties.

 

[DVC92]

Having an August use year, my banking period ends at the end of March. I just cancelled my May trip and banked 152 points into the next use year. I rescheduled a visit later summer with 118 previously banked points which I stand to lose. That is just the way it goes since we own DVC. Even without any accommodations, many people will be banking points into their next use year if possible which will add many more points into the system.

 

[DebbieB]

Having an August use year, my banking period ends at the end of March. I just cancelled my May trip and banked 152 points into the next use year. I rescheduled a visit later summer with 118 previously banked points which I stand to lose. That is just the way it goes since we own DVC. Even without any accommodations, many people will be banking points into their next use year if possible which will add many more points into the system.

Some people are upset that they will not bank a second time during this situation. That would really add a lot of points into the system.

 

[CarolynFH]

Some people are upset that they will not bank a second time during this situation. That would really add a lot of points into the system.

Exactly. People who are upset about not being able to bank into the second year don't understand how the system works.