Ian

[dvcgirl67]

Yeah, that is called the Milankovitch cycle, in which the earth's axis varies in it's tilt over a period of about 41,000 years., it's orbital shape varies from more circular to more elliptical over a period of about 100,000 years, and it's axis procession (i.e. wobble) varies over a period of about 20,000 years.

Problem is, the part of that cycle we're in is one in which the global temperature average should be very stable or even cooling.

That's right....and for anyone interested in understanding how scientists know that the rapid warming we're experiencing is not due to "natural cycles".....here's an interesting piece from NASA "Why Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles Can't Explain Earth's Current Warming". https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-c...l-cycles-cant-explain-earths-current-warming/.

The summary paragraph at the end says....Finally, Earth is currently in an interglacial period (a period of milder climate between Ice Ages). If there were no human influences on climate, scientists say Earth’s current orbital positions within the Milankovitch cycles predict our planet should be cooling, not warming, continuing a long-term cooling trend that began 6,000 years ago.

 

[jalapeno_pretzel]

Further, isotope analysis of the excess carbon in our atmosphere points directly to the type of carbon that comes from burning fossil fuels. There's really not much of a debate about it in the scientific community.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Further, isotope analysis of the excess carbon in our atmosphere points directly to the type of carbon that comes from burning fossil fuels. There's really not much of a debate about it in the scientific community.

Right...I've read that too....that there's a "fingerprint" left behind that points clearly to fossil fuels being the culprit in our rapid warming trend. I don't know, but just as a layperson walking this planet for my adult years, it's pretty clear that something is up. And when you think about the typical lifespan of a human being....80-ish years, things should not be getting *this* much worse....*this* quickly.

 

[fla4fun]

The blame game has also begun...saw at article in the NYT saying that evacuation order for Lee County (where the worst of the damage occurred) came over 24 hours later than surrounding counties.

I was very concerned about how late the evacuation orders were issued. I know the path was uncertain until late Monday, or early Tuesday. However, even for the several days that they said it was going to Tampa, the evacuation orders weren’t issued early enough that people weren’t put at risk. It was even more important BECAUSE the path was uncertain. When you have the entire peninsula and part of the panhandle in the cone, that really limits where people can go and be guaranteed they will be safe. No one wants to evacuate only to have the worst of the storm follow them. I had considered evacuating, and I was looking at hotels in the 700-800 mile distance range, away from any possible interaction with the storm. Sometimes it’s just not prudent to wait until the storm makes up its mind before you tell people to leave. I feel the evacuation orders should go out at the time a TS/hurricane watch is issued, not a warning.

I use the Ventusky app to monitor where hurricanes are going. I have to say they nailed Ian’s path several days ahead, when the NHC and all the news outlets were still calling for it to hit north of Tampa. Even if you typically rely on another app, it is a good one to have in your arsenal (I have four I look at in total, but this is my favorite) They have a free version, which I use, or a paid premium version if you want the extras.

 

[luv2cheer92]

Further, isotope analysis of the excess carbon in our atmosphere points directly to the type of carbon that comes from burning fossil fuels. There's really not much of a debate about it in the scientific community.

Too much logic. Some people wouldn't believe scientific evidence if it hit them in the face.

 

[NotUrsula]

This all makes sense for sure. But I think they're also going to have to go "up"....and "way up" if they decide to build on those barrier islands. I read an account today of a woman who lives on Sanibel who decided to stay. Her home was elevated 11 ft and yet the storm surge reached the bottom of her *second* floor balcony. So...that's an 18-20 ft storm surge that they had out there....which is insane.

There is also a limit to how far "up" one can go on those islands. What sells is view, and if you build really tall structures near the water, bye-bye view. (Not to mention that a sand base isn't the greatest substrate for a tall, heavy building. Do that, and we'll all be marveling at the Leaning Towers of Sanibel.)

Barrier islands do best with buildings that are raised about 15 feet and have, at most, 3-4 stories on top of that. Tall enough to get occupants out of the water, but not so tall that they would need to really bend in the wind. A certain amount of periodic loss is something that you have to live with in a location like that; the idea is to minimize damage, but it's nearly impossible to completely prevent it.

 

[dvcgirl67]

There is also a limit to how far "up" one can go on those islands. What sells is view, and if you build really tall structures near the water, bye-bye view. (Not to mention that a sand base isn't the greatest substrate for a tall, heavy building. Do that, and we'll all be marveling at the Leaning Towers of Sanibel.)

Barrier islands do best with buildings that are raised about 15 feet and have, at most, 3-4 stories on top of that. Tall enough to get occupants out of the water, but not so tall that they would need to really bend in the wind. A certain amount of periodic loss is something that you have to live with in a location like that; the idea is to minimize damage, but it's nearly impossible to completely prevent it.

Makes sense, but it sure changes that cool kind of sleepy beach cottage vibe. It happened here with Sandy....and now we have a lot of steely/cement looking boxes up on stilts...anything to live near the water I suppose. Just not very pretty to look at.

 

[TLSnell1981]

Too much logic. Some people wouldn't believe scientific evidence if it hit them in the face.

ITA

 

[mom2rtk]

Makes sense, but it sure changes that cool kind of sleepy beach cottage vibe. It happened here with Sandy....and now we have a lot of steely/cement looking boxes up on stilts...anything to live near the water I suppose. Just not very pretty to look at.

Sanibel has resisted that sort of change for a very long time. I expect to see them resist even now. They will find a way to maintain that same vibe while updating to safer structures. It’s their entire schtick.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Sanabel has resisted that sort of change for a very long time. I expect to see them resist even now. They will find a way to maintain that same vibe while updating to safer structures. It’s their entire schtick.

Interesting...I've never been there. What you're saying though....that will be a fight between the town, the current/future owners and the insurers. I know in my area, after Sandy, many lenders would not issue mortgages to prospective buyers if the house that had been destroyed...or flooded out and repaired....was not raised by 12 feet.

I think that the overhead views of the area don't really reflect the overall destruction of that area. Many of those homes that are still standing are going to be a total loss because the entire first floor flooded out, and at that point it will be out of the homeowners hands if they had a mortgage/insurance. The municipalities may be a bit more lax, but they're not the ones controlled the purse strings.

 

[White Cat]

There are plenty of people with the money to buy and build a home on Sanibel and go uninsured. Don’t see it as a problem.

 

[NotUrsula]

Meanwhile, Babcock Ranch is apparently just fine other than a tree branch or porch fan here or there ... and feeling vindicated.

I'm not a huge fan of the Villages-like layout of the place, nor of slab-built ranch homes, but their rules for homesite prep and materials are a solid step in the right direction.

 

[mom2rtk]

Interesting...I've never been there. What you're saying though....that will be a fight between the town, the current/future owners and the insurers. I know in my area, after Sandy, many lenders would not issue mortgages to prospective buyers if the house that had been destroyed...or flooded out and repaired....was not raised by 12 feet.

I think that the overhead views of the area don't really reflect the overall destruction of that area. Many of those homes that are still standing are going to be a total loss because the entire first floor flooded out, and at that point it will be out of the homeowners hands if they had a mortgage/insurance. The municipalities may be a bit more lax, but they're not the ones controlled the purse strings.

Oh I get it. But I still think they'll find a way to return to something very similar to what they were. It won't be a bunch of high rises and chain restaurants. That's just not what Sanibel was ever about. And I doubt it ever will be.

 

[JLTraveling]

Meanwhile, Babcock Ranch is apparently just fine other than a tree branch or porch fan here or there ... and feeling vindicated.

I'm not a huge fan of the Villages-like layout of the place, nor of slab-built ranch homes, but their rules for homesite prep and materials are a solid step in the right direction.

I was just coming here to post an article I read about Babcock Ranch. It certainly isn't for everyone, but I must say I'm impressed by the forethought. Here's the link for anyone interested:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/02/us/solar-babcock-ranch-florida-hurricane-ian-climate/index.html

 

[easyas123]

Except Babcock Ranch isn’t 100% solar.

Place in Alva (just below lock on River) has electric, waiting for place in Ft Myers to get electricity…folks from power plant were there earlier today checking poles/wires/boxes and whatnot, they said it wouldn’t be long. Still extremely long line at gas stations. I think some of the inhabitants are shell shocked at the enormous destruction in greater Ft Myers area. Counting our lucky stars tonight-

 

[dvcgirl67]

Oh I get it. But I still think they'll find a way to return to something very similar to what they were. It won't be a bunch of high rises and chain restaurants. That's just not what Sanibel was ever about. And I doubt it ever will be.

I hope you're right. Sounds like a lovely place.

 

[mom2rtk]

I hope you're right. Sounds like a lovely place.

It really is. Or was. And I hope so too.






I took pictures of my kids at the small seashell shop every trip. From 1999:



To 2018:

 

[dvcgirl67]

It really is. Or was. And I hope so too.

View attachment 707471

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I took pictures of my kids at the small seashell shop every trip. From 1999:

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To 2018:

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Thhat's so great....that you have those memories .

 

[chicagodisneyfan]

Too much logic. Some people wouldn't believe scientific evidence if it hit them in the face.

Including some people on these boards. I’m always a bit surprised by this.
Not believing in science/faces seems the opposite of what one would expect here. Then again people do love fantasyland.

 

[mom2rtk]

Thhat's so great....that you have those memories .

Years and years of memories. We were there 4 months after Charley hit. That won't be the case this time. I've done grad photos of each of my kids on the beach there. Not happening for college graduation next summer. But so many people lost so much. It's hard to put it all into perspective.