Ian

NotUrsula

DIS Veteran
Joined
Apr 19, 2002
The 5 pm update has shifted the cone further east, putting Sarasota and the Tampa Bay area on the back side of the eye. Ian is now predicted to make landfall near Longboat Key/Charlotte Harbor as a Cat4, but they believe it will weaken quickly. However, due to the slow forward speed, it's carrying a LOT of water, so inland flooding is very likely.

Best local coverage I've found is http://www.wfla.com
 

JLTraveling

DIS Veteran
Joined
Apr 3, 2005
Just a word of caution for everyone riding it out: Do NOT put too much stock in the exact track. These things easily jog by 40 or 50 miles even as they're making landfall. And in a place like Florida, that could mean the difference between getting a bit of wind and rain versus the eye going over your house. So if you're anywhere in the cone, finish up your prep as if you're taking a direct hit, and then hope for the best. Sending you all lots of prayers and pixie dust!
 

HopperFan

"It's a bug-eat-bug world out there, princess."
Joined
Sep 6, 2003
Tornado Warnings have started for S Florida. There are confirmed tornadoes on the ground.

Sometimes folks forget they can spawn lots of tornados. Be aware and keep informed.
 

NotUrsula

DIS Veteran
Joined
Apr 19, 2002
The thing about tornadoes spawned by hurricanes is that, especially for people who came from a place with more typically-formed tornadoes, the rules on what to do are kind of counterintuitive.
For hurricane-formed tornadoes, you want to seek shelter in an interior room (and maybe drag a mattress over your head), but you do NOT want to go underground, even if you can, because if you're underground and a flash flood hits, you won't see it coming, and you can drown in just a couple of minutes.

I've now lived in the Midwest for close to 30 years, but every time that siren sounds and I head for the basement, I get the terrible feeling that I'm about to drown. I grew up less than a mile from the Gulf, and that early training sticks, let me tell ya'. (I was just at the grocery store a little while ago, and I found myself reaching for bags of ice and jars of peanut butter, which I do not need here. Reflex action.)
 

greeneyedchick

Mouseketeer
Joined
Jan 17, 2020
Orange County here, 8 miles north of WDW. Transplant from Canada.
We're kind of calm, well stocked up with water and food... but I just heard several media outlets saying this will be the worst hurricane/storm in FL in 100 years?? Huh?? how? At its worst it'll be a CAT 3.. are they saying there's never been CATs 4 or 5 in FL in 100 years? Looks like the media is exaggerating & being overly dramatic.. this is like their superbowl right now they sound so excited!
For the record, as of now, I'd still take 1-2 hurricanes a year over 6 months of snow, 9 months of cold weather. Any day of the week.. I bleeping love Florida.
Hope this beautiful state doesn't get battered too much by Ian.
Hurricane Andrew was a category 5
 

NotUrsula

DIS Veteran
Joined
Apr 19, 2002
When they say "worst" they are speaking of total effect, including how many people are potentially in the path and how widespread the damage might be. Andrew absolutely flattened
almost everything in it's path, and that was awful, but the path was relatively small. This one will probably have lesser windspeed, but it is a 300-mile wide water bowl, and it's likely to cause a lot more flooding over nearly all of the state if it holds together.

The significance of the most current anticipated path change is that the potential damage is much lessened if Tampa Bay and Sarasota remain on the back side of the eye, because they are the most densely populated areas on the Gulf Coast of Florida. The worst damage from any US hurricane is always on the leading edge in the direction of movement, in this case, E-NE, and if that side impacts large population centers, damage and loss of life will be much worse. (Which is not to say that you can't get major damage/flooding on the back side of the eye; you still do, but generally it is not as bad as on the front. Everything is relative when it comes to hurricanes.)
 
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Bianca and Bernard

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jul 12, 2015
Just FYI

Several counties up here in NE FL are now evacuating certain areas. That's going to add to the traffic mess, both tomorrow and once the storm passes, and the low fuel situation. When I was fueling up on Sunday (only 1/2 tank, as DH filled up on Thursday before work), the station ran out of fuel.

Duval --Zone A

St Johns--Zone A, B, part of F; all of St Augustine

Clay (where I live)--Zone A, B, C, all of Black Creek north and south prongs, and anyone in a mobile or manufactured home.
 

NotUrsula

DIS Veteran
Joined
Apr 19, 2002
Evacuation for this one is going to be so tricky; what I've been hearing from a lot of Emergency Mgmt people is, "Don't try to get completely clear of it, just get to a strong building on higher ground."

Maybe that's because the safest place to go seems to be south, down in the Miami/Dade area, but for a lot of people going that way would mean crossing the storm's path, and they absolutely don't want people stuck in traffic on highways with exponentially increasing winds. This storm is so wide that that scenario is a real threat. I've been looking at traffic cameras in the lower Gulf Coast areas, and the traffic is not nearly what I would have expected. I honestly think that except for the barrier islands, it looks like a lot of people are choosing to stay this time, or at least are not choosing to go very far from home.
 

LYSE

DIS Veteran
Joined
Mar 5, 2017
Just FYI

Several counties up here in NE FL are now evacuating certain areas. That's going to add to the traffic mess, both tomorrow and once the storm passes, and the low fuel situation. When I was fueling up on Sunday (only 1/2 tank, as DH filled up on Thursday before work), the station ran out of fuel.

Duval --Zone A

St Johns--Zone A, B, part of F; all of St Augustine

Clay (where I live)--Zone A, B, C, all of Black Creek north and south prongs, and anyone in a mobile or manufactured home.
I'm in st johns zone B (surrounded by zone A)...well that's a change of plans...already on the way out.

Good luck to everyone!
 

disykat

This person totally gets me
Joined
Jun 5, 2000
My friend in Jacksonville's yard is flooded. Hopefully it won't get into the house. They rowed boats around their neighborhood during Irma and their house didn't flood, so they're probably good.
 

Bianca and Bernard

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jul 12, 2015
My friend in Jacksonville's yard is flooded. Hopefully it won't get into the house. They rowed boats around their neighborhood during Irma and their house didn't flood, so they're probably good.

If it's already flooding, they should probably leave. We haven't even started getting bands yet, just the forward pushing winds.
San Marco and Riverside will absolutely go under water; those areas flood when we get an inch of rain...it's going to be 10+" according to this morning's forecast. Black Creek area too.

Starting to get some winds.
 

EACarlson

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jan 27, 2019
I'm streaming a softball tournament from Melbourne that I'm going down to umpire next week. It's already raining pretty good there. They have postponed all games today and tomorrow. There are over 200 teams and 50 umpires down there.
 

HopperFan

"It's a bug-eat-bug world out there, princess."
Joined
Sep 6, 2003
Just heard Meteorologist say ..

STOP talking about Charley. This is not the wind storm of Charley, this is the magnitude of the storm surge of Katrina. You have to get away from the water!


I live in the northeast but have family in the Orlando and Lake County areas, so I'm following this thread closely.

Hoping you all stay safe and things are able to get back to normal quickly.
Now predicted to go through Orlando, and Orlando area is predicted to lose power.

I'm streaming a softball tournament from Melbourne that I'm going down to umpire next week. It's already raining pretty good there. They have postponed all games today and tomorrow. There are over 200 teams and 50 umpires down there.
That is scary. We are well north of there and mandatory evacuation was 6 am this morning. Obviously we are more in line than they are at the back side of the storm, but still scary for all those there.
 
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fla4fun

DIS Veteran
Joined
Nov 12, 2006
There are so many evacuations going on that they are running out of places to go. On the news they were asking people not to go to shelters if they had any friends or relatives they could stay with. They were advising to use shelters only as a last resort.
 














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