I know most of you will know this info but...

[sjdisneywedding]

Your exact words were: "this isnt the first rumor I have heard about dvc planning begining at the end of 04."

This statement was then followed by my observation that the CR rumors are years old. None of us is privy to any of the planning that goes on behind the scenes. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that they already have cost estimates and proposed layouts for CR villas. Whether it goes further than that remains to be seen.

I am not going to go in circles with you, I said i heard a rumor, how is that my timeline How does that mean i have developed this rumor to start a dvc resort at CR.

If they were so hot to build at the CR, it certainly could have taken precedence.

how did this become"if they were so hot" to build at CR, how does planning in advance, having your next idea in place have anything to do with being in a rush to build something

Yes, but at what rate? Is there really any question that sales could have been BETTER, not to mention more profitable for DVC without the incentives, if the had units ready for occupancy all along?

How in the world can you have a dvc unit ready for occupancy BEFORE ITS EVEN BUILT! They pre determined they were better off selling with incentives now rather than waiting until it was completely finished before they sold anything. They had everyting planned out in advance, they didnt just blindly build advc resort without knowing exactly how they were going to go about selling it to the public

Yes, it ABSOLUTELY can be avoided. The reason discounts were practically unavioidable this time is because DVC has NOTHING else to sell. If BCV points were still available in February or March '04, then yes, they would have sold both resorts at once. But we certainly wouldn't have seen the deep discounting the DVC was forced into because they had NO CURRENT POINTS to sell from September '03 to May '04.

thank you for making my original point about 100 posts ago, its better to have 2 resorts to sell than one. Again I doubt they are being forced into deep discounting.

But, IMO, the vast majority of consumers would still choose CR over SSR, leaving DVC to sit on an inventory of SSR points if both are constructed simultaneously.

C.

again I doubt with everything weve laid out previously they will be being constructed simultaneouslly.

 

[cruise-o-matic]

OK, os they open CRV. What will the point structure be? If it will be *the* destination, then will the villa's go for 1.5-2x's the rate of BCV/BWV/VWL?

 

[OneMoreTry]

If they do build a Contemporary DVC resort, I think they will probably sell a huge chunk of shares to existing members as add-ons. That is if they offer a pre-sale opportunity to us.

I believe that would be the only way I would consider an add-on.

 

[Laurabearz]

If they do build a Contemporary DVC resort, I think they will probably sell a huge chunk of shares to existing members as add-ons. That is if they offer a pre-sale opportunity to us.

I believe that would be the only way I would consider an add-on.

If they offer a presale I forsee many existing members buying a super huge chunk of the points, and then the resale market flooded with their other contracts.....

 

[phyllisnnj]

OK, os they open CRV. What will the point structure be? If it will be *the* destination, then will the villa's go for 1.5-2x's the rate of BCV/BWV/VWL?

I was thinking the same thing in terms of number of points based on the premium destination theory.

I could also see them starting with a much higher initial asking price $125 - $150 per point.

 

[vanstoj]

Does anyone think it is possible that they might shelve phase III of SSR? As many have already stated concerns about the size of this resort and the amenities currently available. You hear that they are selling briskly, but I'm not so sure given that we seem to get a new special offer to purchase additional points in the mail at least every 2 months. If they shelved phase III, this would leave them open to building another smaller resort which might appeal more to existing members and others who prefer a location that is not DTD.

 

[crisi]

I would think the initial offering would be more expensive, and the point structure would be higher. I would think this would be the only way they could balance potential demand.

But I have my doubts that there is truth under here. No doubts DVC would love to build it or it would be wildly successful. Doubts that Disney will let DVC have that prime a piece of real estate.

Part of me wouldn't be surprised to see a non-DVC "suite" hotel put in for families of five to eight using the DVC room template but not sold as a timeshare. The cabins at WL and the cash DVC rooms aren't cutting it for this market - and a lot of those families end up off site.

If it is a DVC resort and they offer presale to members, there is a good chance it will never be offered to the public - depending on the terms.

 

[FamilyGuy]

I am relatively inexperienced compared to some of the above posters in the world of DVC. However, I am HIGHLY confident that if Disney wished to market SSR at the same time as CR, Disney could very easliy find a way to differentiate them enough (in pricing, incentives, dues, points values required to stay, etc) that they could be marketed side by side.

Remember this is Disney we're talking about.... trust me they will find a way to do whatever it is that they wish to.... and the method(s) may or may not come as a surprise to us all....

 

[Doug7856]

Walt Disney World currently offers many room categories from value to deluxe. It is not a far stretch to have various levels of DVC accommodations for sale at the same time. Categories of DVC accommodations already exists (deluxe hotel style to condo style). I can see sales of both options appealing to different tastes and vacation goals.

My guess is that should a CR DVC become available the points per night will be the highest in the system thereby shutting out people who only buy a 150 point contract. Disney does not need to charge more per point than SSR, by just requiring a high per night amount of points they will make this a high cost resort. Also, since DVC members pay for transportation through dues, I'm sure the dues that go to pay for monorail transportation will be high -- WDW may really like the idea of a DVC subsidy of monorail transportation!

The speculation is fun, only time will tell.

 

[spiceycat]

okay I ask my guide about this - her reply - she hadn't heard anything - on her list was Hawaii...

I would love a DVC Contemporary....

but the Contemporary resort is a WDW resort (like DI was) and until WDW is willing to let go of that piece of the Contemporary - DVC can't do anything.

Kept in mind that the Contemporary is the first WDW resort and lots of people (like the board) might be upset if it was part of DVC.

I can hope!!! I really want this rumor to be TRUE!!!!

Now if WDW is willing to let go of that part of the Cont - I see DVC jumping in as soon as possible (before WDW changes it mind) - they have been promising us (its members) a monrail resort for years now - that would a promise kept!!!

of course I had better book my Tower stay shortly - once the Cont becomes part of DVC - no stays in the Tower except CASH.

 

[DrTomorrow]

I am relatively inexperienced compared to some of the above posters in the world of DVC. However, I am HIGHLY confident that if Disney wished to market SSR at the same time as CR, Disney could very easliy find a way to differentiate them enough (in pricing, incentives, dues, points values required to stay, etc) that they could be marketed side by side.

Remember this is Disney we're talking about.... trust me they will find a way to do whatever it is that they wish to.... and the method(s) may or may not come as a surprise to us all....

Well, I'm skeptical (and cynical) enough to doubt Disney's omnipotence . The bigger question, though, is why would they want to market two at once. I tend to agree with tjkraz's timeline, so - if SSR does sell out in 2008/9 - why not wait until then to put VCR on the market? What's so important about getting going on VCR right now that justifies the expense and effort of marketing them both?

IMHO - YMMV

 

[Johnnie Fedora]

Two resorts could be sold at the same time.

Which would you buy: SSR at $95/pt or VCR for $125/pt? After all, you can switch to any DVC resort at 7 months

 

[spiceycat]

I don't doubt that CR would be higher than SSR - but not much - when BCV was announced some here were surprised at how reasonable it was priced.

I think WDW is the key here.

If they let it go (at a high price I am sure) then I think DVC would jump on it quick.

As I say it would kept long time running promises.

as far popularity the BC was and is much more popular with WDW guests than the Cont.

I think that a DVC Cont would really help the Cont in general. BC has not been hurt by DVC the present, neither has the WL.

WHen times are bad - DVC members will continue to come. That has got to help any resort.

 

[DrTomorrow]

Walt Disney World currently offers many room categories from value to deluxe. It is not a far stretch to have various levels of DVC accommodations for sale at the same time. Categories of DVC accommodations already exists (deluxe hotel style to condo style). I can see sales of both options appealing to different tastes and vacation goals.
[...]

True, but it's important to remember that, first and foremost, people who buy points buy into the Disney Vacation Club; the resort they buy into only matters for 11 month priority and MF costs.

Considering that Guides use the "points are good at any DVC Resort" pitch, I'd imagine that it would be difficult to justify a substantial point cost differential to most potential DVC purchasers: "Why are these points $30 more than those points? I thought that they were all the same?" This would mean that Guides would then have to explain - in depth - the true value of the 11/7 month windows....

 

[lllovell]

Almost every post in this thread has made me want to respond. One by one - ack...thank goodness I am not feeling so blabby today

There has been sooooo much speculation about SSR and about how many people are attempting to buy into that resort simply to get into the DVC system. There have also been a lot of threads where I have seen people that are so mad that I bet they broke their keyboard when they typed their reply when "resort bashing" was happening (which usually isn't even bashing, simply the fact that we all love different kinds of places). All the speculation about the 11/7 window has merit to it, because of the obvious number of points to be sold at SSR (upon completion). The rest, well...I just dont see how everyone gets so worked up!

I would not mind a resort on the monorail. It would be fun. BUT, if I want to stay at the Contempory, I call and check discounts and stay there. What I want is to go home. I want a beautiful resort, not a hotel to stay in. I want grounds to stroll around. Its my preference and I would not be interested in buying into CR because I am sure it will "cost" more points to stay there and I am a budgeter, trying to get the max nights out of each stay. All that said, I hope it comes through for so many that really want it. It will also probably help me to get into some of the other resorts that are already fairly busy and hard to get into at the 7 month window!


Oh....and dump those other contracts to buy into CR (if/when)....please Some of us will be standing right there waiting

 

[spiceycat]

yes that makes DVC a wonderful timeshares - each timeshare is a little (or a lot) different from the last.

I can definitely see the SSR advantages to young couples or single - or party going empty nesters.....with PI so close - this resort will become popularity. I don't doubt that at all.

OKW took years to sell out - DVC was selling at the time, VB, HH, and BWV....then when they did the add on - it sold out fast - they were also selling VWL.

If SSR wasn't around - it would be the Eagle points - I really think DVC has less trouble selling the SSR than Eagle points.

However if DVC was ready to built at the Cont this soon - I think it would have been announced at the annual meeting....oh well maybe soon we will heard about this at one of the member meeting.

besides the Cont north wing will be taken down first - if it looks like this wing is coming down - I am sure there will be some DVC who will notice.

although I was surprised that Cont decided to rehab the south wing first - maybe there is hope!

 

[ErinC]

Frankly, I don't know if I would buy CR or not if it were built. I don't buy all these arguements that DVC doesn't want to have multiple resorts to sell at one time. It might also be that if DVC doesn't take the opportunity now while the Contemporary is being offered to them, that they might not have this chance later on. I've read numerous reports that the Contemporary Wings need rehabbing and If DVC doesn't "take them now" and then Disney will go ahead and spend the money to rehab them, and DVC will loose the opportunity? Who knows, I'm just thinking out loud. I think DVC would sell Contemporary points at a slightly higher rate than SSR, and I assume maintenance would be higher, so I would think some would still lean toward SSR for "economic" reasons with sales.

I also have to wonder if DVC has decided to shelf plans for now on phase 3 of SSR. With TJKraz comments about how they quickly announced it, and then we have seen no maps or drawings, maybe they decided that a 3rd phase would make SSR too big. Who knows? I certainly am no expert, but I've been around long enough to remember how those that reported Disney bus drivers telling them that Disney Institute was going to be demolished and turned into DVC units got written off as "nuts". Look who's laughing Now! We sure have heard this rumor several times, I'd love for it to be true, I'm always up for more DVC options!

 

[Happy Birthday Cat]

I don't doubt that CR would be higher than SSR - but not much - when BCV was announced some here were surprised at how reasonable it was priced.

I was one of the ones surprised at the BCV pricing but it came on the market soon after 9/11 and the whole tourism industry got hit pretty hard. There were some predictions on these boards that the BCV was going to be the first to hit the $100.00 per point mark. But that was before 9/11.

If the VCR comes on line and has the same time length to its contract as SSR, it will break the $100.00 mark easily.

I'm one of the ones that thinks it will happen eventually due to Disney habit lately of building DVC in places where there is already infastructure in place. The last three DVC resorts fit that bill and I have little doubt that a future one will too.

If Disney built a VCR, could they shift some of the cost of things like the monorail to DVC? If so, that would be another big incentive for them to do it.

HBC

 

[spiceycat]

future costs yes - so the transportation costs for the Cont as a whole would go down with a DVC Cont. but also Cont would lose some of its rooms. I think they would balance.

 

[sjdisneywedding]

Well, I'm skeptical (and cynical) enough to doubt Disney's omnipotence . The bigger question, though, is why would they want to market two at once. I tend to agree with tjkraz's timeline, so - if SSR does sell out in 2008/9 - why not wait until then to put VCR on the market? What's so important about getting going on VCR right now that justifies the expense and effort of marketing them both?

IMHO - YMMV

Question goes both ways. Why wait when you can sell it now? Why not share marketing costs between the 2 instead of soley marketing SSR and then soley marketing CR. Why not attract as many people as possible and have 2 options available to offer to please as many of those people as possible? Person A may buy either, person B may only be interested in SSR, person C may only be interested in CR.
With 2 options all 3 people may be interested.