I am starting to question the Crowd prediction sites

[Kristine316]

ITA.

Additionally, I think complaining about free advice that you get from one of those sites (which is also ad-free, so presumably no revenue is coming in from it) is a little bizarre, but that's just me.

I made it a point to say that I wasn't trying to be critical or attack any of the prediction websites. So much of their information is invaluable.. and I wrote that in my original post. One of the sites I was referring to is NOT free.. so I guess it isn't so bizarre to question a service a customer pays for.

I certainly did not expect everyone to understand where I was coming from but, I certainly also did not expect someone to call my thoughts.. "bizarre".

I simply wanted to pose a question and have a discussion about whether or not the predictions have actually been inaccurate lately and also to pose a question if these sites have indeed been inaccurate what could be the reason behind that. I have found in the past they have been pretty accurate and have felt this is more of a recent issue.

 

[fbb]

The MK could close for capacity every day of the year, and a month of days would still be rated '1'. The levels arent relative to what crowds were in 2008.

 

[DSLRuser]

disney has entire teams and loads of cash with one job to do. Make every park be as close to capacity every day. period.

we go expecting every day to be an "11", and are happy with what ever we get.

I survived disney on the 99-00 new years eve. shoulder to shoulder for 17 hours.

 

[mesaboy2]

I made it a point to say that I wasn't trying to be critical or attack any of the prediction websites. So much of their information is invaluable.. and I wrote that in my original post. One of the sites I was referring to is NOT free.. so I guess it isn't so bizarre to question a service a customer pays for. I certainly did not expect everyone to understand where I was coming from but, I certainly also did not expect someone to call my thoughts.. "bizarre". I simply wanted to pose a question and have a discussion about whether or not the predictions have actually been inaccurate lately and also to pose a question if these sites have indeed been inaccurate what could be the reason behind that. I have found in the past they have been pretty accurate and have felt this is more of a recent issue.

Because of #2 in my original reply, "inaccurate" is pretty darn hard to define. Therefore there is no real basis to prove your theory one way or the other. Until the day Disney releases actual numbers this is, as it always has been, an extremely subjective discussion based on anecdotal evidence and one's own definition of "crowded".

 

[Punzie]

ITA.

Additionally, I think complaining about free advice that you get from one of those sites (which is also ad-free, so presumably no revenue is coming in from it) is a little bizarre, but that's just me.

A bit much, I don't think it was so much a complaint as an inquiry - and a valid one. I don't think any disparaging remarks were made about the forecastors either. Just wondering what may be causing the more consistent inaccurate predictions.

Do the predictions line up with the disney app? Is it even accurate? Mine seemed to in Sept.

We picked our parks somewhat on crowds but also we want to see wishes etc so we aren't going to avoid the parks all week when they have that. We do like meh (though its value for us has diminished the last two years and so we will try and transform into rope droppers next time)

 

[winthropf]

This winter has been one of the coldest for longest in a large part of the country. There are people who are doing the "Let's get out of the cold and go to Florida" bit which has increased the crowd level. The extreme temperature effect in the rest of the country is not factored into the crowd estimates.

 

[Missyrose]

One thing to remember is those crowd numbers have nothing to do with how crowded a park feels and everything to do with ride wait times. We've had October trips where a park was rated a "4" for the day, felt absolutely packed, but the wait times weren't at all out of whack for a "4" day.

If you read the blog posts on how they did on their predictions from last week, they mention that the wait times for the headliners aren't up by much, but the wait times for the secondary rides have skyrocketed (Jungle. Cruise, Pirates, etc.). They're collecting more data over a longer period of time to determine how this new pattern will change the predictions, but since their predictions are based on a truckload of historical data, they're not ready to draw a solid conclusion yet.

Feel free to call me an apologist, but I just thought someone should at least report what they're saying on the issue.

 

[Mrs. Ciz]

One thing to remember is those crowd numbers have nothing to do with how crowded a park feels and everything to do with ride wait times. We've had October trips where a park was rated a "4" for the day, felt absolutely packed, but the wait times weren't at all out of whack for a "4" day.

If you read the blog posts on how they did on their predictions from last week, they mention that the wait times for the headliners aren't up by much, but the wait times for the secondary rides have skyrocketed (Jungle. Cruise, Pirates, etc.). They're collecting more data over a longer period of time to determine how this new pattern will change the predictions, but since their predictions are based on a truckload of historical data, they're not ready to draw a solid conclusion yet.

Feel free to call me an apologist, but I just thought someone should at least report what they're saying on the issue.

You said exactly what I was trying to say only you said it so much better than I did. Thank you Missyrose!

 

[ariel326]

When we went in January it all the crowd predictors we looked at said to go to HS on the day we went. They all said it was a green day to go, even easywdw. The 2 days before that had been marked as red days.

But the day we went it turned out to be a Red day - I refreshed my app and it changed. Looking back, I know why it changed. The weather. It had been unseasonably cold the days before. Like in the 50's. So it is possible that not as many people went to HS those days. But the day we went, it was in the 60's. So, people who didn't go the days before, now decided to go. Turning the green day into red.

Crowd predictors are like weather predictors. they can look at past data and give you a best guess, but they aren't 100% accurate. Things change. Trends change.

It was busy, but we made due. We didn't get to do everything we wanted because our plan of attack didn't quite work as well at is should of. If I had planned on it being a red day I would have planned things differently. But overall, looking at the crowds of our trip overall, I think the crowd predictor was pretty accurate.

 

[KimberlyE]

I have felt they have been wrong for well over a year or two now. I don't even look at them anymore.

WDW is a LOT more crowded now that the economy has recovered quite a bit. Back in fall 2008 it was EMPTY.

^This. Much more crowded.

Also, Disney's changes to the ride lines have impacted how crowded the parks feel. There are a lot more people loitering around the walkways who used to be in standby lines, out of the way.

I have been suffering from the delusion of the 2008 crowds. My first trip was in September and it was virtually empty. We walked onto every ride except the headliners and even then our wait was at most one cycle. I was so disappointed that my following trips were much more crowded - even though we went at the same time. I have been searching for that elusive "park to ourselves" trip ever since.

You nailed it as to why that was a fluke. I now just use the crowd forecasters as one tool in my trip planning box and choose as best as I can. I have found that I need to quit comparing all other trips to my first one. An attitude adjustment can help so much in dealing with crowds!

 

[idofabric]

I think that with some of the new stuff, FP+, New Fantasy land, and some of the stuff at other parks could be throwing the crowd calendars off.
In my Sept trip they were spot on for most of the time. Oct long trip it was more iffy, but we had more people, and were trying to do several parks a day on a lot of days...

We have usuall gone to WDW for the same time several times of the year. Feb the 2 or 3 weekend, mid to low crowds. Memorial day, crap shoot, year to year. Mid Sept, usually low, but getting busy. Oct mid month, it has gotten a LOT more busy the last 2 years. Second week of Dec also got a lot more busy....

So I try and plan, but check the crowd calendars daily while there, even after getting to a park somedays. That has helped.

As for the secondary rides...There was NEVER a line for Figment, so we would sometimes just stay on and do it again without getting off. Not now! We have had a line the last year or more now. Never more then 20 min or so. And I'm kinda glad as there was people taking like Figment should go away....The worst was that Jungle Cruise was over 90 min on a day that was a 3-4, and the park was really not busy. We waited less for HM, POC, and SM all together then the wait would have been for JC!
But even the Dole Whip line was 25 min that day, it was rather warm. Maybe the FP+ has affected these rides.

 

[libinatorsmom]

I have often thought that you are exactly right - THE PARK RECOMMENED TO GO TO ends up being REALLY busy because so many now know of and use the crowd predictor sites that it is actually better to hit the parks they say will be busy... LOL.... the internet and these sites are not a secret I mean just look at all the users just here on DISBOARDS not to mention on all the other million Disney sites...

I for one am doing our MAY plan just based on WHAT I want to do those days and based on the fact that we got certain hard to get ADRs like BOG - we do not park hop - we enjoy our time - and we are going for only 4 nights - 5 days so we have to make choices.

 

[aj2hall]

I thought the parks were much more crowded than what I anticipated during my Feb 21-26 trip. It was as crowded on Tuesday morning in MK as Friday night. Also I noticed it got crowded much faster than I can ever remember. On the days we did rope drop there wasn't much time until it felt crowded and the ride times escalated. On past vacations it seemed like we had the park to ourselves that early.

We were there Feb 19 - March 3 and had the same experience. Touring Plans was really off for those days. Some days a park was predicted to be a 2 or 3 and it was a 5 or 6. We had a wonderful time, but the crowds & lines were a lot longer than expected. President's day week crowds, half marathon, mardi gras and the start of spring breaks all contributed to the crowd levels. I also think the weather this winter, lots of cold & snow has many families escaping to the south for a break. When I made our reservations, the cast member mentioned that she had a talked to a lot of people in snowy areas that day.

The only time we were able to walk on rides was our MK evening from 9 - 10 pm (no parade, 8 pm fireworks). We arrived at park opening but by 9:15 toy story mania, Soarin, Peter Pan and Kilimanjaro Safari all had 45 minute stand-by wait times. On our AK days, we didn't use out fast passes for Everest, because the fast pass lines were so long. Single rider lines were MUCH shorter.
Something different with the new FP, is that visitors are using it at park opening. With the old system, the earliest return times were 9:30 - 9:45. For our trip, anyway, that first hour window with relatively short stand by wait times seemed to disappear.

 

[HydroGuy]

I have not analyzed TP's WDW predictions, but their predictions for DLR are flawed because they do not follow their own rules. Maybe someone with time on their hands can look at the WDW predictions to see if they follow their own rules there.

See "Why I Am Skeptical of the Touring Plans Website DLR Crowd Calendar" http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=3196851

 

[GeorgiaHoo]

I like easywdw for lots of the info provided but can't fault any of the crowd predictions if inaccurate. There are all sorts of factors that could impact park attendance that can't be predicted. That said, I've noticed an uptick in crowds since we first visited Disney in 2003. We always go in offseason but even those times the parks are crowded now.

 

[raven69david]

I've stopped relying on those sites for years. Every year it seems the charts are more inaccurate. Best advice, avoid MK on a Saturday and/or go at night and do the attractions during the parades. Just don't do that while we're there.

 

[MKay]

I have wondered about the crowd level info...and all of the other info, really on the easywdw site as it looks as if the last update was in December 2013. Am I missing something? Shouldn't current information be figured in as factors? I am not complaining b/c I do appreciate the efforts. I guess b/c we only visit every 4-5 years or so and can only stay for about a week, I would appreciate being able to count on some accurate and dependable guidance. I had been trusting the easywdw info until I noticed the December date...and then some comments on DisBoards. I guess I will just go back to trusting in our own instinct...we got Park Hoppers and intend to get up and going early each day and hop if the park we choose to start in gets busy. Is there anywhere there that gives accurate info on the crowd numbers in the parks? If the Department of Transportation can do it on our highways, it seems to me that WDW can do the same...it would help the guests and CMs as well as the WDW planning. Just sharing how I have been feeling in hopes someone has some insight to share back. Three weeks until we will have spent our first day there.

 

[Networth]

I've stopped relying on those sites for years. Every year it seems the charts are more inaccurate. Best advice, avoid MK on a Saturday and/or go at night and do the attractions during the parades. Just don't do that while we're there.

And avoid MK on Mondays as well. People arrive that day for a week long trip and guess what park they hit first after they check in.

Side note yes the crowds are terrible I remember going in the late 80s and throughout the 90's and the parks were never this full. Think it's time for some major expansions and in my dreams a new park. That and quit building damn DVC and other new resorts...

 

[HydroGuy]

I like easywdw for lots of the info provided but can't fault any of the crowd predictions if inaccurate. There are all sorts of factors that could impact park attendance that can't be predicted. That said, I've noticed an uptick in crowds since we first visited Disney in 2003. We always go in offseason but even those times the parks are crowded now.

Actually you can and should fault them if they do not follow their own rules for how they define crowd levels. See my post on TP at DLR. A day listed as a "10" or a "9" is supposed to only happen 10% of the time each. They list "10" days 15% of the time and "9" days 18% of the time. So they do not follow their own rules.

It is one thing to be inaccurate on which days they predict to be a 9 or a 10. It is something else entirely to list more days as 9 or 10 and less days as everything else. In the extreme they could list every day all year as a 9 or a 10 and never 1-8. How would that help you decide what "crowded" means? When they list too many days as 9 or 10 it is the same thing but on a smaller scale.

 

[siskaren]

I have wondered about the crowd level info...and all of the other info, really on the easywdw site as it looks as if the last update was in December 2013. Am I missing something? Shouldn't current information be figured in as factors?

The last update for what? Do you mean the April calendar? Josh posts updates as soon as he gets them, so my guess is that no updates have been made to the April calendar since December. I just checked the March calendar, and an update was made on December 22, but the next one wasn't until February 8.

Also, I'm going to quote a post Josh made in another thread about this topic:

The crowd ratings on easywdw are relative to the six months before that date and the six months after that date. A "1," "2," or "3" on the crowd calendar does not indicate an empty park. Nor is it comparing crowds to past years. If you choose a date with a lower crowd level, it means that it's some of the lowest crowds this year. Those crowds are much higher than 2002, 2009, 2011 etc. but the low numbers are useful in picking the least crowded days this year.

Is there anywhere there that gives accurate info on the crowd numbers in the parks?

Since Disney doesn't release attendance figures, I would say no.