I am beginning to lose hope...

[JimmyV]

Let's assume you are right. How long do we have to wait to see it reflected in attendance and guest spending? Two years? Five?

Likely somewhere in between. Right now, you have a lot of FP+ "first timers" coming. (See post #167 above). Frustrated or not, these people are going to come to WDW. They are not going to cancel sight unseen. Let's be clear and honest about something right from the start. The people who post here who say that they have been to WDW 3 times since the implementation of FP+ comprise less than 2% of all guests. They are hard corp Disney fans who are not going to be shoved to the side. Most guests have not yet experienced FP+ or have done so only once. It is going to take some time to see if the "average" guest adjusts by lengthening their future stays; adjusts by shortening their future stays and trying Universal as an alternative; or adjusts by giving up. That can't be measured in one or two years. You know as well as I do that if Disney could have linked increased revenue to MDE/FP+, it would have shouted it from the top of Space Mountain. But no. They tied it to price increases. Too soon to see results. Maybe 3 or 4 years.

 

[Cormoran]

"Occupancy on our domestic hotels was up 8 percentage points* to 89% and per room spending was up 4%."
It is entirely possible for occupancy rates to be up because of the 60 day/30 day dichotomy. Can't tell. But again, the 4% increase in spending is attributable to what? Higher rates

I really don't know if this is true or not, but it sounds plausible. According to Jim Hill ( Disney Dish Podcaster) Disney play a shell game with the room occupancy %. When they anticipate occupancy slumps, they renovate large blocks of rooms and
they are removed from the inventory, therefore they can continue to report a high occupancy rate. Also, Disney's conversion of resort rooms to DVC on some properties has had the same effect. It makes their occupancy rates look a lot better.

 

[mom2rtk]

I really don't know if this is true or not, but it sounds plausible. According to Jim Hill ( Disney Dish Podcaster) Disney play a shell game with the room occupancy %. When they anticipate occupancy slumps, they renovate large blocks of rooms and
they are removed from the inventory, therefore they can continue to report a high occupancy rate. Also, Disney's conversion of resort rooms to DVC on some properties has had the same effect. It makes their occupancy rates look a lot better.

Say it isn't so.

 

[MrInfinity]

Let's assume you are right. How long do we have to wait to see it reflected in attendance and guest spending? Two years? Five?

Two years ago, when FP+ first started, I think the estimate was that it would be cancelled in a year or so.
A year went by, it didn't get canned, rollout carried on, and folks said another year.
Now two years passed, results are still strong, I would guess it's wait another year.
Maybe 3-5? In 3, it'll be 5, and in 5 it'll be 2 more.
It's kind of meaningless to keep saying Disney will suffer eventually, when the case was made two years ago, a year ago, and hasn't yet come to be.

Two years ago, we could say it was a gray area, we didn't know, etc. Yes. It was totally new and revolutionary. But once the people who said that back then were off in guessing their frustration would have a bigger dent on the parks than it really did, we can conclude that nothing will be different now, as more people embrace FP+ and the holdout against it dwindles. 2 years ago most posts were about how it would be awful. Nowadays, those are few and far between, and I'm seeing more posts about how it was actually pretty good.

And, to that, someone will point out a poll among those who still are frustrated by it, do they hate it or would they prefer it go back to the old way or have they come to like it as is, and that poll results will give them ammo to say no - look - of the 200 people who chose to answer, it was 50/50. Yeah okay. Meanwhile, 17,000,000 guests and counting go to the parks and have magical times.

If you think about it, FP- seems like so long ago. The last time I went to Disney World in a FP- situation was 2012. It's now 2015.

 

[JimmyV]

Two years ago, when FP+ first started,

??? The FP- machines were disabled in January, 2014. Holy time machine, Batman. That is only 13 months ago. http://www.ridemax.com/blog/the-end-of-an-era-fastpass-removed-from-the-magic-kingdom/

 

[MrInfinity]

??? The FP- machines were disabled in January, 2014. Holy time machine, Batman. That is only 13 months ago. http://www.ridemax.com/blog/the-end-of-an-era-fastpass-removed-from-the-magic-kingdom/

Right. Been in full swing for a year, and in various stages of testing for the previous year. When was FP+ first tested... I don't even remember... wasn't it the Deluxes that tested first? So long ago...

 

[JimmyV]

...wasn't it the Deluxes that tested first? So long ago...

Actually, I seem to recall that one or more of the All-Stars were in the test group. Nevertheless, as long as FP+ ran parallel to FP-, you couldn't really start the clock. During the testing, there was no 60/30 day window. And there was no tiering. And there was no limit of 3 since you could pull FP-. I think we have to start the clock in Mid-January, 2014. People can disagree on the length of time to determine success, but one year ain't it. And no one has said that the determination of success is "can it or keep it". It's not getting canned. The determination of success will be: "I am going to spend all 8 days of my vacation at WDW" vs. "I am going to spend 8 days in Central Florida, and 5 or 6 of them at WDW". Disney desperately wants people to do the former. It is absolutely too early to tell which way this will shake out because it is really the first or second visit after their first experience with FP+ that will tell the story. Since most guests have only taken their first FP+ vacation (or haven't yet), we aren't yet seeing the: "I've tried it. I have formed an opinion. And for my next trip I think I'll __________" response. Well, to be fair, we are starting to see that on the Dis. And those responses range from "Won't change a thing in the way we visit" to "I can do more for less" (or is it "less for more"....I get confused). With a few: "My next visit will be at US with FOTL access", and "I'm going to Disneyland" thrown in for good measure. But the opinions on this Board are too few and too skewed to count for much.

 

[goofyernmost]

Shoot, hit the button before I was done!

I was saying that my additional preplanned ADRs were more a result of getting a TIW card, but we ended up adding several on the fly in the MDE app. before I would have just eaten quick service, now I can check availability on the app and make reservations shortly into the future. This feature combined w/ the TIW discounts have increased and will continue to increase our number of ADRs.

Just for your future ease of usage. When that happens all you have to do is go to your incorrect post, click on the "EDIT" button and fix it and then post it corrected. Very easy and takes away a lot of anxiety.

Which is exactly what I've been saying for months now. The "uproar" over FP+ just doesn't exist in reality to the degree it does on the boards.

I would have to agree with you on that. Yes, there are going to be times when getting a wanted/needed FP is tough. However, I maintain that even with legacy that was a problem. I don't understand where people say that they didn't run out often. They always did when I went there. Did anyone ever try getting a FP for Toy Story after 11am. If you did it was because the gods were smiling down on you and that was even during slower seasons. The only way I ever got one, which was years after it opened was to get up at sunrise and get in line early to get in the park. At the time I did it they used to open the park before official rope drop, probably to avoid nasty injuries from people running to TSM all at once.

I did it for 4 of us only to find out after that the passes we got conflicted with another activity. I then had to go back to the kiosk and, literally, stop people that got 4 passes and ask if they wanted to go earlier so we could swap. I didn't even want to think about how much touring time that costs me, plus it made me feel like a street person begging for change.

This year only 9 days out, I asked for and received 3 or 4 choices of time of day (don't remember how many... at least 3). I found the approximate time that I felt would work and choose that. How can that be bad. My three overall passes were bunched about an hour apart, give or take, and after that time I can go to a kiosk and chose another for that park or park hop and get one when I get there. Yes, it does have a few drawbacks, but, none any worse then what legacy had even if you don't count the amount of time used to run after new ones every one or two hours.

 

[jeffbear]

And I say the opposite. The angst of people waiting to use kiosks is far greater than is demonstrated on these boards. We all have witnessed that. I can't speak to the angst of people trying to use their home computers in booking FPs, but if you think that the average, non-Dis'er is all rainbows and unicorns as they work through the process, then you're nuts.

Who says ANYBODY is all rainbows and unicorns about anything.

And the vast majority of angst I've witnessed in the parks in the last year is from people who had absolutely no clue how any of this stuff worked. And, trying to be realistic, they had ample opportunity to figure things out prior to leaving home if they had done even a modicum of research.

Again, I'm neither pro nor con the FP+ system. I see both pluses and minuses to it. But I am extremely weary of the hyperbola on both sides of this argument.

 

[JimmyV]

And the vast majority of angst I've witnessed in the parks in the last year is from people who had absolutely no clue how any of this stuff worked.

Does it matter what the source of the angst is, if there is angst? Does it matter if the clueless people have no one to blame but themselves for their disappointment if there is disappointment? My point was simply, while people may be tired of the anti-FP+ sentiment in chat boards, when some father in line at a kiosk curses to the heavens how much he hates the new system, I can promise you that there are not 9 other people in line telling him to shut up and that the system is great. Quite the opposite. When he throws his tantrum, they applaud and say: "You tell' em, pops!"

 

[JimmyV]

I don't understand where people say that they didn't run out often. They always did when I went there. Did anyone ever try getting a FP for Toy Story after 11am.

That's the one, singular example. And no one who ever visited DHS can question that. But that situation seems to get extrapolated across all parks for all rides. No other ride regularly ran out of FPs before 3:00 p.m. Did rides occasionally run out then, or close to it? Sure. But one cannot find fault with FP- because FPs were gone by 3:00 p.m.. If that were the case, then you'd have to fault FP+ just as much. How many headliners have FP availability after 3:00 p.m. now? Heck. Does TSMM have availability at 11:00 a.m. now? If TSMM ran out at 11:00 a.m. in the past, and runs out at 9:05 a.m. now, how is the situation "better"? All you did was shift the rush to get the FPs from 9:00 a.m. day of, to midnight, 60 days out. But in the end, if the test of success is: "Can I get a FP for TSMM at noon on the day that I am there", then no, the current system fares no better. Sure, there were rides that ran out by 4:00 p.m.. But if you didn't get one, whose fault was it, yours or the systems? No one has any sympathy for the guest who complains that they arrived at the park at 3:30 and all the FPs were gone. None. Does FP+ allow a person to walk into a park at 3:30 now and use a FP? Sure. But are we supposed to sing its praises because it assisted someone who didn't get to the park until 3:30? That is the benefit? Sorry, but getting shut out of FPs cannot be the measure of success or failure. FP+ results in "sell outs" just as FP- did. Sure, more different people get FPs under the new system. But it still runs out. The difference is, in the past, someone in DHS at 10:15 a.m. who did not have a FP for TSMM had a fighting chance of getting one. Now, that person has none.

 

[Silock]

Right. Been in full swing for a year, and in various stages of testing for the previous year. When was FP+ first tested... I don't even remember... wasn't it the Deluxes that tested first? So long ago...

Pretty sure it was late 2013. I know we went starting the day of the Super Bowl last year, and FP+ only (no FP-) had only been around for a couple of weeks at that point.

 

[cakebaker]

We made many trips during legacy fp. The last few trips we made- we could consistently count on TOT, RRC, TSMM, and Soarin' being out of fp's in the late afternoon at the latest. Often even earlier- but by 4 or 5, you could count on it. Was it guaranteed? No, but it happened often enough we had to adjust our schedules because the possibility was good enough that it would. And because we park hop, it was a problem in the morning parks trying to get FP's that had a return time we could work with even more than them running out completely in the afternoon. FP+ has corrected that for us- we no longer have to worry about getting FP+ for headliners. Unless some miracle occurs and we start wanting to see A&E, I don't expect we'll have issues this trip.

 

[JimmyV]

Often even earlier- but by 4 or 5, you could count on it. Was it guaranteed? No, but it happened often enough we had to adjust our schedules because the possibility was good enough that it would.

???
1. DHS closes at 7:00 or 8:00 for heaven's sake. How could anyone think that TOT, RRC and TSMM running out of FPs at 4:00 or 5:00 is a problem? Simple solution. Get to the park that closes at 7:00 by 3:00. Is that asking too much?

2. What time do TOT, RRC, TSMM run outof FPs now? Can you still get one for one of those rides at 5:00? 4:00? 3:00? 2:00?

 

[Cyrano]

FOLKS PSA Time

Please remember to be respectful to all posters.
If you cannot stay civic walk away from the thread before you are ejected head first

 

[cakebaker]

???
1. DHS closes at 7:00 or 8:00 for heaven's sake. How could anyone think that TOT, RRC and TSMM running out of FPs at 4:00 or 5:00 is a problem? Simple solution. Get to the park that closes at 7:00 by 3:00. Is that asking too much?

2. What time do TOT, RRC, TSMM run outof FPs now? Can you still get one for one of those rides at 5:00? 4:00? 3:00? 2:00?

Perhaps during off season they close that early, but I know when we were there it was 9 or later that they stayed open- we always liked going to the last showing of Fantasmic, then leaving with the park closed. We park hop- sometimes not arriving at the 2nd park until the early evening. But many times, we're there by 3-4 and that was our experience on with those rides. With FP+, we are guaranteed to ride the headliners no matter when we choose to arrive.

TOT, RRC, TSMM don't run out at all for us now. We have them in our "pockets" before we leave home. That's the beauty of FP+.

I know it doesn't work for everyone, but neither did legacy.

 

[JimmyV]

We park hop- sometimes not arriving at the 2nd park until the early evening.

So FP+ is an improvement because it aids the occasional hopper who enters a park at dusk and want to ride headliners at that park with little or no wait. And Disney needed to completely revamp its system to do that? I have no problem admitting that this unique style of touring is aided by FP+, but that seems to be catering to a pretty small subset of guests.
...and I say that I'm the most civil way and tone possible.

 

[WillAustin]

So FP+ is an improvement because it aids the occasional hopper who enters a park at dusk and want to ride headliners at that park with little or no wait. And Disney needed to completely revamp its system to do that? I have no problem admitting that this unique style of touring is aided by FP+, but that seems to be catering to a pretty small subset of guests.

I think it really caters to those who might normally complain about the long lines. Giving them 3 guaranteed short waits is preemptive damage control.

 

[JimmyV]

I think it really caters to those who might normally complain about the long lines. Giving them 3 guaranteed short waits is preemptive damage control.

True. But what realistic expectations of short lines should one have when they arrive a dusk? It's why we rarely hopped. You end up behind the crowd curve at park #2.

 

[cakebaker]

True. But what realistic expectations of short lines should one have when they arrive a dusk? It's why we rarely hopped. You end up behind the crowd curve at park #2.

But you don't anymore now. We don't have to fight for fp's with people who were collecting them all day, then using them at night when the lines were long.

We rarely arrived at dusk during legacy- we couldn't. If we did, we did it knowing there would be no fp's available for the popular rides. It's only since FP+ that we have the luxury of staying later at a morning park or taking a longer break during the day. With legacy we tried to always get there by 4 at any park, but it usually wasn't early enough. Legacy fp's for the popular rides consistently ran out by mid-late afternoon- sometimes earlier. I can honestly say, we never went to Epcot at 3pm and were able to get a FP for Soarin' our last few years of visits. And again, it caused issues with fp's in the morning park because the return times would quickly be past noon.

I'm not sure our style is all that unique. There's an awful lot of talk I read where people are doing the exact same thing- morning park, no fp+, afternoon parks using them. I'd love to know the number of people who buy park hopper tickets. This board is no indication, but if it were, there are an awful lot who do.

There's simply no way for any of us to know what the typical guest does in the way of visiting parks . But I'm betting my last dollar WDW knows and I'm confident when they created the new system, they were attempting to satisfy the majority of their guests.