Hurricanes in the REAL world

[Pollito916]

I just wanted to add that I went last year to WDW 9/14 - 9/21 (in-between Ivan and Jeanne) and we had beautiful weather. Ivan was headed straight for the area, but took a turn west about 2 days before we left. We were considering cancelling, but we were having our wedding there, and I wasn't sure if I could get the deposit back. Then as we were packing up, Jeanne started making her way over. But the week we were there, plenty of sunshine and Florida heat (Ohhh, the HUMIDITY!).

The best bonus was that the parks were EMPTY and we walked right on most rides. We never once needed a fast pass, and our longest wait was 20 min for Kalahari Rapids in AK (a great soaking ride on a hot day).

That's why we've scheduled another vacation for this year!

 

[JimMIA]

So Jim - what is early September looking like?

You're doomed!

You know, I hope nobody is taking my clowning around with ColoradoBelle and others seriously. I have NO idea what this hurricane season will bring. I haven't EVER stayed at a Holiday Inn Express.

Having said that, there is this one little biddy tropical wave at 50W and about 12N that we're keeping an eye on...but NHC says conditions for development are not favorable. It's still WAY early in the season.

 

[anniet]

Jim-

I am CONVINCED that two of those hurricanes last year were due solely to the fact that DH and I signed an agreement to purchase a house in Cocoa.

We were just testing it out, and it is indeed hurricane proof, so we bought it.

We apologize for the inconvenience. All Floridians may return to your regularly scheduled lives already in progress.

 

[WDWLVR]

You're doomed!

You know, I hope nobody is taking my clowning around with ColoradoBelle and others seriously. I have NO idea what this hurricane season will bring. I haven't EVER stayed at a Holiday Inn Express.

Having said that, there is this one little biddy tropical wave at 50W and about 12N that we're keeping an eye on...but NHC says conditions for development are not favorable. It's still WAY early in the season.

Jim please say it isn't so. First the Farmer's Almanac and now you say we are doomed! Nooooooooooooooooooooo! Wouldn't it be nice if it was that simple. I knew you were kidding around. Just wanted to see what you would say.

 

[manning]

Isn't there someone at the hurricane center saying that hurricanes go in cycles like sun spots (sun spots peak every 11 years. Don't know what the hurricane cycle is) and we are now in the high activity cycle.

 

[JimMIA]

Isn't there someone at the hurricane center saying that hurricanes go in cycles like sun spots (sun spots peak every 11 years. Don't know what the hurricane cycle is) and we are now in the high activity cycle.

Yes, hurricane seasons do run in cycles. As the overall warmth and moisture levels in the tropics increase, that creates generally more favorable overall conditions for tropical storm development. We're in one of those cycles this year, as we have been since 1995, and it is those overall global conditions which lead forecasters to say this season may be more active than the average.

The official outlook for 2005 is "The outlook calls for 12-15 tropical storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3-5 of these becoming major hurricanes. ...This prediction reflects a very likely continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995."

Seasonal forcasts are not the same thing as forecasting actual storms. NHC's forcast for this morning is "Tropical storm formation is not expected through Saturday."

And, of course, there could be 100 storms, but that doesn't mean that you will experience one. Odds are, you won't.

Once a storm system does develop, however, NHC is pretty accurate at predicting its path three days ahead, and a lot more accurate 5 days out than they like to admit. They have to err on the side of caution, because if they don't people will get complacent and put themselves in jeopardy.

 

[laceemouse]

Jim, thanks for the great thread! I was raised in south Louisiana and lived in Florida for many years. I agree that the media blows things up to boost ratings. EVERY flu season kills people, lots of people die from the cold EVERY winter and the heat EVERY summer. As far as the shark thing, I saw Jaws in High School in Pensacola and have been scared to swim too far out ever since, scariest movie I have even seen!!!!

 

[pogopossum]

since you're taking requests, jim, put us down for an eastern caribbean dc starting sep 3 for a week. sure would like to actually make it to virgin islands this time.

 

[JimMIA]

since you're taking requests, jim, put us down for an eastern caribbean dc starting sep 3 for a week. sure would like to actually make it to virgin islands this time.

To be serious for a change, I would NEVER worry about taking a cruise in hurricane season. Unless a hurricane hits your port of debarkation and you can't get out/back in, a hurricane is not going to have much impact on your cruise. Cruise ships are much faster than hurricanes, and they will simply go around on the back side of the storm where the weather is good. They may change or juggle stops, and you might miss some port you were really looking forward to, but the cruise itself will be fine.

The worst disruptions I've seen have been cruises being extended a day or two because the ships couldn't get back in due to weather. That makes for some scrambling to rearrange flights, but that's about all. On the bright side, you get a free day or two of extra cruising.

 

[MiaSRN62]

The worst disruptions I've seen have been cruises being extended a day or two because the ships couldn't get back in due to weather. That makes for some scrambling to rearrange flights, but that's about all. On the bright side, you get a free day or two of extra cruising.

True Jim, BUT, sometimes the next cruise waiting to leave port gets a day or two LESS of cruising. This happened last year during the hurricanes. Some people had 7 night cruises cut down to 4 or 5. I do believe they got some sort of compensation for this though.

 

[pogopossum]

true we did get some compensation for our trouble, but it was a real hassle. no, i don't worry about being on the ship, as the captain told us in 2000, she is so big that they can even sail in the storm and only take on minimal damage, and they did once during irene, but they won't do that if at all possible to avoid the storm. due to cabin flooding, and a full ship with no way to move those affected, and half a ship of seasick passengers and crew, it was not a repeatable occurence. but like i said before we have yet to have an eastern caribbean cruise and would like to this time. our lesson learned is that we be driving to port this time so that we can change our plans easier. no interest in a less than seven day cruise again.