Hurricane Matthew Closes WDW - Reopens Saturday, October 8th

[AngiTN]

Not to overly minimize things, but Matthew, based on current NOAA reports, is no longer a CAT 4 storm. Its wind speed has continually dropped over the last couple of days from 140 MPH to a reported 115 MPH now. That's only 5 MPH above the upper limit of a CAT 2. Projections say that by the time it is near Daytona it will "only" be a CAT 1. This slowdown will likely be due to the fact that the western half of the storm will be over land that will deny it the open water needed to powers such storms. While ANY hurricane is not something to be take lightly, this thing isn't going to likely be a "monster" by the time it nears Orlando.

And unless things change (which they may) it's not going to land in FL. While that doesn't mean it's not going to be significant, it's very much less significant than direct land fall is

 

[gatechfan99]

A few points about what may or may not happen:

-I've been following this for almost 2 weeks when it first came off the coast of Africa (I believe I was the first person to raise concerns about this on these boards last week)
-No matter what "they are saying", they don't know anything for specifics right now!
-Every day, with every model, the timing and location changes. The overall trend has been slower and more to the west.
-If you're thinking of driving in Friday night or Saturday, after "they" say it will be over, you may wind up stuck on the interstate in hurricane force winds with no power or gas at places off the interstate. This is truly a threat to your life if you do this.
-To make things even more confusing, the best hurricane models have both started showing it looping next week. While less certain than the next few days, there is a possibility that it could hit again next week and make even bigger headaches with a place already short on power, gas, and food.

Point is, I've had to give up and go ahead and cancel completely our trip. There's just too much uncertainty and even if it does exactly what is forecast this AM, that is still going to cause large difficulties with a Disney trip at any time this weekend. I'm frustrated and disappointed and my kids are freaking out, but we just can't risk getting caught up in this. I would recommend that to any others supposed to drive down in the next 72-96 hours.

 

[Geoff_M]

They've said repeatedly that it's going to rev back up once it's over the water again. Though of course that's just estimation and can change any old time. Projections are different depending on what you look at. Weather.com is still pretty hardcore about it.

Current NOAA projections show that it will stop being a CAT 3 storm north of Miami. I erred in saying above that it will be a CAT 1 by Daytona, but it will be no more than a CAT 2. NOAA doesn't show it moving back up to CAT 3 at any time after be becomes a "2". Again, a "CAT 2" is bad enough (I recall that Katrina was technology a "2'" when it reached NO), but it doesn't appear that Orlando will be subjected to a anything like what hit Haiti.

 

[MakiraMarlena]

I think the thing to remember is that if the authorities tell you to stay indoors, stay indoors. If Disney gets to the point where they are telling you to stay indoors, nothing is going to be open anyway. If the authorities tell you to get out, then get out ASAP.

 

[Pixiedustspreader]

UCF just postponed/rescheduled their 8PM Friday football game with Tulane. We are scheduled to land at SFB 10:30P Friday. Ugh.
Good luck everyone.

 

[Skywise]

Current NOAA projections show that it will stop being a CAT 3 storm north of Miami. I erred in saying above that it will be a CAT 1 by Daytona, but it will be no more than a CAT 2. NOAA doesn't show it moving back up to CAT 3 at any time after be becomes a "2". Again, a "CAT 2" is bad enough (I recall that Katrina was technology a "2'" when it reached NO), but it doesn't appear that Orlando will be subjected to a anything like what hit Haiti.

The problem with Katrina wasn't the storm per se - They survived that pretty easily as it passed. I remember the news reports and people were dancing around just as the storm had passed. It was the levees breaking almost immediately after from the storm surge that did all the catastrophic damage.

 

[SaintsManiac]

The problem with Katrina wasn't the storm per se - They survived that pretty easily as it passed. I remember the news reports and people were dancing around just as the storm had passed. It was the levees breaking almost immediately after from the storm surge that did all the catastrophic damage.

Correct. Hurricane Katrina did not flood the city. The inadequate levees did. The hurricane actually shifted at the last minute and hit Mississippi directly instead.

 

[Geoff_M]

Current NOAA projections show that it will stop being a CAT 3 storm north of Miami. I erred in saying above that it will be a CAT 1 by Daytona, but it will be no more than a CAT 2. NOAA doesn't show it moving back up to CAT 3 at any time after be becomes a "2". Again, a "CAT 2" is bad enough (I recall that Katrina was technology a "2'" when it reached NO), but it doesn't appear that Orlando will be subjected to a anything like what hit Haiti.

OK, I'm going to correct myself as NOAA has updated the projection map from earlier today (which was the basis of my earlier comments). It looks like they are now saying it will now take longer to drop in speed and the coastline nearest Orlando has been moved from a Hurricane "Watch" to a "Warning." They also appear to show the storm moving closer to land with the "Eye" just off the shore.

 

[yulilin3]

we are officially under a Hurricane Warning for the next 36 hours

 

[SaintsManiac]

I'm actually rather amused at the two sides in the thread. There are a few doomsday folks on one side saying it's going to be akin to Armageddon and everyone should stay far, far away. You risk life and limb by going (well, maybe no one has said that but they've been VERY alarming)
And the other side sees a 24, maybe 48 hour window where it's going to be dicey but in no way a harm to be there. Could even be called fun
Seems to be very little in between.
I've ridden out a hurricane and am not going in to this trip blind. I also know to only read limited sources for it. The same type of "alarmist doomsday folks" run some of the weather sites too. Sure does increase their hits, doesn't it. Makes you wonder....

I've been through many storms/hurricanes. They are all unpredictable. If I was already on Disney property I would not be concerned.

 

[HopperFan]

Current NOAA projections show that it will stop being a CAT 3 storm north of Miami. I erred in saying above that it will be a CAT 1 by Daytona, but it will be no more than a CAT 2. NOAA doesn't show it moving back up to CAT 3 at any time after be becomes a "2". Again, a "CAT 2" is bad enough (I recall that Katrina was technology a "2'" when it reached NO), but it doesn't appear that Orlando will be subjected to a anything like what hit Haiti.

Folks on here TRAVELING do not have the luxury of waiting a day or two to make a decision to travel. They have to go with current information and there are projections that vary. Everyone needs to make a decision for themselves based on all possibilities being presented.

I don't think anyone is predicting Haiti, if for nothing else there is no comparison in infrastructure. We could tolerate the same storm much better. But the storm is huge and it's the side effects that must be considered: power outage, gas shortage, flooding, tornadoes etc.

At this point nothing is guaranteed and nothing can be ruled out. As in this ............

we are officially under a Hurricane Warning for the next 36 hours

and if it stagnates those hours could last longer.

 

[csgsu]

anyone got an updated cone?

 

[Accident]

And the other side sees a 24, maybe 48 hour window where it's going to be dicey but in no way a harm to be there. Could even be called fun
Seems to be very little in between.

I've ridden out a hurricane and am not going in to this trip blind. I also know to only read limited sources for it. The same type of "alarmist doomsday folks" run some of the weather sites too. Sure does increase their hits, doesn't it. Makes you wonder....

I'm also going into this storm with personal experience in hurricanes and being at disney in them. I would pick disney as the place to ride out the storm or some situation like extended power outages after it if needed. I don't live more than a couple miles from property. Disney has a strong history of buildings built for much worse storms, fast cleanup and keeping the power on.. Anything is possible but be prepared to be in the room a day or two with proper supplies and food and this is just a bump. The reward of lower crowds after it generally makes up for the lost time and cost of just being there..

Where I am concerned is this is my first storm in this rental house. I just have more unknowns that back where I used to live, I knew exactly when it wasn't safe to be there and time to go somewhere.

Speaking of "fun". I just happened to have some pizza and stuff coming from nyc on thursday..

My past experience was if my home was safe and I could safely travel, get to disney. I feel safe at disney but everyone has to make up their mind.. I have 2 trips during or after a hurricane and 2 near misses under my belt, I love disney in the storms.

 

[Lehuaann]

Several iPhone alerts going off around us at BOG...

National Weather Channel just put out an official Hurricane Warning for this area

 

[OnceUponATime15]

Given the changes just overnight with the models now showing a loop pattern developing, change is the only thing you can count on with this storm.

As far as it staying a cat 3 or becoming a strong 2 - that is wishful thinking. All a hurricane needs to develop is warm water, and driving winds - the water in the Bahamas & off the Florida coast is definitely warm enough for that to happen. NOAA is still calling for a cat 4 close to the Florida coast on their 11am update and have extended the Warning criteria northward up to Volusia county. No longer a watch area. Landfall is a possibility as long as the cone of uncertainty includes land.

I understand those with trips planned wanting & hoping for the best. But the reality of the situation is quickly becoming hard to ignore. I watched Rick Scott earlier, the Govenor is asking people not to wait to take action but to act now. I'm sure he is not fear mongering. He is trying to be proactive.

 

[yulilin3]

and if it stagnates those hours could last longer.

I'm expecting OCPS to cancel school in Orange Co for tomorrow and Friday.

 

[AngiTN]

I'm also going into this storm with personal experience in hurricanes and being at disney in them. I would pick disney as the place to ride out the storm or some situation like extended power outages after it if needed. I don't live more than a couple miles from property. Disney has a strong history of buildings built for much worse storms, fast cleanup and keeping the power on.. Anything is possible but be prepared to be in the room a day or two with proper supplies and food and this is just a bump. The reward of lower crowds after it generally makes up for the lost time and cost of just being there..

Where I am concerned is this is my first storm in this rental house. I just have more unknowns that back where I used to live, I knew exactly when it wasn't safe to be there and time to go somewhere.

Speaking of "fun". I just happened to have some pizza and stuff coming from nyc on thursday..

Yum.

If I was making a once in a lifetime trip I'd likely view things differently. I would not want to have even a day ruined by something as significant as this. And one thing is pretty much certain, there will be significant rain and wind for a day, at least. More than an avg summer storm for sure. So yeah, that could well put a huge damper on a trip and if it was my big trip of a lifetime, I'd be rethinking it, since all the parties involved are allowing for free changes right now.

Since that doesn't describe us, we are going and know what we are getting in for. As soon as I was able to get our flights switched to tomorrow, I relaxed. I didn't realize how tense I was yesterday waiting on the alerts to come out.

 

[Doug S]

The storm was able to quickly regain composure after going through Cuba, thus the bump in the forecast to be a Category 4 when it nears Florida. If it moves any much more west, Orlando will be getting a good brunt of the storm. This is a very serious situation that shouldn't just be laughed off or compared to Charley or other storms that have impacted Orlando.

 

[piglet1979]

Current NOAA projections show that it will stop being a CAT 3 storm north of Miami. I erred in saying above that it will be a CAT 1 by Daytona, but it will be no more than a CAT 2. NOAA doesn't show it moving back up to CAT 3 at any time after be becomes a "2". Again, a "CAT 2" is bad enough (I recall that Katrina was technology a "2'" when it reached NO), but it doesn't appear that Orlando will be subjected to a anything like what hit Haiti.

I just looked it up and Katrina was a cat 3 when it it Louisiana.

 

[Flamingeaux]

On the "bright" side, I see some ADRs for BoG are open. Not as many as I thought there would be.