Hurricane Isabel is a possible problem for us....

[coli]

jwfla422 - thanks for the thoughts. we are such a small island, but we are hardy people. there has to be something about having to build out of 8 inch 'breeze block' instead of wood. You are not allowed to build with wood here and it makes the difference (IMO). It's been amazing for the island - we are a population of 65k living on a rock 1mile wide and 22 miles long, so this has really brought the community together.

Frann - Atlantic Hurricane season is june 1 - november 30 - though it does slow down after the mad rush of september - all that churning of the ocean makes it cooler water and hurricanes do not like cold water.

boxermom7 - I understand the wish have the storms move north - the gulfstream, what an amazing thing!

hope everyone has a wonderful evening - the worst thing about being without power for 2 days was not being able to check the DISboards!!!!! Sad, I just can't go cold turkey

 

[Dee & Greg]

Hate to say it.. but hoping another storm goes through between now and then, and that we catch a window!

 

[C.Ann]

I recall reading on a message board somewhere last year or so a message from a meteorologist from Florida who said that the worst possible time (weatherwise) to go to WDW is late August till the end of September (due to hurricanes, tropical storms, and the subsquent downpours that come with them..)..

I wish I had known that before WE made a mid-September trip.. For two weeks we had everything from 3 to 4-hour showers to 8 hour PLUS downpours (and worse) - for something like 13 out of 14 days!! We did our best to "keep on going" but on one of those days the roads were actually flooding in the Orlando area and the news stations were reporting that the police were saying that people should just stay indoors, off the roads, so that's what we did..

Between the rain and the horrible humidity, I don't think I would EVER go to WDW in September again - even if it meant going at a more crowded time.. I don't mind a bit of rain - I expected it and brought plenty of disposable rain ponchos - but that was just TOO MUCH!!

I'll keep my fingers crossed that you all get lucky and don't experience the same thing! Have a great trip!!

 

[Disney-Kim]

apirateslifeforme - Yes we remember Floyd. We were there that week. There was a lot of rain and the parks closed due to high winds and possible flooding. But it wasn't that bad. The CBR evacuated people to the YC/BC convention center due to flooding. People living on the coast of FL evacuated to Orlando. We just watched CNN all day. It was kind of exciting to be in the middle of drama. We got notices from the BC all day updating us on the storm and possible problems.
The Clambake dinner was 1/2 price for people too.

Uncleromulus - Yes it missed Fl but...the outer rain bands were HUGE and we had a lot of rain and wind.

I didn't want to worry everyone...just keeping an eye out.

We have had 3 Hurricanes/Trop Storms affect our trips but we still went and had a great time. We continue to travel in Sept. anyway so it must not be that bad.

We had 1 TS affect flights so we left a day early w/ no penalty from the airlines 1998
We had 1 hurricane close the parks. 1999
We had 1 TS cause lots of rain for 3 days 2002

 

[Doc and Family]

For all of you Hurricane watching:
All of us residents of the Gulf Coast/Eastern Seaboard/Bermuda, etc, are quite aware of the fickle nature of these storms and of the damage they can do. If you want the actual forecast ahead of everyone else, the weather channel included go to this site:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov look down the left hand side and click on hurricanes. This will take you to the site where they list all the current active hurricanes along with their projected path, directly from the national hurricane center. Also, explainations of why they project the paths, projected strenghth, etc.
And may all of you enjoy a hurricane free trip!

 

[jenfur]

Okay, I can't remember the name of the hurricane, but my family was in WDW during one in 2000, the week of Sept 15-22. We didn't even know about it till my family from home called to check on us. It got rainy but the parks were great- the day of the the big ol' hurricane was the best day of our whole trip. My momis getting a little worried about this year- she hasn't been in the fall before- but I am not worried.

 

[brownii]

My husband and I were on the Inspiration and went right through the middle of Isadore in the Gulf of Mexico last September. It was not really that bad except the 55 ft waves kept rocking us to sleep, and we had to fight to get out of bed to enjoy the ship. Oh yeah.......ruined my camera trying to take outside pics of the storm.

This year I will be in WDW with a good friend and her daughter, and here comes Isabel!!! Oh well, we will make sure we have our ponchos and extra sandals, etc.

My husband and I had a great time despite Isadore and we will have a great time despite Isabel. Wonder what the name of the hurricane will be next September when I am on a trip????

 

[Bethel]

I have a meteorologist friend (PhD) who gave me the following "unofficial" update on Isabella for my trip the 20th through the 27th:

It looks like Isabella may want to join you in Orlando. But there's a lot of uncertainty in the models. The latest one hooks Isabella north and takes it right up the east Coast, only barely touching Florida. But I'd say for sure there will be a little rain during your trip. It looks pretty cool, too, (for this time of the year). It probably looks like highs of 82-85, coolest toward the end of the week.

Hopes this helps. He gives me vacation forecasts alot and is really good.

 

[brownii]

As long as there are no tornadoes we will be just fine. We don't really mind the rain unless they shut down too many rides. we are from Mississippi and sometimes it rains for about a month straight here.....maybe skipping a day or so in between.

Keep us updated, please. Thanks!

 

[Uncleromulus]

Jenfur:
We had a similar experience during a trip to Williamsburg Va. some years back. A hurricane (can't recall which one) was threatening, and the nite before our trip, they were calling for high winds, urban flooding and even possible evacuations. But even then the storm appered to be turning slightly away from the coast, so we decided to go anyway. Next morning when we left, they were still predicting the "worst", but the Weather Channel hurricane "expert" seemed quite flummoxed as he was looking at the hurricane path and it DID appear to be turning and weakening.
I told Mrs. U that if, on the way down, it even seemed to be getting bad, we'd turn around and come back.
Bottom line--tho cloudy and a bit windy, it didn't rain a drop in Williamsburg the entire time. The place was virtually empty and we had things almost all to ourselves.
Moral-it's way too early to tell where Isabella will go. It may very well hit Florida, or come near Florida. It may not. They simply don't know.
So we watch and wait and hope for the best. Heck--we're leaving on 9/19 ourselves!!

 

[jeannej]

Originally posted by frannn
We are flying into West Palm Beach, FL, on 10/7. Should we be concerned, or is hurricane season pretty much over by then? Thanks!

For future reference: Hurricane season begins June 1st and ends December 1st. The peak season is in September.

Isabel may or may not be a factor in Florida. Meterologists won't know until next week. Way to may factors right now that could effect steering currents, winds and intensity. My hope is that it will blow itself out to see and not affect anyone.

Jeannej

 

[dvcgirl]

I've been watching Isabel closely now as well since we have a trip planned beginning next Tuesday.

www.hurricanetrack.com is a good site to check out if you want to watch this thing. If you're slightly obsessive like I am, this site gives updates a couple of times a day.

The Weather Channel has it slightly north of the Leeward Islands on Sunday and isn't even hinting at what it may do beyond that.

Here's what Hurricane Track is saying as of this morning.........

"For the next several days- perhaps for more than a week to come- Isabel will be the top weather story. Right now the hurricane is pretty much on track and is doing what it has been forecast to do. The NHC track takes it north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico as a category three hurricane. Beyond about five days, the models split in their solution of where Isabel will end up. The GFS model run at 2am EDT shows Isabel turning out to sea. Each run of the GFS seems to show slightly different solutions that each have dramatic implications. It is still too soon to know where Isabel will ultimately end up. For now it is moving right along and not bothering any land areas."


And so for right now it's a "wait and see" kind of thing. It's comforting to know that one of the computer models has it turning and going out to sea....let's all hope it takes that run and misses any land!!

 

[Golter]

I'm also a little fanatical about tracking Hurricanes. I have found that the best two websites are the National Hurricane Center www.nhc.noaa.gov and www.hurricanealley.net.

 

[frndofpooh]

I have absolutely no experience in weather forecasting, but looking at Isabel's current location, speed and predicted track, it looks like that IF it hits around Orlando, it will do so approximately Thursday, September 18 (give or take a day). Anyone with weather experience have any more accurate predictions?

 

[jwfla422]

Sometimes the hurricanes speed up and sometimes they slow down.

The steering of it will strongly depend on the weather systems affecting the US next week. As I mentioned in an earlier post lets hope for a strong front to sweep across the country early in the week to deflect it away and keep it in the Atlantic.

Unfortunately we have lucked out many times with this scenerio, one of these days we won't get so lucky

You just have to keep your eyes on the weather. It's like this a lot in September and even well into October.

 

[alvernon90]

Originally posted by jwfla422
Sometimes the hurricanes speed up and sometimes they slow down.

The steering of it will strongly depend on the weather systems affecting the US next week. As I mentioned in an earlier post lets hope for a strong front to sweep across the country early in the week to deflect it away and keep it in the Atlantic.

Unfortunately, it doesn't look like that's going to happen. According to the discussion at the NOAA site, a ridge along the U.S. east coast will put a lid on Isabel, keeping it moving generally west (toward the Bahamas) for the next five days, but then it will weaken.

We can keep our fingers crossed, but it looks like Isabel may very well be headed straight for Florida, and at present speed, it will be a washout at WDW sometime in the neighborhood of Sept. 18 to Sept. 23.

 

[GeekChic]

YIKES!!! You just named our exact vacation dates!!! Uhhh ohhhhhh...

We can keep our fingers crossed, but it looks like Isabel may very well be headed straight for Florida, and at present speed, it will be a washout at WDW sometime in the neighborhood of Sept. 18 to Sept. 23.

 

[dvcgirl]

Well, I wouldn't worry just yet Geekchic. Right now none of the forecasts are saying much about what Isabel will do beyond this Sunday. They all seem to agree on where it will by then. After that the forecasts are different. None have mentioned the US mainland yet, at least none that I've seen. We'll probably know lots more by the weekend.

Either way, we're going to WDW from Sept 16-21st.

And look at it this way, there are many days at WDW when it rains, some days are completely rainy with no hurricanes around. Any hurricane would have to be pretty bad for them to close the parks...they've only done that once.

Here's hoping the thing blows out to sea!!

 

[GeekChic]

Thanks DVC girl! I've been there during the rainy season too, whatever happens there is tons to do in WDW I'm just hoping it won't effect our flights in and out is all (though if we had to stay an extra day at WDW that wouldn't be TOO horrible...

Here's hoping for decent weather for us all! And REALLY hoping that it dies out at sea and leaves poor Bermuda alone, they've had more than enough already!!!

----------------------------------------------------

9 days till we surprise Dad with GF SCL...

 

[HurricaneWarning]

Hello everyone,

I'm Mike Welch and I run a tropical weather site at HurricaneWarning.net and I invite all to check out the map and advisories on hurricane Isabel and also the live Storm Chat. Isabel is going to start to take a more westerly movement soon and forecast have her taking a NWN curve and be North of Puerto Rico on Sunday eve. That is about as far as the forecast go for now. Storms at this location at this time tend to make a curve toward the East coast. IMO I would keep an eye out if I lived in the Carolina's.

I wish you all a safe trip to WDW whatever this hurricane does.

Be safe,
Mike W